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Stefan Thurner joined IIASA on Jan 1 2010, and is currently affiliated with the Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program. His research focus is on dynamics and control of complex networked systems, in particular the resilience and systemic risk of financial markets and economic networks. He pioneers the use of large-scale, data-driven agent based models for policy implications. He is actively engaged in several big-data analytic initiatives. He is full professor for Science of Complex Systems at the Medical University of Vienna, where he chairs Section for Science of Complex Systems. Since 2007 he has been an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute, since 2015 he has been the president of the Complexity Science Hub Vienna, and since 2016 a distingiushed visiting professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
Prof. Thurner obtained a PhD in theoretical physics from the Technical University of Vienna (1995), and a PhD in economics from the University of Vienna (2001). Following on from postdoc positions at Humboldt University, Berlin and Boston University, he joined the faculty of the University of Vienna in 1999 and later the Medical University. He holds a habilitation in theoretical physics (2001). Since 1995, Prof. Thurner has published approximately 200 scientific articles covering areas of fundamental physics, mathematics, complex systems, life sciences, economics and social sciences. His work has received some media interest, including the New York Times, BBC World, Nature, New Scientist, and Physics World and has been featured in around 500 newspaper, radio and television reports. He holds 2 patents.
Last update: 24-AUG-2017
Horstmeyer L, Pham TM, Korbel J, & Thurner S (2020). Predicting collapse of adaptive networked systems without knowing the network. Scientific Reports 10 (1): e1223. DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-57751-y.
Niederkrotenthaler T, Mittendorfer-Rutz E, Thurner S, Endel G, & Klimek P (2019). Healthcare utilization, psychiatric medication and risk of rehospitalization in suicide-attempting patients with common mental disorders. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry DOI:10.1177/0004867419895112. (In Press)
Lo Sardo DR, Thurner S, Sorger J, Duftschmid G, Endel G, & Klimek P (2019). Quantification of the resilience of primary care networks by stress testing the health care system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 48: 23930-23935. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1904826116.
Wildemeersch M, Franklin O , Seidl R, Rogelj J , Moorthy I, & Thurner S (2019). Modelling the multi-scaled nature of pest outbreaks. Ecological Modelling 409: e108745. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108745.
Leutner M, Matzhold C, Bellach L, Deischinger C, Harreiter J, Thurner S, Klimek P, & Kautzky-Willer A (2019). Diagnosis of osteoporosis in statin-treated patients is dose-dependent. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases 78: 1706-1711. DOI:10.1136/annrheumdis-2019-215714.
Klimek P, Poledna S, & Thurner S (2019). Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery. Nature Communications 10 (1): e1677. DOI:10.1038/s41467-019-09357-w.
Klimek P, Kreuzbauer R, & Thurner S (2019). Fashion and art cycles are driven by counter-dominance signals of elite competition: quantitative evidence from music styles. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 16 (151): p. 20180731. DOI:10.1098/rsif.2018.0731.
Korbel J, Hanel R, & Thurner S (2019). Information Geometric Duality of ϕ-Deformed Exponential Families. Entropy 21 (2): p. 112. DOI:10.3390/e21020112.
Hochrainer-Stigler S, Pflug G , Dieckmann U , Rovenskaya E, Thurner S, Poledna S, Boza G, Linnerooth-Bayer J, et al. (2018). Integrating Systemic Risk and Risk Analysis Using Copulas. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 9 (4): 561-567. DOI:10.1007/s13753-018-0198-1.
Leutner M, Klimek P, Göbl C, Bozkurt L, Harreiter J, Husslein P, Eppel W, Baumgartner-Parzer S, et al. (2018). Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) drives postprandial hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia in pregnant women with a history of roux-en-Y gastric bypass operation. Metabolism 91 DOI:10.1016/j.metabol.2018.10.006.
Hanel R & Thurner S (2018). Maximum Configuration Principle for Driven Systems with Arbitrary Driving. Entropy 20 (11): p. 838. DOI:10.3390/e20110838.
Horstmeyer L, Kuehn C, & Thurner S (2018). Network topology near criticality in adaptive epidemics. Physical Review E 98 (4): e042313. DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.98.042313.
Poledna S, Hinteregger A, & Thurner S (2018). Identifying Systemically Important Companies by Using the Credit Network of an Entire Nation. Entropy 20 (10): p. 792. DOI:10.3390/e20100792.
Wilson RK, Klimek P, Jiménez R, Hidalgo M, Hinteregger A, & Thurner S (2018). Forensic analysis of Turkish elections in 2017–2018. PLoS ONE 13 (10): e0204975. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0204975.
Korbel J, Hanel R, & Thurner S (2018). Classification of complex systems by their sample-space scaling exponents. New Journal of Physics 20 (9): e093007. DOI:10.1088/1367-2630/aadcbe.
Corominas-Murtra B, Hanel R, Zavojanni L, & Thurner S (2018). How driving rates determine the statistics of driven non-equilibrium systems with stationary distributions. Scientific Reports 8 (1): e10837. DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-28962-1.
Pichler A, Poledna S, & Thurner S (2018). Systemic-risk-efficient asset allocation: Minimization of systemic risk as a network optimization problem. Journal of Financial Stability (In Press)
Poledna S, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Miess M, Klimek P, Schmelzer S, Sorger J, Shchekinova E, Rovenskaya E, et al. (2018). When does a disaster become a systemic event? Estimating indirect economic losses from natural disasters. arXiv preprint
Sadilek M, Klimek P, & Thurner S (2018). Asocial balance—how your friends determine your enemies: understanding the co-evolution of friendship and enmity interactions in a virtual world. Journal of Computational Social Science 1 (1): 227-239. DOI:10.1007/s42001-017-0010-9.
Lansing JS, Abundo C, Jacobs GS, Guillot EG, Thurner S, Downey SS, Chew LY, Bhattacharya T, et al. (2017). Kinship structures create persistent channels for language transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 (49): 12910-12915. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1706416114.
Kautzky-Willer A, Thurner S, & Klimek P (2017). Use of statins offsets insulin-related cancer risk. Journal of Internal Medicine 281 (2): 206-216. DOI:10.1111/joim.12567.
Corominas-Murtra B, Hanel R, & Thurner S (2017). Sample space reducing cascading processes produce the full spectrum of scaling exponents. Scientific Reports 7 (1): e11223. DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-09836-4.
Leduc MV, Poledna S, & Thurner S (2017). Systemic risk management in financial networks with credit default swaps. The Journal of Network Theory in Finance 3 (3): 19-39. DOI:10.21314/JNTF.2017.034.
Thurner S, Corominas-Murtra B, & Hanel R (2017). Three faces of entropy for complex systems: Information, thermodynamics, and the maximum entropy principle. Physical Review E 96 (3) DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.96.032124.
Masuda N, Smirnov I, & Thurner S (2017). Formation of homophily in academic performance: Students change their friends rather than performance. PLOS ONE 12 (8): e0183473. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0183473.
Lansing JS, Thurner S, Chung NN, Coudurier-Curveur A, Karakaş Ç, Fesenmyer KA, & Chew LY (2017). Adaptive self-organization of Bali’s ancient rice terraces. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 (25): 6504-6509. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1605369114.
Poledna S, Bochmann O, & Thurner S (2017). Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based, systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 77: 230-246. DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2017.02.004.
Hanel R, Corominas-Murtra B, & Thurner S (2017). Understanding frequency distributions of path-dependent processes with non-multinomial maximum entropy approaches. New Journal of Physics 19 (3): e033008. DOI:10.1088/1367-2630/aa611d.
Altmann EG, Hanel R, Corominas-Murtra B, Liu B, & Thurner S (2017). Fitting power-laws in empirical data with estimators that work for all exponents. PLOS ONE 12 (2): e0170920. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0170920.
Poledna S, Miess M, Schmelzer S, Rovenskaya E, Hochrainer-Stigler S, & Thurner S (2017). Agent-based Modelling of Systemic Risk: A Big-data Approach. In: IIASA Institutional Evaluation 2017, 27 February-1 March 2017, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
Klimek P, Diakonova M, Eguíluz VM, San Miguel M, & Thurner S (2016). Dynamical origins of the community structure of an online multi-layer society. New Journal of Physics 18 (8): e083045. DOI:10.1088/1367-2630/18/8/083045.
Rinner C, Sauter S, Endel G, Heinze G, Thurner S, Klimek P, & Duftschmid G (2016). Improving the informational continuity of care in diabetes mellitus treatment with a nationwide Shared EHR system: Estimates from Austrian claims data. International Journal of Medical Informatics 92: 44-53. DOI:10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2016.05.001.
Leduc MV, Poledna S, & Thurner S (2016). Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps. SSRN Electronic Journal: 1-20. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.2713200.
Leduc MV, Poledna S, & Thurner S (2016). Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps. In: NetSci-X 2016, 11 -13 January, 2016, Wroclaw, Poland.
Corominas-Murtra B, Hanel R, & Thurner S (2016). Extreme robustness of scaling in sample space reducing processes explains Zipf’s law in diffusion on directed networks. New Journal of Physics 18 (9): 093010. DOI:10.1088/1367-2630/18/9/093010.
Corominas-Murtra B & Thurner S (2016). The Weak Core and the Structure of Elites in Social Multiplex Networks. In: Interconnected Networks. Eds. Garas, A., pp. 165-177 Cham, Switzerland: Springer International. ISBN 978-3-319-23945-310.1007/978-3-319-23947-7_10.
Holovatch Y, Mryglod O, Szell M, & Thurner S (2016). Analyses of a virtual world. In: Maths Meets Myths: Quantitative Approaches to Ancient Narratives. pp. 115-130 Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing. ISBN 978-3-319-39445-910.1007/978-3-319-39445-9_7.
Klimek Peter, Aichberger Silke, & Thurner S (2016). Disentangling genetic and environmental risk factors for individual diseases from multiplex comorbidity networks. Scientific Reports 6: art.no.39658. DOI:10.1038/srep39658.
Poledna S & Thurner S (2016). Elimination of systemic risk in financial networks by means of a systemic risk transaction tax. Quantitative Finance: 1-15. DOI:10.1080/14697688.2016.1156146.
Leduc MV, Poledna S, & Thurner S (2015). Systemic Risk Management in Financial Networks with Credit Default Swaps. In: Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa, 11 -13 November, 2015, Laxenburg, Austria.
Thurner S (2015). What if you know it all? Quantifying human behavior from a virtual world. In: Proceedings of the 2015 ACM International Joint Conference on Pervasive and Ubiquitous Computing and Proceedings of the 2015 ACM International Symposium on Wearable Computers - UbiComp '15. pp. 891-892 New York, USA: ACM. ISBN 978-1-4503-3575-110.1145/2800835.2809507.
Poledna S, Molina-Borboa JL, Martinez-Jaramillo S, van der Leij M, & Thurner S (2015). The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises. Journal of Financial Stability 20: 70-81. DOI:10.1016/j.jfs.2015.08.001.
Thurner S & Fuchs B (2015). Physical forces between humans and how humans attract and repel each other based on their social interactions in an online world. PLoS ONE 10 (7): e0133185. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0133185.
Thurner S, Hanel R, Liu B, & Corominas-Murtra B (2015). Understanding Zipf's law of word frequencies through sample-space collapse in sentence formation. Interface 12 (108): 0330. DOI:10.1098/rsif.2015.0330.
Sadilek M & Thurner S (2015). Physiologically motivated multiplex Kuramoto model describes phase diagram of cortical activity. Scientific Reports 5: no.10015. DOI:10.1038/srep10015.
Corominas-Murtra B, Hanel R, & Thurner S (2015). Understanding scaling through history-dependent processes with collapsing sample space. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (17): 5348-5353. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1420946112.
Klimek P, Kautzky-Willer A, Chmiel A, Schiller-Fruhwirth I, & Thurner S (2015). Quantification of diabetes comorbidity risks across life using nation-wide big claims data. PLoS Computational Biology 11 (4): e1004125. DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004125.
Mryglod O, Fuchs B, Szell M, Holovatch Y, & Thurner S (2015). Interevent time distributions of human multi-level activity in a virtual world. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 419: 681-690. DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.056.
Klimek P, Poledna S, Farmer JD, & Thurner S (2015). To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 50: 144-154. DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2014.08.020.
Corominas-Murtra B, Fuchs B, & Thurner S (2014). Detection of the elite structure in a virtual multiplex social system by means of a generalized K-core. PLoS ONE 9 (12): e112606. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0112606.
Frank AB, Goud Collins M, Levin SA, Lo AW, Ramo J, Dieckmann U, Kremenyuk V, Kryazhimskiy AV, et al. (2014). Dealing with femtorisks in international relations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (49): 17356-17362. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1400229111.
Percino G, Klimek P, & Thurner S (2014). Instrumentational complexity of music genres and why simplicity sells. PLoS ONE 9 (12): e115255. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0115255.
Chmiel A, Klimek P, & Thurner S (2014). Spreading of diseases through comorbidity networks across life and gender. New Journal of Physics 16: p. 115013. DOI:10.1088/1367-2630/16/11/115013.
Fuchs B, Sornette D, & Thurner S (2014). Fractal multi-level organisation of human groups in a virtual world. Scientific Reports 4: no.6526. DOI:10.1038/srep06526.
Klimek P, Leitner M, Kautzky-Willer A, & Thurner S (2014). Effect of fetal and infant malnutrition on metabolism in older age. Gerontology 60 (6): 502-507. DOI:10.1159/000358874.
Fuchs B & Thurner S (2014). Behavioral and network origins of wealth inequality: insights from a virtual world. PLoS ONE 9 (8) DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0103503.
Hanel R, Thurner S, & Gell-Mann M (2014). How multiplicity determines entropy and the derivation of the maximum entropy principle for complex systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (19): 6905-6910. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1406071111.
Percino G, Klimek P, & Thurner S (2014). Instrumentational complexity of music genres and why simplicity sells. arXiv:1405.5057 [physics.soc-ph] (May 2014)
Poledna S, Thurner S, Farmer JD, & Geanakoplos J (2014). Leverage-induced systemic risk under Basle II and other credit risk policies. Journal of Banking & Finance 42 (1): 199-212. DOI:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.01.038.
Tateishi AA, Hanel R, & Thurner S (2013). The transformation groupoid structure of the q-Gaussian family. Physics Letters A 377 (31-33): 1804-1809. DOI:10.1016/j.physleta.2013.05.028.
Thurner S, Klimek P, Szell M, Duftschmid G, Endel G, Kautzky-Willer A, & Kasper DC (2013). Reply to Klitz and Niklasson: Can viral infections explain the cross-sectional Austrian diabetes data? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (30): E2751. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1305494110.
Klimek P & Thurner S (2013). Triadic closure dynamics drives scaling laws in social multiplex networks. New Journal of Physics 15: 063008. DOI:10.1088/1367-2630/15/6/063008.
Thurner S & Poledna S (2013). DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks. Scientific Reports 3: no.1888. DOI:10.1038/srep01888.
Thurner S, Klimek P, Szell M, Duftschmid G, Endel G, Kautsky-Willer A, & Kasper DC (2013). Quantification of excess risk for diabetes for those born in times of hunger, in an entire population of a nation, across a century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (12): 4703-4707. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1215626110.
Szell M & Thurner S (2013). How women organize social networks different from men. Scientific Reports 3: no.1214. DOI:10.1038/srep01214.
Klimek P, Yegorov Y, Hanel R, & Thurner S (2012). Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 (41): 16469-16473. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1210722109.
Frank AB, Goud Collins M, Clegg M, Dieckmann U, Kremenyuk VA, Kryazhimskiy AV, Linnerooth-Bayer J, Levin SA, et al. (2012). Security in the Age of Systemic Risk: Strategies, Tactics and Options for Dealing with Femtorisks and Beyond. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-12-010
Klimek P, Hausmann R, & Thurner S (2012). Empirical confirmation of creative destruction from world trade data. PLoS ONE 7 (6) DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0038924.
Thurner S, Farmer JD, & Geanakoplos J (2012). Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility. Quantitative Finance 12 (5): 695-707. DOI:10.1080/14697688.2012.674301.
Thurner S, Szell M, & Sinatra R (2012). Emergence of good conduct, scaling and Zipf Laws in human behavioral sequences in an online world. PLoS ONE 7 (1): e29796. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0029796.
Thurner S & Hanel R (2012). The entropy of non-ergodic complex systems - A derivation from first principles. International Journal of Modern Physics: Conference Series 16: 105-115. DOI:10.1142/S2010194512007817.
Thurner S & Hanel R (2011). Peer-review in a world with rational scientists: Toward selection of the average. The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems 84 (4): 707-711. DOI:10.1140/epjb/e2011-20545-7.
Klimek P, Bayer W, & Thurner S (2011). The blogosphere as an excitable social medium: Richter's and Omori's Law in media coverage. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 390 (21): 3870-3875. DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2011.05.033.
Thurner S (2011). Comments by S. Thurner on the Visioneer white papers by D. Helbing and S. Balietti. EPL 195 (1): 161-163. DOI:10.1140/epjst/e2011-01409-0.
Wilkins JF & Thurner S (2010). The Jerusalem Game: Cultural evolution of the Golden Rule. Advances in Complex Systems 13 (5): 635-641. DOI:10.1142/S0219525910002785.
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