Assessment of national forestry policies and their impact on Copenhagen Pledges
Since the climate negotiations in Copenhagen (2009), many countries have submitted quantitative economy-wide GHG reduction targets, proposals, and actions for 2020.
A 2012 policy brief produced by the Netherlands Environmental Assistance Agency (PBL) and IIASA showed for the first time the extent to which the most effective domestic climate policies in major emitting countries would contribute to reducing GHG emissions and also to meeting the pledges. The emission reductions resulting from most important domestic policies were quantified and compared with the countries’ reduction proposals.
The impact of domestic policies was calculated based on the PBL FAIR policy model which uses calculations for land-use policies from the IIASA forestry model G4M, and literature. In Brazil and Indonesia, emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), which are very uncertain and difficult to project, play a dominant role. As a result the study showed that total aggregated pledges do not deliver the 2020 emission levels needed to limit global temperature increase to the 2°C climate target (see Figure).
Main collaborators
