How to improve carbon allocation modeling—The Achilles’ heel of vegetation models

By using eco-evolutionary principles as a basis for plant behavior, modelers in ESM and EEP aims to develop a new generation of vegetation models that produce less uncertain predictions.

An invited review paper was published on how to improve carbon allocation modeling in forest and vegetation models (Franklin et al. 2012). The results, which were presented at a number of conferences (e.g., Franklin 2012), represent an important step in the ongoing collaboration between ESM and the Evolution and Economy Program (EEP) of IIASA in developing a new generation vegetation model based on eco-evolutionary principles.

Large-scale vegetation models, such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), are essential components of most analyses of climate change and the potential for mitigation and adaptation. However, despite the continuous addition of new features, these models remain fundamentally hampered by the lack of eco-evolutionary organizing principles and constraints, which leads to accumulating uncertainty as new features are added. By using eco-evolutionary principles as a basis for plant behavior, the aim is to develop a new generation of vegetation models that produce less uncertain predictions. 


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Last edited: 03 October 2013

CONTACT DETAILS

Michael Obersteiner

Principal Research Scholar Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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