04 May 2015
Matthias Jonas gave a talk at the 16th Austrian Climate Colloquium
He argued that an easy-to-apply metric or indicator is needed that informs non-experts about the time in the future at which a prognostic scenario ceases to be (for whatever reasons) in accordance with the system’s past. Dr. Jonas anticipated that the way of constructing prognostic models and conducting systems analysis will have to meet a quality standard by:
- better diagnostic data handling (retrospective learning)
- specifying the models outreach limits
- safe-guarding complex models by means of meta-models which fulfill the above
