Advanced techniques for extreme event risk

Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) staff introduced a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process.

Map, focus Europe

Map, focus Europe

The analysis of extreme event risk requires advanced modeling techniques. A new method [1] introduced by RPV researchers, was applied to flood risk in Europe.

Based on a "hybrid convolution" approach, flood loss distributions for nearly all European countries were calculated. Such risk-based estimates of extreme event losses are useful for determining suitable risk management strategies on various spatial levels for different risk bearers.

The method is not only applicable for natural disaster risk but can be extended for other cases as well, namely, where co-monotonic risks have to be "summed up" without loss of risk information.

Figure 1

Up-scaling of losses over regional cluster levels.

References

[1] Hochrainer-Stigler S et al. (2014) Up-scaling of impact dependent loss distributions: A hybrid convolution approach for flood risk in Europe. Natural Hazards 70(2):1437-1451 (January 2014) (Published online 10 October 2013).



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Last edited: 22 May 2014

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Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

Senior Research Scholar

Risk and Resilience

T +43(0) 2236 807 517

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
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