Traditionally, FEWES sectors are being governed by independent policies, and the impact of each policy on the other systems is inadequately considered — if at all. The project investigates coordinated robust solutions accounting for complex linkages and differences in spatial and temporal scales between agriculture, energy, water systems, potential exogenously and endogenously generated collective systemic risks and new coherent feasible policies enabling FEWES nexus security. The policies take into account inter-regional and international trade, current and future national and international agreements and directives (WTO agreement, EU Water Framework Directive, Common Agricultural Policies, etc.), pollution and GHG emissions targets, current and future energy and water technologies, insurance markets, financial instruments, grain and water storage, direct and indirect exchange of resources, e.g. pollution trading, virtual water trade, etc.
The goal of the project is to develop a harmonized approach for integrated robust management of FEWES nexus under natural and human-related intentional and unintentional threats. Developing new linkage methods under asymmetric information allows integrated modeling without revealing information about individual sectorial models. In order to achieve long-term sustainable functioning of FEWES systems, robust policies comprise both interdependent strategic long-term (anticipative, ex-ante) decisions and short-term (adaptive, ex-post) decisions (adjustments), which are designed via integrated stochastic optimization models based on novel ideas of systems’ linkage under asymmetric information and other uncertainties. Nested strategic-operational and local-global models, including deterministic and stochastic GLOBIOM, are used in combination with non-Bayesian probabilistic downscaling procedures for analyzing and managing global systemic risks having local implications. Quantile-based indicators are used to cope with new type of risks and extreme events generated by decisions of various stakeholders and potential adversaries. A harmonized Ukrainian data base is compiled to serve as models input. Appropriate strategic-adaptive Decision Support System (DSS) are developed enabling a dialogue among national and international stakeholders.
In contrast to traditional studies using different research principles, isolated (independent) models and data from diverse regions at different time intervals, this project aims at systematic and coherent multimodel approaches by a research team from seven non-profit institutes of the National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine, working in collaboration with IIASA and other national and international organizations.
Last edited: 06 December 2018
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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