A Focus on Fine Particulate Matter

Introduction - Workplan - Recent Publications on PM - Links - RAINS home page

Workplan for 2000

• Implementation of a first version of a module to estimate emission control costs for primary particle emissions (this work is carried out in cooperation with the Norwegian Institute for Air Research);
• Analysis of atmospheric dispersion calculations for primary and secondary particles on a European scale and development of a first 'dispersion calculation module';
• Development of an initial framework for the integrated assessment of strategies to control the precursor emissions of fine particles.

These tasks will be implemented in parallel for various particle properties recognized to be potentially harmful (e.g., PM10, PM2.5, carbonaceous particles, etc.). By combining these elements (and adding existing information on SO2 and NOx controls), the project envisages to have a first 'integrated' version for a particle assessment tool available by the end of 2000. This prototype model will then be used for extensive sensitivity analyses to identify priority areas for further refinements.

This preliminary particle model will be implemented for Europe as a test case for long-range transport aspects of particle pollution, and for Seoul and Shanghai as test cases for urban situations in the Asian environment.

Workplan for 2001

• With the initial model framework developed in the year 2000, a systematic sensitivity analysis will be carried out to identify the components and model parameters that are most critical for deriving robust conclusions on cost-effective emission control strategies. While based on preliminary data and model realizations, this analysis should reveal the priority areas where further insights and improvement in data would be most beneficial. This work will be carried out at IIASA in direct interaction with the network of scientists cooperating under the scientific structure of the UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and the envisaged 'Clean Air for Europe' programme of the European Union. Thereby the findings will be discussed and interpreted from the perspectives of a range of scientific disciplines and thus directly contribute to a common scientific understanding of the particle problem in Europe.
  
  
• At least for secondary aerosols, transport and chemical formation processes in the atmosphere play an important role. Work in the year 2001 will attempt to construct appropriate source-receptor relationships that describe the fate of (primary and secondary) particles in the atmosphere. To the extent practically possible, the analysis will build on a range of available detailed atmospheric models describing the formation and dispersion of aerosols in Europe and identify in a systematic way the response of these models to changes in precursor emissions. It needs to be determined for which particle properties (PM10 or PM2.5 mass, carbonaceous particles, etc.) linear source-receptor relationships appear as appropriate, and for which situations (or interactions with other precursor emissions such as SO2 or NH3) a non-linear description will be required. Special attention will be paid to organic aerosols, keeping in mind the existing uncertainties in present modeling and monitoring techniques. The ultimate aim of this exercise will be to derive source-receptor relationships that can be included into the RAINS integrated assessment model (i.a., for optimizing least-cost emission control strategies). While the exact choice of dispersion models needs yet to be determined, the analysis will also contribute to a systematic comparison of the presently available atmospheric models and identify the areas where these model are in agreement. This will deliver important information for the uncertainty and robustness assessment of an overall cost-effectiveness analysis planned for the subsequent years.
  
  
• A number of important studies revisiting the findings of earlier analyses and collecting new evidence about on health impacts of fine particles will be completed in the U.S. and in Europe in the year 2000. It needs to be discussed with the health community how the results of these studies could be introduced into the envisaged assessment framework, so that a direct relation between emissions and emission control costs and the health effects can be established.
  

May 18, 2000