RAINS-Asia: The Regional Energy Scenario Generator (RESGEN) Module
The RESGEN module of RAINS-Asia estimates present and future energy supply and
consumption levels based on a wide variety of different socio-economic and
technological assumptions. Given a set of specifications concerning current
and future conditions (using either the extensive socio-economic and energy
demand and supply data bases in the model, or from user-specified alternative
assumptions), the model calculates energy scenarios for the period 1990 to 2020.
These energy scenarios can then be used as an input to the RAINS model to
calculate sulfur dioxide emissions, deposition, and environmental effects.
The RESGEN module is structured to provide answers to different types of
policy-relevant questions, including:
- What are the effects of changes in population and economic growth on
future energy demand?
- How do various economic and development policies for various economic
sectors affect energy production and consumption patterns?
Using RESGEN, a user can select, review, and modify a number of key parameters
on the sub-country (regional) level, including:
- socio-economic data: rates of population growth, and GDP growth
(broken down into three components: industrial, agricultural, and
commercial/other);
- growth rates of energy demand among six end-use sectors:
industrial, transportation, residential, commercial, agricultural, and other
uses. Energy supply and transformation systems are subdivided into electricity
generation, oil refining, and other industrial operations.
- energy intensity: i.e., the energy demand per unit of economic
activity for each of the six end-use sectors.
- fuel types used: Since SO2 emissions are highly dependent on
the type and characteristics of the fuel(s) used, the model considers a total of
17 different fuel types, including various qualities of coal, other solid
fuels, fuel oil, natural gas, renewable sources, hydropower, and nuclear.
- fuel characteristics, such as the sulfur content of various
fuels.
RAINS-Asia: Trends in Energy Consumption by Fuel
Type
In order to provide a yardstick by which to measure the effects of various
energy policies and control strategies, two energy demand scenarios have been
developed to describe possible future energy pathways for the Asian region.
The "base case" scenario relies on official energy projections from individual
countries whenever available. "Business-as-usual" policies, which use
historical or expected trends, were assumed in areas for which future economic
or energy data are incomplete or unavailable.
RESGEN was developed by Resource Management Associates (RMA).
A network of Asian
energy research institutions was established collaborating in developing
regional data bases and energy scenarios. The
Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)
in Bangkok was designated as a coordinating center for the network, which was
responsible for collecting the necessary data on a national and regional level,
and establishing long-term ties to key institutions and potential model users.
For more information on energy scenarios contact:
Resource Management Associates (RMA)
(e-mail
(resman@rma.com))
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis