Consumer preferences strongly influence the adoption of new end-use energy technologies, with consequent effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and therefore global energy system transformation. Therefore, in addition to the direct costs of vehicle technologies, the MESSAGE team has incorporated non-monetary vehicle purchase considerations (e.g., range anxiety, risk aversion, and lack of refueling or recharging infrastructure) into the modeling framework. These features vary in a heterogeneous way for different types of consumers, as well as across countries. The ultimate goal is to better understand which incentives might help to nudge consumer behavior towards a low-carbon transformation of the global vehicle market.
Other critical uncertainties influencing the future uptake of alternative-fuel vehicles are related to technology progress and economics. Therefore, in collaboration with researchers at Toyota Central R&D Laboratories (Japan), ENE scientists are developing a new modeling tool for quantifying the potentially necessary conditions for achieving various future vehicle mixes. The tool will complement the MESSAGE integrated assessment modelling framework by helping to evaluate the possibility of scenarios of achieving long-term GHG and petroleum reduction targets.
 McCollum DL, Wilson C, Pettifor H, Ramea K, Krey V, Riahi K, Lin CB, Edelenbosch OY, Fujisawa S (forthcoming). Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: an application to consumers’ vehicle choices.
Toyota Central R&D Labs, Japan
University of East Anglia, UK
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA
University of California, Davis, USA
Last edited: 13 May 2016
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