25 July 2016

Celian Colon joined EEP & ASA

Celian Colon, a PhD student at Ecole Polytechnique, France and Imperial College's Grantham Institute, UK joined the Evolution and Ecology program and the Advanced Systems Analysis program as a winner of the Mikhalevich Award-2015. His research work focuses on The Global Fragmentation of Production Amplifies Systemic Risk in Supply Chains.

The global fragmentation of production amplifies systemic risk in supply chains

Unexpected localized disruptions can cascade along supply chains and induce disproportionately high losses. Mitigating such risks can be challenging as nowadays, through outsourcing, supply chains are becoming more complex and specialized. We formulate a stylized model in which firms are embedded in a supply chain and mitigate the risk of supply disruption using inventories. The mitigating strategy of one firm influences the profit of the other; we analyze such interactions using evolutionary game theory. We find that the mitigating effort that each firm should commit largely varies according to the position of the firm in the supply chain. Vertical fragmentation, whereby the design and production stages of a good or service are split across multiple firms, reduces their incentives to maintain inventories and gives rise to systemic risk. Finally, we show how decision-makers can mitigate systemic risk using a network indicator based on the ecological concept of “trophic level” to allocate inventory.

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Last edited: 08 March 2017


Colon C, Brännström A, Rovenskaya E, & Dieckmann U (2017). The fragmentation of production amplifies systemic risk in supply chains. In: IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017, 27 February-1 March 2017, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

Colon C, Brännström A, Rovenskaya E, & Dieckmann U (2016). Systemic risks and cascading disruptions in complex supply chains. In: EEP Symposium, July 2016.

Schewe J, Heinke J, Gerten D, Haddeland I, Arnell NW, Clark DB, Dankers R, Eisner S, et al. (2014). Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9): 3245-3250. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1222460110.

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