Cláudio Cristino

Cláudio Cristino's studies probabilistic models of times between events, in order to optimize actions of external interventions to the systems, or developing risk prevention and reduction actions.

On the systems, various characteristics can be observed and we can establish the quality of “operation” of the system by evaluating indexes that expose how reliable is determined system for your assignment. Logically, the system vulnerability can also be evaluated in order to establish optimal conditions to ensure states probabilistically protocols corrective or preventive measures. Models that take into account the “virtual age” system was initially developed to add an aging/rejuvenation factor including operating time of the interference fractions before interventions in the systems and processes of renewal are called generalized renewal process (GRP).

The study of GRP has been key role to the understanding, modeling and maintenance of dynamic systems in several areas of knowledge. They deal with the challenge of restoration using stochastic modeling. For this, GRP generalizes a family of probability distributions, adding whole parameters rejuvenation parameter dedicated primarily to reflect the renewal imposed by the interventions in the system.

The aim of the Dr. Cristino’s post-doctoral project is the development of models of generalized renewal processes based on generalized extreme value distribution with applications in analytical studies of times between rare events and their consequences in formalizing risk of systems. More specifically, the interaction with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis groups allows the formulation of sub-models especially applied to those problems that are targets groups: rare phenomena models (floods and droughts, for example); models for natural catastrophic events with or without environmental or social consequences such with earthquakes, landslides, or agricultural pests; vulnerability and risk of financial networks.

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Funding: CAPES (Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate)

Nationality: Brazilian

Program: Advanced Systems Analysis Program

Dates: February 2017 - present

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Last edited: 14 March 2017


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