Systemic risk and network dynamics

The Evolution and Ecology Program (EEP) addresses these challenges as part of an interdisciplinary cross-cutting project developed with the Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) and Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) Programs, which promotes methodological development, theoretical investigations, and insights from case studies.

• A review published in the top-ranking journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA [1] highlighted the perils of “femtorisks.” While small compared to traditionally well-recognized risks, femtorisks may go unnoticed and operate on longer timescales, yet propel systems down paths of increasing instability. The study recommends approaches inspired by evolutionary and ecological theory for assessing and managing such risks.
• A novel framework for modelling and analyzing the impact of species extinctions in ecological communities, shows how risks of cascading detrimental impacts spreading through ecosystems can be predicted from structural features of their species-interaction networks [2].
• In a joint investigation with IIASA’s ASA Program, EEP is spearheading the development of a software platform for assessing cognitive human limitations in quantifying systemic risks and the associated perils of cascading failures in interconnected systems (Figure 1).

Figure 1. A software platform is being developed for creating networks of increasing complexity and conducting surveys of users regarding their perceptions of the associated perils of cascading failures (click on image to enlarge).

Last edited: 02 June 2015