This effort at understanding systemic risk is carried out in close collaboration with IIASA’s ASA Program and aims at identifying indicators of systemic risk and resilience across different network-structured natural and anthropogenic systems.
Three of EEP’s publications in 2013 shed new light on systemic risk in living systems.
Figure 1.Two alternative ecological communities emerging from evolutionary processes. Through intrinsic dynamics, the high-trophic-level community eventually becomes critically unstable, followed by an abrupt transition to the low-trophic-level community.
 Takahashi D, Brännström Å, Mazzucco R, Yamauchi A & Dieckmann U (2013). Abrupt community transitions and cyclic evolutionary dynamics in complex food webs. Journal of Theoretical Biology 337: 181–189.
 Omori R & Sasaki A (2013). Timing of the emergence of new successful viral strains in seasonal influenza. Journal of Theoretical Biology 329: 32–38.
 Mpolya MA, Yashima K, Ohtsuki H & Sasaki A (2014). Epidemic dynamics of a vector-borne disease on a village-and-city star network with commuters. Journal of Theoretical Biology, in press. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013 .11.024.
 Puchkova A, Rovenskaya E, Kryazhimskiy A & Dieckmann U. Inclination analysis can yield early-warning signals of economic recessions, in preparation.
Last edited: 27 May 2014
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313