The scenarios of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) explore the feasibility and costs of global and regional energy transformations towards normative objectives for energy access, environmental impacts of energy conversion and use, and energy security. The GEA database includes detailed quantitative information for 41 pathways that fulfill these objectives by reaching specific and clear targets for:
Moving from these objectives to a specific pathway the GEA distinguishes three critical choices or 'branching points' (see Table below) with major implications for the nature and direction of the energy transformation. The first branching point describes alternative levels of energy demand and efficiency improvements, and leads to distinct pathway groups of low, high and intermediate demand (GEA-Efficiency, GEA-Supply and GEA-Mix respectively).
Another branching point explores alternative transformations on the supply-side with the main aim to test the flexibility of different supply-side configurations to fulfill the GEA sustainability objectives.
A third branching point concerns changes in the transportation system. A 'conventional' transportation system relying on liquid fuels has substantively different implications for supply-flexibility compared to an 'advanced' transportation system dominated by electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles. Although any major transformation in an end use sector that entails fuel switching will impact the energy supply, the magnitude of impact from transformations in the transportation systems warranted its inclusion as an explicit branching point.
Branching point (1):
Branching point (2):
Branching point (3):
(electricity / hydrogen)
Full Portfolio (all options)
Restricted Portfolio (excludes or limits particular options):
Last edited: 11 November 2013
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313