Stochastic GLOBIOM and systemic risks

Stochastic GLOBIOM has been used to analyze interdependencies and trade-offs between structural and financial measures for hedging systemic risks and food, energy, water, environmental security in land use systems, which can be induced by climate change and weather variability.

© Vladimir Melnikov | Dreamstime

© Vladimir Melnikov | Dreamstime

In stochastic GLOBIOM [1], systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analyzed and mitigated in all their interactions. The model allows examination of the role of grain or water storage, these reserves can then be used as catastrophe pools to buffer production shortfalls and fulfill regional and global security requirements when extreme weather-related production shocks occur. The expected shortfalls and storage capacities are closely related to Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk measures. The model can suggest on how and where to allocate or adjust the storages in order to achieve more or less risk hedging. A paper in the Journal of Agricultural Economics [2] has been revised to address issues of global systemic risks and security management.

Figures 1-4. Distribution of storage withdrawals, in thousand tons, at the global level. Frequency refers to the absolute number of withdrawals within a range identified on the horizontal axis. Cumulative refers to the percentage of total of the withdrawals at or below the value on the horizontal axis.

Figure 1. Rice.
















Figure 2. Wheat.
















Figure 3. Rape.











Figure 4. Sunflower.


References

[1] Ermolieva TY, Ermoliev YM, Havlik P, Mosnier A, Leclere D, Kraxner F, Khabarov N, Obersteiner M (2015). Systems analysis of robust strategic decisions to plan secure food, energy, and water provision based on the stochastic GLOBIOM model. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis, 51(1):125-133.

[2] Ermolieva TY, Ermoliev YM, Havlik P, Mosnier A,  Obersteiner M, Leclere D, Khabarov N, Valin, H, Reuter, W. (2015). Integrated management of land use systems under systemic risks and food-energy-water-environmental security targets: a stochastic GLOBAL Biosphere Management Model. Journal of Agricultural Economics (submitted and revised in 2015, under review).

[3] Fuss S, Havlik P, Szolgayova J, Schmid E, Reuter WH, Khabarov N, Obersteiner M, Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Kraxner F (2015). Global food security & adaptation under crop yield volatility. Technological Forecasting and Social change, 98:223-233.


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Last edited: 16 March 2016

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Petr Havlik

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Hugo Valin

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