This project will develop a harmonized strategic approach for integrated modeling to achieve a secure sustainable supply of energy, food, and water under natural and human-related intentional and unintentional threats.
A two-stage stochastic model was built. Interdependent strategic long-term (anticipative, ex ante) decisions and short-term (adaptive, ex post) decisions (adjustments) were incorporated into integrated stochastic optimization models, and a robust strategic solution to achieve a secure sustainable supply of energy, food, and water under natural and human-related intentional and unintentional threats was achieved.
For further coal development, water storage should be built in such a way that water shortages are avoided. Otherwise, water demand for energy and crops will be not be met. Food security is not high in Shanxi. To ensure against shortages policymakers should sign a long-term food purchase agreement with food producers outside the region.
 Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Havlík P, et al. (2015). Systems analysis of robust strategic decisions to plan secure food, energy, water provision based on stochastic GLOBIOM. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis. In press.
 Ermoliev Y, Wets RJ-B (1988). Numerical techniques for stochastic optimization. Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany.
Yurii Yermoliev, Advanced Systems Analysis Program, IIASA
Tatiana Ermolieva, Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA
Cuiqing Sun, of the China University of Mining & Technology, is a citizen of China. He was funded by the IIASA Chinese National Member Organization and worked in the Advanced Systems Analysis Program during the YSSP.
Please note these Proceedings have received limited or no review from supervisors and IIASA program directors, and the views and results expressed therein do not necessarily represent IIASA, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.
Last edited: 03 February 2016
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