The new book presents and discusses the science of what is known about the drivers of fertility, mortality, migration, and education in different parts of the world and what this knowledge implies for the course of population and human capital over the rest of the century. Specifically, the authors attempt to illustrate how the population future looks different when education is systematically added as a core demographic dimension.
This book addresses systematically and quantitatively the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models.
Six background chapters summarize past trends in fertility, mortality, migration and education; examine relevant theories and identify key determining factors; and set the assumptions that are subsequently translated into alternative scenario projections to 2100. These assumptions derive from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents. Another chapter details their translation into multi-dimensional projections by age, sex and level of education.
The book’s final chapters analyze the results, emphasizing alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying aging and the quantification of alternative population and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. An appendix and associated Web link present detailed results for all countries.
The book is to be published and launched by September 2014.
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Vienna, Austria.
Last edited: 22 May 2014
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