Methods for Economic Decision-Making under Uncertainty

The Methods for Economic Decision-Making under Uncertainty (MEDU) group, part of Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM), was involved in a number of assessments of the potential for emissions reductions from land use, land-use change, and forestry.

© Kippy Spilker | Dreamstime

© Kippy Spilker | Dreamstime

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is a key focus for ESM, and MEDU researchers identified two promising approaches to REDD-based, emissions offsetting in the energy sector. These comprised (i) increasing risk-aversion of the energy producers, or exposing risk-averse behavior, and (ii) activating the benefit sharing mechanism.

In a similar vein, the group has advanced analysis of offsets and permits in the context of international carbon markets and investigated investment uncertainty. The group also made major improvements to its standalone fire model, and used it to model the burned areas in Europe under historical climate.

Benefit sharing in emissions offsetting

The Methods for Economic Decision-Making under Uncertainty (MEDU) group has identified promising approaches to emissions offsetting in the energy sector under Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) mechanism. These include increasing risk-aversion of energy producers, exposing risk-averse behavior, and activating a benefit-sharing mechanism. More

Modeling burned areas for Europe

The Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program has carried out a series of improvements to the quantitative modeling of burned areas in Europe under historical climate, supported by its standalone fire model (SFM). More

International carbon markets under uncertainty

The Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program’s Methods for Economic Decision-Making under Uncertainty (MEDU) group has advanced analysis of offsets and permits in the context of international carbon markets and investment uncertainty. More


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Last edited: 22 March 2016

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Nikolay Khabarov

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Ecosystems Services and Management

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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