Wolfgang Lutz at the Future Trends Forum
VODCAST - 05 June 2013 Wolfgang Lutz
Wolfgang Lutz’s presentation on global human capital flows emphasizes the following points:
- Throughout history there have been very few human beings, (due to famines, wars, diseases).
- At the moment there are about 7 billion people on the planet, and according to a probabilistic forecast, global population will peak around 9 billion before slightly declining at the end of the century.
- Sub-Saharan Africa, with 800 million people, is likely to double or even triple due to high birthrates and a young population base.
- Eastern Europe is characterized by a shrinking population.
- Economic growth starts with the study of the people who produce it.
- Social change always comes from the bottom up with the emergence of new generations with more education.
- The key in Europe will be whether population aging can be compensated by a base of highly educated young people.
- China has taken Singapore as a model, investing massively in primary education.
- India is quite different from China, with almost half of the population, (particularly females) without any formal education.
- Variables such a labor force participation and health also present interesting phenomena.
- In Europe, in countries like Austria and Germany, migration has mostly been low-skilled migration.
- Science magazine has recently done a review of global population trends.
- The correlation between education and health also presents interesting phenomena.