Risk analysis and modeling

The Risk Analysis and Modeling research theme advances methods and tools for evaluating risks arising in socio-ecological systems and their management options. 

© Radenmas | Dreamstime

© Radenmas | Dreamstime

Quantitative risk analysis links models of event severity, exposure and vulnerability of system components (people, assets, environment), and system linkages.

Understanding the physical events involved in extreme events and natural disasters, as well as their consequences, is becoming increasingly complex due to socioeconomic shifts, climate change, and the systemic and dependent nature of the hazards.

Social and governance complexities make effective risk-management even more challenging.


The major focus of the Risk Analysis and Modeling lies on:

  • Quantitative modeling of extreme events and systemic risks through the use of advanced statistical techniques and multi-agent based modeling.
  • New methods for the economic modeling of natural disasters and climate extremes using diverse economic theories.
  • Novel approaches for modeling stakeholder preferences and interactions, analyzing institutional dynamics and social complexity.


The latest applications of risk modeling tools include:

  • Extreme drought and flood risks including risks of multiple breadbasket failures
  • Systemic risk of financial  and migration networks
  • Disaster risk assessment using a demand-driven growth model
  • Evolutionary dynamics of stakeholder plurality


Models developed by IIASA researchers or currently used in risk analysis include: SHELscapeCATSIM and participatory decision support models.

Naqvi | IIASA

CATSIM user interface


MACRO uses an integrated catastrophe-macroeconomic modeling framework to study the case of cyclone risk management and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) achievement in Madagascar. More

Internal Displacement Risk (IDR)

IDR will examine the direct and indirect economic effects of internal displacement by using applied systems analysis and economic models, while focusing specifically on recent instances of displacement.  More

Flood Resilience

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and Zurich Insurance Group have established a collaboration alliance to launch a new project on Community flood resilience. More

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Last edited: 01 March 2018


Junko Mochizuki

Research Scholar

Risk and Resilience

T +43(0) 2236 807 576




International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313