Quantitative risk analysis links models of event severity, exposure and vulnerability of system components (people, assets, environment), and system linkages.
Understanding the physical events involved in extreme events and natural disasters, as well as their consequences, is becoming increasingly complex due to socioeconomic shifts, climate change, and the systemic and dependent nature of the hazards.
Social and governance complexities make effective risk-management even more challenging.
The major focus of the Risk Analysis and Modeling lies on:
The latest applications of risk modeling tools include:
The research currently feeds into the following projects:
Disaster risk reduction (DRR) investments not only protect productive assets and lives, but if implemented appropriately, they could yield a number of additional benefits that could enhance well-being and resilience. While this fact is not yet sufficiently recognized by a wider policy audience, the DRR Co-benefit project aims to bridge this knowledge gap by quantifying the direct and indirect benefits of DRR investments. More
A projected increase in climate extreme events and an increasingly inter-dependent food supply system pose a threat to global food security. The Multiple Breadbasket Failure Initiative is a cross-cutting project at IIASA that looks into systemic food systems risks, cascading effects and catastrophe modelling in the agricultural sector. More
COACCH (CO-designing the Assessment of Climate CHange costs) is a Horizon 2020 project that aims to advance knowledge regarding climate change impacts and policy that can be used directly by stakeholder communities. More
IIASA is a core member of the Flood Resilience Alliance, an innovative partnership between research, development and humanitarian NGOs and the private sector that works together for making at step change with regard to policy, finance and practice of managing floods and other climate-related hazards towards increased community resilience. More
Last edited: 10 October 2019
Klimek P, Poledna S, & Thurner S (2019). Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery. Nature Communications 10 (1): e1677. DOI:10.1038/s41467-019-09357-w.
Guzmics S & Pflug G (2019). Modelling cascading effects for systemic risk: Properties of the Freund copula. Dependence Modeling 7 (1): 24-44. DOI:10.1515/demo-2019-0002.
Gaupp F, Hall J, Mitchell D, & Dadson S (2019). Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming. Agricultural Systems 175: 34-45. DOI:10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313