13 February 2013
During his visit to the National University of Singapore (NUS) and invited by the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (FASS) Wolfgang Lutz is going to give a Seminar at the National University of Singapore (NUS) entitled "Is Singapore’s Birth Rate too Low?". The seminar will take place on Wednesday, February 13 between 2pm-4pm.
The seminar will address this question "Is Singapore’s Birth Rate too Low?" from several different perspectives and show that it is actually a rather complex question. First, we will discuss measurement issues including problems of translating rates that are observed in a calendar year into average life time children per women. Next, we will discuss the issue of changing age-dependency ratios and compare the contribution of fertility to that of migration and increasing life expectancy. Finally, we will discuss the role of population heterogeneity – and in particular the educational attainment distribution – in assessing what is an economically desirable level of fertility. In particular, we will discuss whether better education of the young cohorts can compensate – and possibly more than compensate – through higher productivity for their smaller number. Other possible criteria for what is considered to be a desirable level of fertility will also be discussed including national strength and global climate change. I will conclude with the proposition that a fertility level somewhat below replacement level may be optimal for a highly educated modern society such as Singapore.
Last edited: 01 February 2013
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