Risk modeling

Comprehensive modeling of the effects of climate change, including extreme events, by RPV  involves advanced techniques and takes into account stakeholder requests and needs. 

Lightning over water © StrikingPhotography | iStock

Lightning over water

In a new study, RPV researchers focused on providing global and regional perspectives on changing rainfall-driven flood risk under climate change for the early 21st century. Modeling showed a low confidence in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change, and that even without climate change, more people will be flood exposed over time due mainly to increases in population and capital in vulnerable areas.

RPV staff introduced a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process.  

Researchers contributed to the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction coordinated by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction which drew heavily on RPV modeling.

A new multi-authored book on “Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modelling” which not only showed how climate change can be incorporated in probabilistic catastrophe models, but also demonstrated how advanced models can inform participatory stakeholder processes was edited by RPV researchers in 2013 [1].

Modeling flood risk

A major focus of risk modeling work in Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) has been on flood risk, which is often considered the dominant extreme event hazard. More

UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

IIASA researchers contributed to the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction coordinated by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. More

Advanced techniques for extreme event risk

Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) staff introduced a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process. More

New book has systems perspective

Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) Program researchers edited a comprehensive multi-authored book on “Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modelling” which is an outcome of research on catastrophic risk carried out by RPV scientists and their network of collaborators. More

 


[1] Amendola A, Ermolieva T, Linnerooth-Bayer J, & Mechler R (Eds) (2013). Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes. Springer.

Collaborators

UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.



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Last edited: 22 May 2014

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