Technology diffusion

In 2014 the endogenous model formulation for technology diffusion constraints, whose prototype was developed by Volker Krey of the Energy (ENE) Program and Arnulf Grubler of the Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Program was further refined and parameterized in 2014.

The parameterization is based on analysis by researchers from TNT and the University of East Anglia which has analyzed historical growth patterns of energy technologies, covering an ever-growing range of technologies: energy supply technologies, different types power plant types (fossil, nuclear, wind, photovoltaics), and various end-use technologies (passenger aircraft, cars, compact fluorescent light bulbs, and mobile phones).

The research responds to the need for a more solid, empirically founded representation of technology diffusion or upscaling constraints, which are critical for understanding the pace at which energy systems may change in the future. It is thus central for a more informed policy discussion on the attainability of ambitious climate change targets.

The research is part of the project, Alternative Pathways to sustainable development and climate Stabilization (ALPS), is a collaboration between the ENE, TNT, and the Research Institute for Innovative Technologies for the Earth (RITE), Japan.

Last edited: 01 April 2015