Uncertainty Treatment in Integrated Assessment Modelling

EMEP Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
at the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Laxenburg, Austria

Uncertainties and robustness are crucial aspects in the development and applications of integrated assessment models (IAM). Well in time before the next round of policy development for air pollution control in Europe under the Convention of Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and within the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme of the European Commission, CIAM organizes a workshop to review and discuss possible approaches for the treatment of uncertainties in IAM approaches. The workshop will discuss needs and wishes of decision makers with regard to uncertainties and robustness, review how uncertainties were addressed in past work in the context of air pollution and climate assessments and explore practical approaches for a refined treatment of uncertainties for the next round of assessments.

The workshop will be organized in four sessions:

• The role of uncertainties in decision making: Fundamental considerations about uncertainties in integrated assessment and perspectives from decision makers (international negotiators and industry)
• Uncertainties in the model chain of integrated assessment models: Review of the main uncertainties in integrated assessment models
• Methodologies for treating uncertainties in an integrated assessment: Presentations of practical approaches
• How to communicate unceratainties to decision makers and the public?

• Workshop agenda, abstracts of presentations and presentation slides
• Conclusions of the workshop
• List of participants