2013-14 SA-YSSP Research Areas and Supervisor Teams

Background and motivation

The extractive industries are the economic backbone of many African nations, South Africa among them. The governance of these industries, however, is far from satisfactory. Indeed a recent report (Africa Progress Report 2013) observes that, in many countries, multinational companies and political leaders collude to swindle the citizens out of their just revenue from their natural resources. The prevailing alliance between corporations and state officials, the report continues, excludes both local communities and civil society. Extractive industries, in consequence, "leave the poor behind" and "harm the environment". This framework is unsustainable and has led to conflict in some countries. Whilst the project spans the sub-Saharan Africa, its main focus will be on South Africa – specifically on the fragile Karoo Biome and the proposed exploitation of its shale gas through fracking. Both environmental organisations and local communities, who oppose this project, fear that the Karoo’s underground water may be irreversibly polluted by the fracking process.

Research theme

Mining, in most African countries, is an on-shore industry. In consequence, it inevitably competes for space with human and other ecological actors. Mining, therefore, increases the risk exposure of both sets of prior occupants. According to the theory of plural rationality, we can expect to hear four distinct "voices", each expressing its concerns over human vulnerability and environmental disturbance in a way that cannot be reconciled with the others. In the Niger Delta of Nigeria, for instance, the oil companies (individualist voice), the state (hierarchical voice), the activist groups (egalitarian voice) and the marginalized local communities (fatalist voice) hold wildly divergent views on environmental justice and governance. Since the aforementioned alliance between corporations and state officials results in the exclusion of the other two voices, conflict can easily erupt, and mutually constructive options can be overlooked. The project argues that, by finding ways in which these excluded voices can gain access, and then ensuring that all four are responsive to (rather than dismissive of) the others, governance will be improved. The research will: elicit the risk perceptions of different environmental actors; examine how these "risk trajectories" interact; tease out ways of modifying these "whole system" interactions so as to evolve better forms of governance.

Relevant skills

Good background in environmental sociology, anthropology, economics, resource sustainability, social policy, and a good understanding of the discourses on land and resource contention in different African countries.

Recommended reading

• Africa Progress Panel, 2013. Equity in Extractives: Stewarding Africa's natural resources for all. Retrieved from www.aricaprogresspanel.org
• Thompson, M. 2000. “Understanding Environmental Values: A Cultural Theory Approach”. Retrieved from https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/articles_papers_reports/710.html/_res/id=sa_File1/711_thompson.pdf
• Thompson, M. 2008. Organizing and Disorganizing. Axminster: Triarchy Press.
• Twine, T., Jackson, M., Potgieter, R., Anderson, D., & Soobyah, L. (2012). Karoo Shale Gas Report. Econometrix (Pty)(Ltd).
• Verweij, M. 2011. Clumsy Solutions for a Wicked World. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Watts, M. 2006. Empire of oil: capitalist dispossession and the scramble for Africa. Monthly Review, Vol. 58, No. 4. Retrieved from http://www.monthlyreview.org/0906watts.htm#Volume.

Background and motivation

Unsustainable urban development as a consequence of increase in population, continuing trends of urban sprawl, and transport patterns with higher degree of vehicle activity dependent on high ener-gy intensive private motorized transportation is considered as one of the prominent cause of climate change at local and global level. It has also lead to cities face physical and environmental ailments. Many cities in the developing countries including South Africa are falling prey to this burgeoning phenomenon, which warrant a change in the planning perspectives towards development based on sustainable green city concepts in order to make cities spatially and environmentally sustainable. Although efforts are being made at different regional, national and global levels, the challenge remains to make detailed spatial analysis with respect to dynamicity in city functions with time and the causal feedback relations among the control parameters influencing city development. Thus, there is a need for empirical as well as theoretical investigations to understand these causal relations, which would aid in evolving plausible policy planning interventions and development management guidelines, so that the cities shall become physically and environmentally sustainable and liveable, if implemented.

Research theme

Urban sustainability is observed to be a multi-dimensional concept which includes environmental, economic, social and political dimensions and therefore the achievement of sustainability in urban areas is a demanding challenge particularly in the wake of challenge of climate change. It is evident that environmental concerns are most important for sustainability from climate change point of view, although other issues are also pivotal in achieving sustainability. It is observed that there is a correlation between climate change and urban functions, urban land use, urban sprawl, vehicle dependence, and energy use in modern cities leading to many consequences including air pollution, high CO2 emissions and rise of temperature, deterioration of environment, change in urban ecosystem and consequent deterioration of living conditions, etc., influencing both micro climate at local level and macro climate at the global scale.

Therefore, there is a need for developing quantitative links between land use, urban transport, urban open space and microclimate based on the causal feedback relations among the various control parameters influencing city development at the city level through smart combination of durable and flexible urban planning and design that uses natural resources, social capital and harmonized public participation in a responsible way to ensure development of proper and sustainable green city development.

The expected outcomes of this project envisaged are evolving of planning and design guidelines and adaptive development processes for development of sustainable green cities in the wake of climate change challenge. The investigation shall also develop models, which can be employed as tools for planning and facilitate policy and decision making.

Relevant skills

The skills required for this investigation include collection of data from both primary sources and secondary sources; statistical analysis, use of software such as SPSS or SAS; and more importantly system analysis skill, application of system dynamics modeling and use of software such as POWESIM / VENASIM / STELLA will be very valuable.

Recommended reading

• Achillas, C., Vlachokostas, C., Moussiopoulos, N., & Banias, G. (2011). Prioritize strategies to confront environmental deterioration in urban areas: Multicriteria assessment of public opinion and experts’ views. Cities, 28, 414–423.
• Beck, M. B. (2011). Cities as Forces for Good in the Environment: Sustainability in the Water Sector. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources: University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia. Retrieved from http://cfgnet.org/archives/587
• Beck, M. B., Thompson, M., Ney, S., Gyawali, D., & Jeffrey, P. (2011). On governance for re-engineering city infrastructure. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers (Vol. 164, pp. 129–142). Presented at the Engineering Sustainability. doi:10.1680/ensu.2011.164.2.129
• Holden, M. (2006). Urban indicators and the integrative ideals of cities. Cities, 23(3), 170–183.
• Huang, S.-L., Yen, C.-T., Budd, W., & Chen, L.-L. (2009). A Sensitivity Model (SM) approach to analyze urban development in Taiwan based on sustainability indicators. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 29(2), 116–125.
• Moussiopoulos, N., Achillas, C., Vlachokostas, C., Spyridi, D., & Nikolaou, K. (2010). Environmental, social and economic information management for the evaluation of sustainability in urban areas: A system of indicators for Thessaloniki, Greece. Cities, 27, 377– 384.
• Olewiler, N. (2006). Environmental sustainability for urban areas: The role of natural capital indicators. Cities, 23(3), 184–195.

Background and motivation

Responses to disaster risk are frequently grounded in narrow and short term risk responses. This may result in adaptations that reduce rather than increase resilience, or alternatively reduce transformability by exacerbating lock-in traps (Adger et al. 2011). Such responses more often than not result in inefficient or maladaptations and even conflict and require the inclusion of multiple sources of knowledge, with vertical and horizontal links between stakeholders.

According to the IPCC (Field et al. 2012) “an iterative process of monitoring, research, evaluation, learning, and innovation can reduce disaster risk and promote adaptive management in the context of climate extremes (high agreement, robust evidence). Adaptation efforts may benefit from iterative risk management strategies because of the complexity, uncertainties, and long time frame associated with climate change (high confidence). Addressing knowledge gaps through enhanced observation and research can reduce uncertainty and help in designing effective adaptation and risk management strategies”. An iterative risk management process requires numerous methods to be adaptively used in each of the steps. Despite the many challenges in developing an “enlightened” systems approach that combines solid science with policy appeal, such an approach is well placed to significantly advance the research and policy fields.

Iterative and collaborative risk assessment is difficult to achieve in practice and the operational challenges are not well understood (Bown et al. 2013). In multi-cultural societies with historical inequalities such as South Africa, cultural influences also play a role with people from different cultural backgrounds having different perceptions of risk and different views on the appropriateness of adaptation strategies (Adger et al. 2013). Least powerful stakeholders on the margins of society are also more likely to be negatively impacted by the adaptation strategies of more powerful stakeholders. The awareness of these stakeholders of short and long term risks, and the impacts of their responses on the larger system, can be stimulated when scientists play the role of facilitators and ‘bridging agents’ in a social learning process (Roux et al. 2011).

Research theme

In this study we wish to develop and test an iterative and adaptive approach to risk management by linking science and modeling to stakeholder responses, in a reflexive manner. The assumption will be tested that stakeholders who are actively involved in interrogating information, assessing their perceptions and modifying their actions and responses are more likely to collaboratively and adaptively respond to climate change challenges (Plummer and Baird 2013).

The project will focus on the iterative development of information, conceptual framework development, focus group discussions and participatory analysis and interrogation of existing strategies. Focus groups will be primary land users in the Eden District Municipality, South Africa, and decision makers and municipal, provincial and national levels.

The study will primarily assess risk perceptions and adaptations in working landscapes along the Garden Route coastal zone, between the mountains and the sea, and will engage land managers and decision makers in agriculture, forestry and possibly urban and tourism development. The participatory design of the research calls for using methods, such as using surveys, focus groups, participatory mapping, companion modelling, and potentially a small workshop in order to include diverse groups of stakeholders (Voinov and Bousquet 2010), and World Café Conversations (Slocum 2003).

Relevant skills

We wish to engage and co-create with two types of applicants: those with an aptitude for risk analysis and climate adaptation, including modeling; and those with an interest in participatory processes, participatory modeling and assessment. All applicants should please have an interest in transdisciplinary research in complex adaptive systems.

Recommended reading

Key readings are indicated with an *.

• *Adger, W. N., Brown, K., Nelson, D. R., Berkes, F., Eakin, H., Folke, C., … Tompkins, E. L. (2011). Resilience implications of policy responses to climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change, 2, 757–766.
• Ascough, J., Maier, H. R., Ravalico, J. K., & Strudley, M. (2008). Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making. Ecological Modelling, 219, 383–399.
• Jones, R. N., & Preston, B. L. (2011). Adaptation and risk management. WIREs Clim Change, 2, 296–308. doi:10.1002/wcc.97
• *O’Brien, K., Pelling, M., Patwardhan, A., Hallegatte, S., Maskrey, A., Oki, T., … Mechler, R. (2012). Toward a sustainable and resilient future. In C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, … P. M. Midgley (Eds.), Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (pp. 437–486). Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://ipccwg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-Chap8_FINAL.pdf
• *Plummer, R., & Baird, J. (2013). Adaptive Co-Management for Climate Change Adaptation: Considerations for the Barents Region. Sustainability, 5, 629–642.
• Roux, D. J., Murray, K., Nel, J. L., Hill, L., Roux, A., & Driver, A. (2011). From Scorecard to Social Learning: A Reflective Coassessment Approach for Promoting Multiagency Cooperation in Natural Resource Management. Ecology and Society, 16. Retrieved from http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art24/
• *Slocum, N. (2003). Participatory methods toolkit - a practitioners’ manual. Flemish Institute for Science and United Nations University, Antwerpen: King Baudouin Foundation. Retrieved from http://archive.unu.edu/hq/library/Collection/PDF_files/CRIS/PMT.pdf
• *Voinov, A., & Bousquet, F. (2010). Modelling with stakeholders. Environmental Modelling & Software, 25, 1268–1281.

Background and motivation

The current South African (SA) government has embraced a policy agenda to decarbonise and to transform the country’s energy generation to a cleaner, sustainable, more renewable and environmentally friendly paradigm of electrification. More understanding is required of the current complexities in implementing the policy targets and objectives, including amongst technological lock-inn and path dependency on coal generated energy, stakeholder participation in the implementation process, including the roles and interests of physical and organizational stakeholders, like ESKOM, leadership and capacity. For instance, large scale transformation of the energy system will require involvement of stakeholders from civil society, business, academia into decision-making regarding siting for installations and electricity transmission infrastructure. This involvement will help to shape strategies for implementation of policy targets.

The outcome of this project is to determine whether participatory governance in SA can address the challenges of transforming the energy system in SA, in general, and to address challenges of technological and economic lock-inns. In assessing the attempted transition, it is important to determine whether conditions for appropriate environmental leadership exist in South Africa to ensure sustainable transformation of the energy system.

Research theme

Participation is central to good governance and various participation modalities require analysis. Traditionally the energy system planning approaches depended heavily on technical expertise. However, with a move to promote good governance and consequently public participation the views of all stakeholders in decision-making has become paramount, especially regarding planning of the electricity infrastructure as the examples from other regions, like the European Union, indicate that currently public acceptance is one of the major barriers for further development.

The outcome of this project is to explore case studies of past and current energy infrastructure deployment. Furthermore, the project aim to identify perceptions of stakeholders regarding required forms of public involvement into decision-making process, their feasibility and possible barriers for implementation of this form of participatory governance. Based on historical evidence and stakeholders perceptions the research will develop recommendations for national policy-making process.

We plan to apply the following methodology: case study method, stakeholder’s quantitative surveys to identify perceptions and in-depth qualitative interviews with leading stakeholders from the energy sector in South Africa as well as other methods like social network analysis.

Relevant skills

Candidates should be proficient in both quantitative and qualitative research skills, and should have a strong interest in environmental leadership, stakeholder analysis, participatory governance and green governance related questions.

Recommended reading

• Coelho, V. S. P., & Favareto, A. (2011). Participatory Governance and Development: In Search of a Causal Nexus. Geography Compass, 5(9), 641–654. doi:10.1111/j.1749-8198.2011.00446.x
• Gauthier, J., & Wooldridge, B. (2012). Influences on Sustainable Innovation Adoption: Evidence from Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design. Business Strategy and the Environment, 21(2), 98–110. doi:10.1002/bse.716
• K. Musango, J., Amigun, B., & C. Brent, A. (2011). Sustainable Electricity Generation Technologies in South Africa: Initiatives, Challenges and Policy Implications. Energy and Environment Research, 1(1). doi:10.5539/eer.v1n1p124
• Komendantova, N., Patt, A., Barras, L., & Battaglini, A. (2012). Perception of risks in renewable energy projects: The case of concentrated solar power in North Africa. Energy Policy, 40, 103–109. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.12.008
• Winkler, H. (2005). Renewable energy policy in South Africa: policy options for renewable electricity. Energy Policy, 33(1), 27–38. doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00195-2

Background and motivation

Energy efficiency, as well as investment and operational costs are important factors in designing and implementation of the most suitable industrial systems and technology. This also applies to the mining industry, an important part of the South African economy. The Deep-mine Collaborative Research Program 1998-2002 defined the energy profile of a typical ultra-deep mine, and thus provided the basis for exploring ways of reducing energy costs. It also demonstrated the complexity of modeling the energy needs of an ultra-deep mining that are dominated by power requirements of ventilation, cooling, refrigeration and pumping. The reports from this program can be used as a guideline for development of an efficient and sustainable mining production system. Sustainability, however, requires further research focused on quantifying environmental and social impacts of the mining industry, modeling effectiveness of technological innovations, as well as providing methods and tools for integrated analysis of the underlying mathematical models aimed at exploring synergies and tradeoffs between indicators characterizing diverse aspects of mining and its impacts.

Research theme

The research will focus on model-based analysis of current and future mining technologies, in particular: energy efficiency and use, environmental impacts (especially emissions and waste), capital and operating costs, and the system wide impacts of technological innovations. The main aim is to provide support for development of energy efficient systems that shall provide the desired level of productivity with reduced energy consumption, lower costs, and smaller environmental impact.

The current electrical energy consumption, carbon emissions and waste production data for mines shall be sourced and analyzed. Indicators characterizing the important attributes of the system (such as diverse costs, efficiency, environmental and social impacts) shall be defined and computed. Then, a mathematical model relating the decision variables (e.g., chosen technology, production level, and available resources) and the indicators will be developed. Finally, methods for integrated model analysis will be adapted to enable use of such a model for supporting the design and implementation processes in the mining industry. Such a decision-making support system will be available for the consulting services for mines that assist in development of demand side management programs, connecting the components of complex energy management for building models customized for specific cases. Finally, such a decision-making support can also be used for building the skills and capabilities of professionals in the mining industry.

Relevant skills

A successful candidate shall have keen interest in applied system analysis and proven skills in at least one of the following areas: operations research (in particular methods and tools for mathematical modeling, integrated model analysis, data analysis), energy systems, energy efficiency, and mining industry.

Recommended reading

• Deepmine, 1998-2008, Task Definition, Task 6.5.1, Task 13.11, Task 16.1.2.
• Govender, S. (2008). Energy Saving Mechanisms In The Mining Industry: A Case Study Of Switching Off Non-Essential Power, 44–60.
• LCG Energy Management Group. (2009). Investigation of Current Research Related to the Reduction of Energy Usage in Mines Through Recycling, Reuse, and Other Means, 23–28.
• Makowski, M. (2009). Management of Attainable Tradeoffs between Conflicting Goals, Mathematical Modeling and Applications. Journal of Computers, 4(10), 1033–1042.
• Wierzbicki, A., Makowski, M., & Wessels, J. (2000). Model-Based Decision Support Methodology with Environmental Applications. In Mathematical Modeling and Applications. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
• More reading suggestions are posted at https://github.com/iiasa-ime/SAYSSP.

Background and motivation

The past experience of developing countries shows that rapid economic growth is often associated with high environmental pollution and environmental services degradation. These countries are known to produce in order to satisfy consumption in the `industrial world’ at the expense of their own environment. The proper economic planning should include the feedbacks between growth and environmental quality with the aim of creating strategies for long-term environmentally sustainable economic development. Environmental degradation and costs embodied in trade should be accounted for in order to fully understand economic growth. This project focuses on developing data bases, modeling tools and methodologies for creating strategies for sustainable national and regional development and applying them to African countries and regions.

Research theme

The project contributes to the on-going investigation on how the decline in the environmental quality caused by increasing production affects optimal economic growth both qualitatively and quantitatively. Therefore, the project has the following objectives:

• Elaborate appropriate demographic-economic-environmental global and regional models reflecting complex linkages between population growth, economic development and the environment;
• Reveal open databases and calibrate the models for some South African regions/countries;
• Characterize optimal scenarios of economic growth, carry out sensitivity analysis and estimate uncertainty;
• Investigate ways to reduce carbon emission in Africa.

Young researchers with a background in environmental sciences, earth (socio-economic) systems, ecological and mathematical modeling will be considered for this project.

The methods to be employed include: statistical investigations; data analysis; economic growth theory; optimal control theory; econometrics; numerical methods for ordinary and partial differential equations. The expected outcome should be a collaborative publication in an international peerreviewed scientific journal.

Relevant skills

Ecological modeling, economic growth theory, mathematical analysis, differential equations, optimization, statistics, programming.

Recommended reading

• M. Jonas and S. Nilsson, Prior to Economic Treatment of Emissions and Their Uncertainties Under the Kyoto Protocol: Scientific Uncertainties That Must Be Kept in Mind, Water Air Soil Pollut: Focus DOI 10.1007/s11267-006-9113-7.
• E. Rovenskaya, Sensitivity and Cost-benefit Analysis of Emission-constrained Technological Growth Under Uncertainty in Natural Emission, Interim Report IIASA IR-05-051.
• G.P. Peters, J.C. Minx, C.L. Weber and O. Edenhofer, Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/04/19/1006388108.full.pdf
• C. Allen and S Clouth, A guidebook to the green Economy, http://www.uncsd2012.org/content/documents/528Green%20Economy%20Guidebook_100912_FINAL.pdf
• http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm

Background and motivation

The proposed project(s) are in the field of energy and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the sector. This contributes to the field of environmental sustainability and renewable energy. The aim is to identify more sustainable energy systems and usage methods in South Africa. Energy is the life line of economic development and there is need to use it in a way that is sustainable, efficient and environmentally friendly if the quality of life and well-being of the planet earth, plants and animals is to be assured. Sprawling and fast growing urban areas, renewable energy resources and technologies and all energy-consuming human endeavors in South Africa are candidates for improved environmental performance. This can be during any phase of the life cycle of the activities and systems or can also be tackled from a life cycle perspective. The work done in these areas can contribute discourse and decision-making in energy and sustainability.

Research theme

The focus of the research shall be the setting up of an energy model for South Africa, taking into account the point mentioned in in the above chapter ‘Background and Motivations’. The sustainable issue is the main focus on the research. To analyze sustainable development in energy supply, the set-up of an integrated energy model is a cornerstone. This can only be accomplished if a number of young scientists, working in different fields, focus on at the same goal. One group could work on the changes in land use. Focusing on future land needs for agriculture, farming, foresting, and city development this is an essential basis for designing a sustainable future for the country. This work could be based on IIASA’s biomass model GLOBIOM. A second group could focus on future energy technologies development in South Africa. Be it solar technologies, wind farms, or conventional energy generating systems, all will be part of the future energy supply system in South Arica. The important task is to analyze the social impacts as well as the environmental impacts of future energy supply options over their complete life cycle. A third group of young scientists should take careful look into the development of energy demand. Both sides, consciousness utilization of energy and efficiency improvements of end-use technologies, should play an important role in this analysis. The IIASA model GAINS could be an important basis for this focus. This model also looks at emissions and emission standards, thus being very important for sustainable development. The integration of the above themes into an overall South African energy model should be an important step in this activity. This activity must focus on integration and also take into consideration the differences between urban and rural development. A number of previous developments at IIASA could well assist to reach this goal in the short time available. The IIASA model MESSAGE could be a basis for this development. One additional task could be the integration of this model into the global energy model.

Relevant skills

A successful candidate shall have keen interest in applied system analysis and proven skills in at least one of the following areas: operations research (in particular methods and tools for mathematical modeling, integrated model analysis, data analysis), energy systems, energy efficiency, and land-use matters.

Recommended reading

• GEA, 2012: Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
• Achieving a Sustainable Global Energy System: Identifying Possibilities Using Long-Term Energy Scenarios, L. Schrattenholzer, A. Miketa, K. Riahi, R.A. Roehrl (eds), Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK [2004]
• Australian Wine Industry: (n.d) Eco Efficiency Series- Fact Sheet 6. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). http://www.wfa.org.au/PDF/Fact%20Sheet%20Life%20Cycle.pdf. Accessed 2 February 2009
• ASTM International Standards Worldwide. (1991). ASTM E1991 - 05 Standard Guides for Environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Building Materials/Products. http://www.astm.org/Standards/E1991.htm. Accessed 23 November 2009.
• Blottnitz. H, Theka, E. and Botha, T. (n.d) Bio-Ethanol as an Octane enhancing fuel additive in Southern Africa: An Examination of its “Environmental Friendliness” From a Life Cycle Perspective. Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Cape Town.
• Blottnitz, v. H. and Curran, M.A. (2007). A review of assessments conducted on bio ethanol systems from an energy balance, CO2, and environmental life-cycle perspective. In: Journal of Cleaner Production. Vol 15 (7):607-619.
• Cherubin, Francesco., Bird, N.d., Cowie, A., Jungmeier, G., Schlamadinger, B. & Woess-Gallash, S. (2009). Energy and greenhouse gas based LCA of biofuel and bio systems: Key issues, ranges and recommendations. Journal of resources, conservation and recycling. Vol 53 (8):434- 447
• Department of Minerals and Energy, South Africa. (DMEa)(2004). White Paper on the Renewable Energy Policy of South Africa. Government Gazette. Republic of South Africa. Vol 466. Pretoria . www.info.gov.za/gazette. Accessed on 02 January 2009
• Department of Minerals and Energy, Republic of South Africa. (DMEb) (2004). Assessment of Commercially Exploitable Biomass Resources: Bagasse, Wood & Sawmill Waste and Pulp, in South Africa. Pretoria. Capacity Building in Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Report No. – 2.3.4–29.
• IEA. (1999). Programme for Advanced Energy-Efficient Technologies for the Pulp and Paper Industry. Assessment of Life Cycle –Wide Energy- Related Environmental Impacts in the Pulp and Paper Industry. Final Report.
• Life Cycle Assessment. An Introduction. www.life-cycle.org. Accessed 28 January 2009.
• Moor, B. (2008). Modern Sugar Equipment Assisting Cogeneration, Factory workshop: The Future of Energy in a Cane Sugar Factory. Bosch Projects, South Africa. SASTA Congress 2008, 29-31 July ICC Durban, South Africa.
• Ramjeawon, T. (2004). Life Cycle Assessment of Cane Sugar on the Island of Mauritius. In: The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 9 (5) pp 254-260
• Ramjeawon, T. Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation from Bagasse in Mauritius. In: Journal of Cleaner Production 16 () pp 1727-1734.
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (n.d). Division of Technology, Industry and Economics. Sustainable Consumption and Production Branch. Life cycle Initiative. http://www.unep.fr/scp/lcinitiative/
• Wang. M., May Wu, Huo H., and Liu J. (2008). Life Cycle Energy Analysis and Greenhouse Gas Emission Implications of Brazilian Sugar Cane Production. In: International Sugar Journal. Vol 110 (1317).
• Blewbury. (2010). Hydrogen and fuel cells. Available from: www.blewbury.co.uk/energy/hydrogen.htm.
• Campbell, K. (2009). SA seeks to extract hydrogen’s clean-power potential. Available from: http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/sa-seeks-to-extract-hydrogens-clean-powerpotential-2009-05-15
• Mudd, G. M. & Glaister, B. J. (2010). The environmental costs of platinum–PGM mining and sustainability: Is the glass half-full or half-empty? Minerals Engineering, 23(5): 438–450
• Durbin TD, Collins JR, Nor beck JM, Smith MR. Effects of biodiesel, biodiesel blends, and a synthetic diesel on emissions from light heavy-duty diesel vehicles. Environmental Science and Technology 2000; 34(3):349–355. DOI:10.1021/es990543c
• Jaramillo, P.; Griffin, W. M.; Matthews, H. S. Comparative life cycle air emissions of coal, domestic natural gas, LNG, and SNG for electricity generation. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2007, 41 (17), 6290–6296
• Marano, J. J.; Ciferno, J. P. Life-Cycle Greenhouse-Gas Emissions Inventory for Fischer-Tropsch Fuels; National Energy Technology Laboratory: Pittsburgh, PA, 2001

Background and motivation

Access to energy for domestic and productive (income generation) use is essential for human society in all except the most basic subsistence communities. Across southern Africa there is a wide spectrum of energy access from full grid connection to dependence on a rapidly depleting stock of natural biomass (fuelwood) and agricultural residues. Two decades of global focus on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, and on the Millennium Development Goals have neglected aspects of energy access for the large fraction of the population living with energy poverty (lack of security of energy supply, access to unsafe or polluting and consequently unhealthy energy carriers and devices). Recent initiatives, such as the UN Year of Energy Access 2012 and the Global Alliance of Clean Cookstoves (GACC) have begun to address these challenges. Yet progress towards the adoption of modern energy carriers and technologies has been remarkably slow, and the empirical understanding of the drivers of this transition, including social and technological opportunities and constraints, very limited.

Research theme

The central theme of the proposed research is the interface in the last ten meters, taking energy access in the home, dealing with the social, economic, technical and community dynamics at the local scale to reconcile tensions between the aims of global initiatives and government sponsored programmes, and the needs, aspirations and practices of communities with respect to their energy choices. It is in the delivery to the intended beneficiaries at this final stage where many well-intentioned programmes ultimately fail. Understanding factors that contribute both to adoption and sustained use of modern energy carriers and technologies (or alternatively clean technologies for traditional fuels), and policies and institutions that facilitate or hinder such transitions will be the primary objective of this research.

Relevant skills

A socio-economic, technical or science background; quantitative and modeling skills, and an ability to handle data; keen interest in issues relating to energy poverty and energy access in developing regions.

Recommended reading

• Kimemia, D. K., & Annegarn, H. J. (2012). Productive Uses of Basic Energy and Fuel Transitions in Urban South Africa. Energy and Environment Research, 2(2). doi:10.5539/eer.v2n2p103
• Makonese, T., Kimemia, D. K., & Annegarn, H. J. (2012). Assessment of free basic electricity and use of pre-paid meters in South Africa. In Domestic Use of Energy Conference (DUE), 2012 Proceedings of the 20th (pp. 165–172). Retrieved from http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=6198227
• McCollum, D. L., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2012). Beyond Rio: Sustainable energy scenarios for the 21st century. In Natural Resources Forum (Vol. 36, pp. 215–230). Retrieved from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1477-8947.2012.01459.x/full
• Pachauri, S., van Ruijven, B. J., Nagai, Y., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Brew-Hammond, A., & Nakicenovic, N. (2013). Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024015. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024015

Background and motivation

Almost two-thirds of people in sub-Saharan Africa still rely on wood and charcoal from live wood as their primary energy source, in some case in spite of access to electricity. The widespread removal of wood from communal rangelands, for subsistence and commercial purposes, has far-reaching implications for the ability of these communal lands to keep delivering vital ecosystem goods and services. Such changing land use practices, and the associated land cover change, affect future land use options. For example, a rural savanna that is overgrazed, and becomes bush-encroached, limits the extent to which grazing and agriculture land uses can be practiced in future. To understand the range of possible land uses for fuel, fibre and food, and the different development scenarios, it is necessary to understand the factors that affect the ability of tropical and subtropical African environments to deliver these goods and services, and what the resulting patterns of provisioning are.

Research theme

The central research theme is to quantify the amount of fuel, fibre and/or food that can be delivered by a particular natural environment, and to explore the options and consequences when switching between these different land use options. A project can focus on any aspect of this broad theme, but preferably an aspect that is quantifiable with remote sensing methods. Woody canopy cover and associated woody biomass is therefore a good candidate, but by no means the only one. For woody biomass, the following topics can be identified:

• What is the current aboveground woody biomass?
• How has this woody biomass changed, in space and time?
• What are the likely reasons for the observed changes?
• What sustainable future land use scenarios exist for fibre, fuel and food?
• How are these future scenarios affected by observed patterns of change in woody cover?
  
• How well does the GLOBIOM model for competing land uses lend itself to downscaling to country level to explore different land use scenarios?

The project will be primarily desktop based, and rely on existing data from a variety of sources. The study area is flexible, but a focus on tropical and/or subtropical African would be ideal. The aim is to generate enough novelty for publication in a relevant journal.

Relevant skills

Students should be comfortable with working in a GIS environment, and prior experience of using, analyzing and interpreting remotely sensed data will be an advantage. Students should have sufficient command of the English language to write a scientific paper. The project has the potential to become quite quantitative, and should it develop in that direction, students should have the necessary statistical background to analyze and explore data.

Recommended reading

• Smith P, Gregory PJ, van Vuuren DP, Obersteiner M, Havlik P, Rounsevell M, Woods J, Stehfest E, Bellarby J (2010) Competition for land. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554):2941-2957 http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/2941.full.pdf
• Baccini, A., S. J. Goetz, et al. (2012). "Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps." Nature Climate Change 2(3): 182-185 doi:10.1038/nclimate135
• Coetzer, K.L., Witkowski, E.T.F., Erasmus, B.F.N. & Reyers, B. (2013) The race for space: tracking landcover transformation in a socio-ecological landscape, South Africa. Environmental Management. Doi 10.1007/s00267-013-0094-9 (early view)
• Matsika, R., Erasmus, B.F.N. & Twine, W. (2013) A tale of two villages: Assessing the dynamics of fuelwood supply in communal landscapes within the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere, South Africa. Environmental Conservation. 40(1):71-83.
• Wessels KJ, Colgan MS, Erasmus BFN, Asner GP, Twine WC, Mathieu R, Van Aardt JAN, Fisher JT & Smit IPJ (2013) Unsustainable fuelwood extraction from South African savannas. Environmental Research Letters 8(1): art. no 014007.
• Matsika, R., Erasmus, B.F.N & Twine, W. (2013) Double jeopardy: the dichotomy of fuelwood use in rural South Africa. Energy Policy. 52:716-725.Fisher, J.T., Witkowski, E.T.F., Erasmus, B.F.N., Van Aardt, J.A.N., Asner, G., Wessels, K., Mathieu, R. (2012) Human-modified landscapes: patterns of fine-scale woody vegetation structure in communal savanna rangelands. Environmental Conservation. 39(1): 72–82.
• Wessels KJ, Mathieu R, Erasmus BFN, Asner GP, Smit IPJ, van Aardt JAN, Main R, Fisher J, Marais W, Kennedy-Bowdoin T, Knapp DE, Emerson R & Jacobson J. (2011) Impact of contrasting land use on woody vegetation structure in the Lowveld savannas of South Africa. Forest Ecology and Management, 261(1):19-29.

Background and motivation

Ecosystem resilience is a popular research agenda due to the degradation of many ecosystems brought about by human interferences, such as over-use, exploitation or pollution, as well as due to their intriguing complexity which is as yet poorly understood. Although funders, politicians, managers and researchers are all interested in keeping ecosystems as life support systems more or less intact, there is as yet no consensus as to what constitutes a resilient ecosystem. This is mostly because we have little understanding of thresholds in empirical system, while we are beginning to understand some of the thresholds in theoretical systems. The challenge of establishing a “range of resilience” for each ecosystem is supported by little knowledge of variability of ecosystem growth or functioning, and adequate indices to describe such variability.

Research theme

Resilient ecosystems in general maintain an adequate functioning, which is determined by interactions between species, and between species and their abiotic environment. In order to describe such interactions and resulting macroscopic patterns, network analysis has been used as one of the tools. Although several ecosystem properties pertaining to resilience have been put forward by the research community, it is not yet clear which of these, or which combination thereof, describes ecosystem resilience adequately. Most of these describe patterns of links within a system such as network connectivity, flow diversity, estimate constraints on energy moving through the systems, node centrality and many others. However, for none of these have theoretical ranges or thresholds be explored, only few of them have ever been explored in conjunction, however several have already been explored to compare ecosystem structure and function but with little reference to resilience.

Therefore, there are both theoretical and applied aspects to this project to explore existing indicators for resilience, and there is furthermore plenty of scope to explore new resilience indicators, using network analysis, in a setting of empirical, existing networks.

The outcome of this project is envisaged to be a spectrum of several network analysis measures that adequately describe ecosystem resilience.

Relevant skills

Ecological modeling, network analysis, ecology, MATLAB (or similar programming platform), a keen interest in network analysis and network related research questions.

Recommended reading
Key readings are indicated with an *.

• *Christensen V & Walters C.J (2004). Ecopath with Ecosim: Methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling 172: 109–139 [weblink]
• *Fath B.D, Scharler U, Ulanowicz R.E & Hannon B (2007). Ecological Network Analysis: Network Construction. Ecological Modelling 208, 49–55 [weblink]
• Ives A.R & Carpenter S.R (2007). Stability and diversity of ecosystems. Science 317: 58–62 [weblink]
• Jansen V.A.A & Kokkoris G.D (2003). Complexity and stability revisited. Ecology Letters 6: 498–502 [weblink]
• *Kazanci C (2007). EcoNet: A new software for ecological modeling, simulation and network analysis. Ecological Modelling, 208(1), 3–8 [weblink]
• Kharrazi, A., Rovenskaya, E., Fath, B.D., Yarime, M. & Kraines, S. (2013). Quantifying the sustainability of economic resource networks: An ecological information-based approach. Ecological Economics, 90, 177-186.
• *Krause A.E, Frank K.A, Mason D.M, Ulanowicz R.E & Taylor W.W (2003). Compartments revealed in food–web structure. Nature, 426, 282–285 [weblink]
• Lehman C.L & Tilman D (2000). Biodiversity, stability, and productivity in competitive communities. American Naturalist 156: 534–552 [weblink]
• MacArthur R (1955). Fluctuations of animal populations and a measure of community stability. Ecology 36: 533–536 [weblink]
• May R.M (1972). Will a large complex system be stable? Nature 238: 413–414 [weblink]
• *Patten B.C. (1985) Energy cycling in the ecosystem. Ecological Modelling, 28, 1–71 [weblink]
• Pimm S.L (1984). The complexity and stability of ecosystems. Nature 307: 321–326 [weblink]
• Solow A.R & Beet A.R (1998) On lumping species in food webs. Ecology, 79, 2013–2018 [weblink]
• Tilly L.J (1968). The Structure and Dynamics of Cone Spring. Ecological Monographs, 38, 169–197 [weblink]
• Williams R.J. & Martinez N.D (2000). Simple rules yield complex food webs. Nature 404, 180–183, 2000 [weblink]

Background and motivation

Forty years ago, Robert May published his iconic book, Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems. In this book, May challenged a popular belief of ecologists that species-rich ecosystems are more stable than species-poor ones. Using a mathematical model of differential equations, May derived the opposite conclusion: complexity leads to instability. May’s principle of ‘simple means stable’ has guided the design of durable and robust complex systems by reducing the number of compartments. Learning from ecological systems, here we envisage a paradigm shift departing from May’s principle by incorporating adaptive compartments. For this purpose, we aim to expand the methodology of adaptive dynamics theory, a mathematical toolbox recently developed for examining phenotypic evolution in realistic ecological settings. The new perspective we propose emphasizes that complex adaptive systems assemble their members and often cause these to diverge into functional clusters.

Research theme

An important assumption in the early theories is that species in a community are not allowed to have ecological novelty or evolutionary novelty. Ecological novelty refers to the ability of species to increase their fitness by deciding, adaptively and at ecological time scales, how strongly they interact with extant other species. Evolutionary novelty refers to the ability of species to increase their fitness by adapting their heritable traits via natural selection. Here we propose to build a mathematical model that incorporates both ecological and evolutionary novelties in a large ecosystem with a realistic number of species. Using adaptive dynamics theory, we plan to first construct an ecosystem following May’s approach; that is, a Lotka-Volterra model with each species described by a differential equation. The mutualistic and antagonistic relationships among these species will be described by Holling-type-II functional responses. We will allow species to choose their interaction partners and adapt their interactions through the mutation and selection of the underlying traits. In this way, we will design the first model that allows changes both in the interaction matrix and in the benefit matrix. The relationship between diversity and complexity will be assessed by this innovative adaptive model.

In addition to the research theme summarized above, we are open to supervising projects in all other areas of theoretical ecology and the analysis of complex adaptive systems. This includes studies of the dynamics and evolution of cooperation; adaptive response of metapopulations, ecosystems, and biodiversity patterns to environmental changes; evolution of virulence and resistance in diseases; adaptive management of landscapes, vegetation structures, and fisheries; as well as analyses of systemic risks. Projects in all of these areas may have an analytical component, and will typically involve a simulation-based numerical approach.

Relevant skills

Applicants should have mastered at least one programming language (such as Matlab, Mathematica, R, C, C++, Basic, Delphi, or Pascal) and should ideally be familiar with the stability analysis of differential equations, methods of adaptive dynamics theory, and standard models in population ecology, community ecology, and evolutionary ecology.

Recommended reading

• Allesina, S. & Tang, S. (2012). Stability criteria for complex ecosystems. Nature 483: 205–208. Available online at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v483/n7388/full/nature10832.html
• Brännström, Å., Loeuille, N., Loreau, M. & Dieckmann, U. (2011). Emergence and maintenance of biodiversity in an evolutionary food-web model. Theoretical Ecology 4: 467–478. Available online at https://previous.iiasa.ac.at/~dieckman/reprints/BrannstromEtal2011a.pdf
• Brännström, Å., Johansson, J., Loeuille, N., Kristensen, N., Troost, T., HilleRisLambers, R. & Dieckmann, U. (2012). Modeling the ecology and evolution of communities: A review of past achievements, current efforts, and future promises. Evolutionary Ecology Research 14: 601–625. Available online at https://previous.iiasa.ac.at/~dieckman/reprints/BrannstromEtal2012.pdf
• Dieckmann, U., Doebeli, M., Metz, J.A.J. & Tautz, D. (2012). Adaptive Speciation. Cambridge University Press. Excerpts available online at https://previous.iiasa.ac.at/~dieckman/reprints/BookExcerpts-DieckmannEtal2004.pdf
• May, R.M. (2001). Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems. Princeton University Press. Excerpts available online at http://books.google.at/books?id=BDA5-ipCLt4C
• Pelletier, J.D. (2000). Are large complex ecosystems more unstable? A theoretical reassessment with predator switching. Mathematical Biosciences, 163,91-96.
• Stouffer, D.B. & Bascompte, J. (2011). Compartmentalization increases food-web persistence. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 108: 3648–3652. Available online at http://www.pnas.org/content/108/9/3648.abstract
• Zhang, F., Hui, C. & Terblanche, J.S. (2011). An interaction switch predicts the nested architecture of mutualistic networks. Ecology Letters 14: 797–803. Available online at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01647.x/abstract

Background and motivation

Networks are abundant in ecological systems. Modeling the time-dependent phenomena on networks usually is done by compartmental ordinary differential models. The drawback is that differential equations only can describe local interactions without taking account the processes occurring along edges. However, the evolution of most real systems is driven by interactions which extend in space, in time, and also across various levels of organizations of matter. The main objective of research is analyzing partial differential equations on networks coupled through various interactions at the nodes. Such models may stretch across various levels of organization of matter, from the micro to the macro scale and these scales are present in them, forming so-called multiple scale models. The complexity of such models makes a robust analysis of them difficult. Hence it is important to be able aggregate the variables of a multiple scales (micro) models to build simpler (macro) models, which, nevertheless, provide similar dynamics. At the same time, since there is interdependence of various levels of description, there should be a `shadow' of the levels that were discarded at the aggregated level.

The aim of the project is to analyze models with special attention to their asymptotic behavior, both in time and with respect to the scaling parameters. A successful application of the asymptotic analysis to such systems will provide a robust approximation of their dynamics without compromising the accuracy of the description. Such an analysis requires a deep understanding of both the original (micro) and the target (macro) systems which can be done at an abstract level by employing and developing new mathematical tools creating thus an extensive network of new links between pure and applied mathematics and life sciences.

Research theme

The project described below outlines a general field of research and is open ended. It contains several smaller but nevertheless challenging projects and the potential students are free to choose some particular topics out of this proposal.

The research will be focused on identification, analysis and simulation of nonlocal models of:

• fragmentation and coagulation describing processes such as animal grouping and splitting, evolution of phytoplankton aggregates, blood agglutination,
• age structured epidemiological models with nonlocality due to e.g. intercohort infections as well as birth processes giving rise to nonlocal boundary conditions,
• invasions of species,transport problems on networks with node interactions given by processes in the above list,
• optimal exploitation of renewable resources in stationary or periodic mode,
• as well as considering multiscale problems coupling the some of the above models and their asymptotic analysis.

Our main objective is theoretical understanding of the properties of such models. In particular, we are interested in:

• well-posedness of the problems,
• existence of steady state solutions and analysis, their stability and the long term behaviour of solutions,
• aggregation of variables and rigorous construction of macro-models.

Relevant skills

The projects are aimed at students interested in mathematical biology, mathematical ecology and mathematical modeling. The skills needed are:

• Good understanding of ordinary and partial differential equation models in life sciences
• Working knowledge of dynamical systems, ordinary and partial differential equations
• At least basic functional analytic skills
• Some numerical skills to illustrate theoretical findings.

Recommended reading

• J. Banasiak and W. Lamb, Analytic fragmentation semigroups and continuous coagulationfragmentation equations with unbounded rates. J Math Anal Appl 391, (2012), 312-322.
• A. Okubo and S.A. Levin, Diffusion and Ecological Problems: Modern Perspectives, Springer, 2001.
• Z. Szymaoska, C. M. Rodrigo, M. Lachowicz and M. A. J. Chaplain. The mathematical modelling of cancer invasion of tissue. The role and effect of nonlocal interactions, Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, 19(2) 257– 281, (2009).
• B. Dorn, M. Kramar Fijavž, R. Nagel, A. Radl, The semigroup approach to transport processes in networks. Phys. D 239 (2010), no. 15, 1416–1421.
• F. M. Atay, Synchronization and amplitude death in coupled limit cycle oscillators with time delays. Topics in time delay systems, 383–389, Lecture Notes in Control and Inform. Sci., 388, Springer, Berlin, 2009.
• N. Bellomo, C. Bianca and M. Delitala, Complexity analysis and mathematical Tools towards the modeling of living systems, Phys. Life Rev. 6, (2009) 144-175.
• N. Bellomo, H. Beresticky, F. Brezzi and J. P. Nadal, Mathematics and complexity in life and human sciences, Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. 20, (2010) 1391-1397.
• J. Banasiak, A. Goswami, S. Shindin, Aggregation in age and space structured population models: an asymptotic analysis approach. J. Evol. Equ. 11 (2011), 121–154.
• P. Auger, R. Bravo de la Parra, J.-C. Poggiale, E. Sánchez, T. Nguyen-Huu, Aggregation of Variables and Application to Population Dynamics, in: P. Magal and S.Ruan, (eds): Structured Population Models in Biology and Epidemiology. LMN 1936, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 209--263 (2008)
• A. Bobrowski, Convergence of one-parameter operator semigroups. In models of mathematical biology and elsewhere, Cambridge University Press, to appear. J. Banasiak, P. Namayanja, Asymptotic Behaviour of Flows on Reducible Networks, submitted
• D. Mugnolo, Semigroup methods for evolution equations on networks, http://www.uniulm.de/en/mawi/analysis/members/jun-prof-pd-dr-delio-mugnolo/cv-publication-list.html
• J. Banasiak, L. Arlotti, Perturbations of Positive Semigroups with Applications, Springer, 2006.

Background and motivation

Soil microbes inhabiting the rhizosphere play a crucial role in determining plant fitness, productivity, and health. Their role has been highlighted in studies of mutualistic and antagonistic interactions, both in natural ecosystems affecting the diversity and stability of communities, and also in agroecosystems directly affecting crop yields. Besides the biological aspects often studied, also various biochemical mechanisms influence rhizosphere diversity, which in turn stabilizes interactions that positively or negatively affect plant species and community diversity, stability, or resilience. Allelopathy, the inhibition of others by chemicals, is one potential mechanism responsible for determining agricultural productivity and plant community structure. Modeling allelopathy in a multi-species setting in spatially explicit models will contribute to a broader understanding of the diversity, stability, and productivity of above- and below-ground communities.

Research theme

This project will focus on modeling plant community dynamics in a multi-species setting. At the same time, it will interface this objective with the consideration of multi-player cooperation models, thus creating a link between modeling plant community dynamics and cooperation research. Cooperation research focuses on the evolution and stability of different strategy types involved in potentially cooperative interactions - for example, investing more or less into producing chemical products that may inhibit other members of a community. Interaction between these different strategies will then affect the diversity, stability, or productivity of communities. Among the numerous theoretical approaches, agent-based modeling is an appropriate tool for the theoretical study of plant community dynamics with such complex interactions. Agent-based models can also be used for modeling spatially explicit populations, in which individuals have limited movement and localized interactions, which fits the study of plant communities. The scope of this project is to develop and/or analyze such a model for understanding plant community dynamics in a multi-species setting considering interactions through chemical products. In addition to these theoretical aspects, the project will also consider applied aspects of plant community dynamics, by comparing model results with data, and by making predictions about the effect of human actions, such as fertilization strategies or crop-mixing strategies, on plant community diversity, stability, and productivity.

Relevant skills

Ecological modeling, microbial ecology, skills in mathematics, spatially explicit modeling, agent-based modeling, Matlab/ C/ Delphi (or similar programming platform); interest in interactions between species and their abiotic environment.

Recommended reading

• Blanco, J.A. (2007). The representation of allelopathy in ecosystem-level forest models. Ecological Modelling 209: 65-77. Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380007003225
• Boza, G., Kun, Á., Scheuring, I. & Dieckmann, U. (2012). Strategy diversity stabilizes mutualism through investment cycles, phase diffusion, and spatial bubbles. PLoS Computational Biology, 8: e1002660. Available online at http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1002660
• Inderjit, Wardle, D.A., Karban, R. & Callaway R.M. (2011). The ecosystem and evolutionary contexts of allelopathy. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 26: 655-662. Available online at http://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/abstract/S0169-5347(11)00239-4
• Lankau, R.A. (2012). Coevolution between invasive and native plants driven by chemical competition and soil biota. Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences of the USA 109: 11240-11245. Available online at http://www.pnas.org/content/109/28/11240.short
• McNickle, G.G. & Dybzinski, R. (2013). Game theory and plant ecology. Ecology Letters 16: 545-555. Available online at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12071/abstract

Background and motivation

Water resources are central to development and poverty alleviation. Yet decision makers face many challenges to ensuring their sustainable and equitable use. A new collaborative IIASA initiative brings state-of-the-art science and decision makers together to develop realistic future scenarios that decision makers can use to identify and prioritize robust options to meet these challenges. Although the main aim of the project is to provide widely accessible data sets that are consolidated, integrated and applicable across different scales, it is hoped that the initiative, in particular, could provide datasets and scenario information at the country-level, which could be regarded as the most appropriate level for policy making. The project needs to mobilize individual countries or regions with shared needs and priorities to address them jointly. Important social science dimensions were lacking in previous water scenarios - this time, people's behavior needs to be taken into account, with a focus on specific questions and relevant scales (Bill Cosgrove, project director; project launch meeting 2013).

Research theme

World Water Scenarios Initiative, referred to here as WFaS is a multi-layered, cross-sector, stakeholder informed, scenario-based assessment of the state of water resources and water demand using state-of-the-art socio-economic and hydrological models. It will coordinate its work with other on-going scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that are being developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5).

The WFaS Initiative will deliver water scenarios which combine qualitative and quantitative indictors across sectors and disciplines. Their policy relevance will be assured by including stakeholders in the scenario-building process and the assessment of management options. The scenarios will provide an internally-consistent picture of how water resources and water uses in different parts of the world may develop during the 21st century, while describing possible impacts and comparisons of various management strategies and identifying synergies and trade-offs of the strategies developed by various actors.

Relevant skills

Hydrological modeling, environmental analysis, social dynamics and general interest in systems analysis

Recommended reading

• Catherine E. Cosgrove and William J. Cosgrove 2012. The Dynamics of Global Water Futures Driving Forces 2011-2050. Report on the findings of Phase One of the UNESCO-WWAP Water Scenarios Project to 2050. UNESCO, Paris
• G. Fischer, E. Hizsnyik, S. Prieler & D. Wiberg Scarcity and abundance of land resources: competing uses and the shrinking land resource base. SOLAW Background Thematic Report - TR02. FAO, Rome
• The White House. 2011. NATIONAL ACTION PLAN. Priorities for Managing Freshwater Resources in a Changing Climate.
• Department of Water Affairs. Proposed National Water Resources Strategy 2 (NWRS2): Summary.
• https://previous.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/Global-Water-Futures-and-Solutions--World-Water-Scen.en.html

Background and motivation

An internet search for the word governance yields 45 300 00 hits of which 17 000 00 are for 'good governance', a theme tightly connected to words such as democracy, accountability and transparency. In several recent high profile water meetings and in several key publications, the water community has increasingly emphasized that the global water crisis is centrally a crisis of governance. Consider the first key message from the final report of the Marseille World Water Forum from 2012.

The 'water crisis' the world community faces today is largely a governance crisis. Securing water for all, especially for vulnerable populations, is often not only a question of hydrology (water quantity, quality, supply, demand) and financing, but equally a matter of good governance. Managing water scarcity and water-related risks (floods, natural disasters, etc) requires resilience institutions, collaborative efforts and sound capacity at all levels (WWF 2012:5 in Goldin, Sneddon and Harris 2013).

Growing engagement with ideas of governance - and good governance -are linked with critical investigation into of the broader hegemonic discourses from which they draw such as marketization, privatization or/and participation. In recent years, scholars and practioners have increasingly directed attention towards a wide range of issues in an effort to understand the complex ways that human societies modify, exploit, adapt and consume water resources. These processes come together under the rubric of water governance. We look at institutional contexts at multiple scales and consider how these contexts can be upscaled and what ingredients contribute to the uptake of good governance across multiple contexts. We frame our questions within a human development that is multi-dimensional because we believe that many factors matter at the same time.

Research theme

How can governance strategies be categorized? How can successful governance strategies be spread to other places and what mechanisms do we need to set in motion for uptake and upscaling of these successful strategies. What is the impact of different water governance strategies on human wellbeing and livelihoods in the southern Africa region? What indicators would we establish for quantitative and qualitative work to capture the relationship between human well-being and water security?

How do we best define human well-being and how does our framing of human well-being impact on water governance strategies? We consider governance within the context of gender, climate variability and resilience and our research looks at existing case study material to isolate those components of governance systems that build resilience and promote human well-being.

Contemporary discourses on governance imply participation in water management. Participation becomes conflated with good governance practice. Participatory water governance has become a fashionable concept but as Goldin (2013) claims there is imprecision about what participation means.

Our main thrust is to get closer to the meaning of good governance through interrogating attributes of good governance, including 'intangible goods' such as emotions that make a difference to how individuals engage or do not engage with water concerns.

Relevant skills

Development studies background, integrated water resources management background learning, some gender studies background would be helpful. Some basic statistical knowledge would also be helpful as we will work with indicators on human well-being.

Recommended reading

• Goldin, J. (2013). From vagueness to precision: raising the volume on social issues for the water sector. Water Policy, 15(2), 309. doi:10.2166/wp.2012.211
• Goldin, J. A. (2010). Water Policy in South Africa: Trust and Knowledge as Obstacles to Reform. Review of Radical Political Economics, 42(2), 195-212. doi:10.1177/0486613410368496
• Harris, L. M. (2005). Negotiating Inequalities: Democracy, Gender, and Politics of Difference in Water User Groups of Southeastern Turkey. In F. Adaman & M. Arsel (Eds.), Environmentalism-in-Turkey (pp. 185-200). VA, USA: Ashgate: Aldershot, UK and Burlington.
• Ostrom, E. (2009). A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems. Science, 325(5939), 419-422. doi:10.1126/science.1172133
• Wutich, A. (2009). Water Scarcity and the Sustainability of a Common Pool Resource Institution in the Urban Andes. Human Ecology, 37(2), 179-192. doi:10.1007/s10745-009-9227-4

Background and motivation

This project is related to socio economic development, poverty alleviation and improvement of health related aspects to address the need of innovative integration of Indigenous Knowledge (IK) into policy to enhance rural development in the SADC region. Micronutrient deficiencies, poor feeding practices, stunting of growth, the increase in HIV, TB, diarrhoea, malaria and parasite infections are just a few health concepts related to water and sanitation management that cripple maternal and child health in rural economies. It runs closely parallel to the DST Grand Challenges such as Human capital development and knowledge generation and the Farmer to Pharma agenda. The project narrates to IIASA research priorities in that it will look at the impact on the ecosystem when plants are harvested, managed and used to treat diseases. Policies to protect against exploitation of the biodiversity of the ecosystem and protection of the IK will be proposed.

Research theme

The innovative integration of indigenous knowledge into policy to ensure sustainability and poverty alleviation in rural areas related to poor water supply and ineffective waste management related to sanitation such as the implementation of dry pit latrines as well as the use of IK to prevent and treat maternal and child diseases has as far as known not been explored in the Eastern Cape rural areas.

There is thus a need to explore whether traditional plants can protect against maternal and child diseases related to poor water resources and unhygienic sanitation. Furthermore is it important to protect the biodiversity of the ecosystem whilst harvesting the plants.

Cochrane systematic reviews (CSR) are globally acknowledged as the highest standard of evidence based health care. Cochrane systematic reviews refer to the systematic review, meta-analysis and synthesis of primary research related to health care and health policies. Reviews addresses clearly formulated questions to investigate the effects of interventions for prevention or treatment or policies to establish if there are irrefutable evidence about the specific treatment.

The outcome of the project is to contribute to human capacity development by firstly assisting students to complete a Cochrane systematic review and in the long term the successful graduation of PhD students and to knowledge generation via publications including the publication of the systematic review. The long-term research will also contribute to the socio economic development, poverty alleviation and improvement of health related aspects by assisting communities to implement innovative integration of Indigenous Knowledge (IK) into policy to enhance rural economy.

Relevant skills

The applicants should have a keen interest in public health related issues to uplift rural communities as well as an interest to protect indigenous knowledge. Specific research skills i.e. systematic reviews will be taught.

Recommended reading

• Costanza, R. & Mageau, M., 1999. What is a healthy ecosystem?. Aquatic Ecology, Volume 33, pp. 105-115.
• Gruber, C. W. & O'Brien, M., 2010. Uterotonic plants and their Bioactive Constituents. Planta Med, 77(3), pp. 207-220.
• Linde, K. et al., 2009. Echinacea for preventing and treating the common cold. Oxford: John Wiley & Sons.
• Tandon, V., Yadav, A. K., Roy, B. & Das, B., 2011. Phytochemicals as cure of worm infections in traditional medicine systems. Emerging Trends in Zoology, pp. 351-378.
• Wilcox, M. L., n.d. Traditional medicinal plants for the treatment and prevention of human parasitic diseases. Ethnopharmacology

Background and motivation

This project is designed to make use of the South Africa Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health 2007/8 (Wave 1). Dr. Nancy Phaswana-Mafuya (National Science Research Council) was the Principal Investigator this study. A link to this study can be found at

http://www.hsrc.ac.za/en/research-outputs?search=ageing&x=61&y=16&department=all&year=all&type=all&page-num=4

Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov have been studying ageing and have published a number of papers on new approaches to measuring ageing.^1-5

Research theme

The three of us would like to collaborate on a project in which we apply those new approaches to South African data. Students will be analyzing the South African data on the basis of those new approaches. A detailed knowledge of those new approaches is not necessary at this point, but an interest in learning them is.

Relevant skills

Students who apply should have experience working with survey data on the computer. A working knowledge of some statistical software package, such as STATA, SAS, R or SPSS is required. Students should also be familiar with the analysis of data using EXCEL.

Recommended reading

• Lutz W, Sanderson W, Scherbov S. The coming acceleration of global population ageing. Nature 2008; 451(7179): 716-9.
• Sanderson WC, Scherbov S. Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age. Nature 2005; 435(7043): 811-3.
• Sanderson W, Scherbov S. Rethinking Age and Aging. Population Bulletin 2008; 63(4): 3-16.
• Sanderson WC, Scherbov S. Remeasuring Aging. Science 2010; 329(5997): 1287-8.
• Sanderson WC, Scherbov S. A new perspective on population aging. Demogr Res 2007; 16: 27-57.

Background and motivation

Education is vital in the emerging knowledge economy which as commodity is rapidly accredited, replacing raw materials and labor as the most critical input for determining a country's ability to compete in the world economy (Yabuuchi & Chaudhuri, 2009; Goujon, Lutz & Wazir, 2011). Education is also the most important determinant of human capital formation (Conrad, 2011), in conjunction with health and training. Efanga and Oleforo (2012) refer to a symbiotic nexus between human capital and national development with specific reference to an increase in knowledge workers as well as innovation and technology to address societal needs. Sustainable economic development is hampered when human capital to facilitate progressive growth is not available. Investment in human capital amongst other investments, increases the total factor productivity of a country inducing growth and ultimately reducing poverty (Le Van, Nguyen, Nguyen & Luong, 2010). With this in mind the following project is proposed.

Research theme

Internationally there has been an increased awareness of social justice and human rights with specific reference to the right to education sufficient to support a family ascribed to the paradoxical positive relationship between increased global economic engagement and inequality (St. John, 2013).

Education and skills is vital for inclusive sustainable development and an integral part of the international development agenda (UNESCO, 2012).

The South African government has implemented various educational reforms to facilitate sustainable economic development such as the Governmental Action Plan of 2014 to ensure that children remain effectively enrolled in school up to the end of compulsory schooling, and improve access to further education and training beyond Grade 9. In addition there has been an increase in the net enrolment of learners in primary school (Maile, 2008). Taken into consideration the large time momentum of educational reform as well as in light of the exclusion of a large segment of the population from the labour market the question arises whether these educational reforms conforms to social justice.

The broad project outline demarcates any topic linking educational reform and social justice as well as limitations to educational development in South Africa or the outcome of educational deficiencies in terms of segmentation.

Relevant skills

The applicant must be able to demonstrate expertise and critical knowledge and be able to conceptualise new research initiatives and create new knowledge or practice. A keen interest in socioeconomic development would be an advantage.

Recommended reading

• Efanga, S.I., & Oleforo, N.A. (2012). Economic impact of tertiary education on manpower resource development in Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research, 4(3), 105-108.
• Goujon, A., Lutz, W., & Wazir, A. (2011). Alternative population and Education Trajectories for Pakistan. IIASA Interim Report.
• Le Van, C., Nguyen, T., Nguyen, M., & Luong, T.B. (2010). New technology, human capital, and growth in a developing country. Mathematical Population Studies, 17, 215-241.
• Maile, S. (2008). Education and poverty reduction strategies: issues of policy coherence. Pretoria: Human Sciences Research Council.
• St. John, E.P. (2013). Social justice and globalization. Reconsidering public finance in college access. Harvard International Review, 35(1), 45-49.
• UNESCO (2012). Education and skills for inclusive and sustainable development beyond 2015. Available at http://www.unesco.org/new/fileadmin/MULTIMEDIA/HQ/post2015/pdf/Think_Piece_Education.pdf. Accessed 21 May 2013.
• Yabuuchi, S., & Chaudhuri, S. (2009). Skill formation, capital adjustment cost and wage inequality. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies, 21(1), 2-13.

Additional suggested reading

• Hanushek, E.A. (2009). School policy: Implications of recent research for human capital investments in South Asia and other developing countries. Education Economics, 17(3), 291-313.
• Quality education for all, overcoming barriers to learning and development: report of the National Commission on Special Needs in Education and Training (NCSNET) and National Committee on Educational Support Services (NCESS), 1997. Pretoria: Department of Education. [Web link: http://www.education.gov.za/index.asp?src=rsea]

Background and motivation

The population-environment-development interface (or PED nexus as it is often referred to) is a highly multi- and inter-disciplinary field and one that transcends the boundaries of conventional disciplines in the social and natural sciences. The field is firmly imbedded in a systems approach to population and environment linkages and challenges. While development improves quality of life and leads to higher standard of living, it can have adverse impacts on the environment and livelihoods.

Not only patterns of consumption and distribution of wealth and natural resources are unequal; environmental impacts are also distributed disproportionately across regions, nations, subnational entities, communities and households. This points to the importance of considering differential vulnerability across population groups when studying about development, environment and climate change.

Research in this field thus usually is of huge significance to policy makers - both in the private and public sector - and has found its way to several legal and policy frameworks in South Africa and elsewhere. This context provides an opportunity for several unique case studies on the relationships between development and environmental change and demographic differential vulnerability.

Research theme

Within the PED nexus context, the supplementary and cross-cutting field of conservation-population-development is strongly aligned with IIASA's interdisciplinary focus on global problem areas such as poverty and equity as well as food and water. Natural resources provide the basis for human survival and development. However, the increasing demand for these resources emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to sustainable management of biological resources. The sustainable use and management of such resources requires an interdisciplinary approach and sound knowledge of each resource, as well as the ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors related to their use.

Conservation policy and practices over the past few decades have indeed strongly emphasized the linkages between rural poverty and environmental degradation and, more specifically, the importance of reconciling the socio-economic needs and expectations of local communities with the objectives of biodiversity conservation and protected-areas management. Accordingly, our main research objectives are to investigate: 1) the relationship between development and environmental change and how populations' livelihoods are affected by this relationship; 2) how the impacts of development and environmental and climate change vary across population subgroups; 3) the role of social networks, policies and institutions on development and managing impacts of environmental and climate change; and 4) the social and environmental prerequisites for sustainability in a specific context of development. Our project hence sets its focus on the intersection of development, human demography and environmental sustainability in order to simultaneously address issues of resource conservation, food security, poverty alleviation as well as gender equity in sub-Saharan African countries.

Relevant skills

Social research methods and statistical analysis, and a firm understanding of and proven ability to integrate two substantially different data sets (i.e. social and environmental/biological) into a single, holistic and coherent synthesis. Additional skills on spatial analysis would also be desirable.

Recommended reading

• Morss, R. E., O. V. Wilhelmi, G. A. Meehl, and L. Dilling. 2011. Improving Societal Outcomes of Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate: An Integrated Perspective. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 36:1-25.
• Smit, B., and J. Wandel. 2006. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16:282-292.
• Lutz, W., E. Striessnig, W., and A. G. Patt. 2013. Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability. Ecology and Society 18
• Duraiappah, A. K., International Institute for Sustainable Development, & United Nations Environment Programme. (2004). Exploring the links human well-being, poverty and ecosystem services. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development.
• Madulu, N. F. (2004). Assessment of linkages between population dynamics and environmental change in Tanzania. African Journal of Environmental Assessment and Management, 9, 88-102.
• Pelser, A., Redelinghuys, N., & Velelo, N. (2013). Protected areas as vehicles in population development: lessons from rural South Africa. Environment, Development and Sustainability. doi:10.1007/s10668-013-9434-4