Food-energy-water nexus: Robust solutions

Through case studies, Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program researchers model interconnected food, water, and energy systems at the local and global levels with the aim of suggesting robust management strategies with respect to uncertainties and risks.

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Regional management aims at economic development that is sustainable in terms of supplying enough food, water, and energy to a region’s inhabitants. Food, water, and energy production is, however, subject to large uncertainties that are related to weather and climate variability, market volatility, etc. Proper policies must ensure the security of food, water, and energy supply despite any uncertainty. ASA researchers develop quantile-based stochastic optimization methods to produce robust solutions in models representing strongly interconnected food-energy-water systems.

In particular, in this area ASA researchers provided methodological support for developing a stochastic version of the GLOBIOM model, hosted and developed by the Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program. It allows the design of robust strategic decisions for optimal planning of major land use systems (agriculture, forestry, bio-fuel production), given the constraints on water and other resources, and aims to ensure food and energy security targets are achieved by all countries; downscaling allows local scenarios consistent with global projections to be generated [1][2][3][4][5].

References

[1] Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Havlík P, Mosnier A, Leclere D, Khabarov N, Kraxner F, Obersteiner M (2014a). Systems analysis of robust strategic decisions for planning secure food, energy, and water provision based on the stochastic GLOBIOM model. Journal of Cybernetics and Systems Analysis, 1: 125-133

[2] Ermolieva T, Ermoliev Y, Havlík P, Mosnier A, Fuss F, Leclere D, Kraxner F, Khabarov N, Obersteiner M (2014b). Systems analysis of strategic decisions for planning secure food, energy, water provision based on stochastic GLOBIOM . In: Integrated management, Security and Robustness, Zagorodny AG, Ermoliev YM, Bogdanov VL (eds), published by the Committee for Systems Analysis and Presidium of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, 183-198, ISBN 978-966-02-7376-4

[3] Zagorodny AG, Ermoliev YM, Bogdanov VL, eds (2014). Integrated management, security and robustness. Published by the Committee for Systems Analysis and Presidium of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, ISBN 978-966-02-7376-4

[4] Atoyev KL, Golodnikov AN, Gorbacuk VM, Ermoliev YM, Ermolieva TYu, Kiriljuk VS, Knopov PS (2014). The mathematical problems of complex management and effective utilization of food, energy and water resources under increased uncertainties. In: Integrated management, Security and Robustness, Zagorodny AG, Ermoliev YM, Bogdanov VL (eds.), published by the Committee for Systems Analysis and Presidium of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, 198-228, ISBN 978-966-02-7376-4

[5] Ermoliev Y, Ermolieva T, Havlík P, Mosnier A, Fuss F, Leclere D, Obersteiner M., Kostyuchenko Y (2014). Estimating local-global dependencies of land use systems by downscaling from GLOBIOM model. In: Integrated management, Security and Robustness, Zagorodny AG, Ermoliev YM, Bogdanov VL (eds), published by the Committee for Systems Analysis and Presidium of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, 228-240, ISBN 978-966-02-7376-4


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Last edited: 02 April 2015

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