Non-CO2 Gases and Ambitious Climate Targets

As pathways for near-complete decarbonization of global energy systems take increasingly concrete forms, the role of remaining non-CO2 greenhouse gases for meeting long-term climate targets becomes an increasing concern. 

(c) Dreamstime

(c) Dreamstime

Without concerted efforts to curb non-CO2 emissions from agriculture, waste management and industry, full decarbonization of energy systems would typically leave annual non-CO2 emissions of 10 to 30 Gt CO2eq by the end of the century, thereby threatening to undo a good part of the climate change mitigation achieved through energy sector transformations. Abatement of non-CO2 gases can be addressed through both technical measures and behavioral changes. Lasting changes in human behavior are expected to take time and much of the non-CO2 abatement required to meet the global warming targets of this century will therefore need to come through technical solutions.

Over the course of fifteen years, the Air quality and greenhouse gases (AIR) program has developed a global framework within the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model to assess future technical mitigation potentials for anthropogenic emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6). This includes estimates of mitigation costs, sources of uncertainty, and scopes for further technological development. As presented in a series of publications, the non-CO2 module of GAINS presents one of the most detailed frameworks to date for analyzing the full set of future anthropogenic non-CO2 greenhouse gases, their technical mitigation potentials and costs.

Research Projects

Global methane emissions

Agriculture and fossil fuel energy supply each contribute almost 40% to global anthropogenic methane emissions, with waste and wastewater sectors making up about 20%. More

Global emissions of fluorinated gases

IIASA's GAINS model assesses emissions of fluorinated gases with great detail  More

European climate policies

Starting in 2008, the GAINS model team has with regular intervals produced future policy scenarios of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions for the European Commission’s Directorate for Climate Action (DG-CLIMA).  More

HFC Mitigation Potential and Costs in India

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are the fastest-growing greenhouse gases. IIASA jointly with Indian partners undertook India’s first analysis for understanding the potential growth in India’s HFC emissions across sectors if these adopt high GWP HFCs as alternatives to HCFCs More

Key Findings


Resources

AIR has produced global emission fields for a range of future mitigation scenarios for non-CO2 gases as an input for modeling of future climate impacts. Data can be downloaded from the GAINS database.


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Last edited: 24 July 2018

CONTACT DETAILS

Lena Höglund Isaksson

Senior Research Scholar Pollution Management Research Group - Energy, Climate, and Environment Program

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313