Adaptation response of agriculture to climate change - Model comparisons

The Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program actively participated in two comparison exercises with the GLOBIOM model, looking at how the model reacts to different scenarios of climate change.

Climate change © dominiquelandau | iStock

Climate change

The biophysical impact of changing temperature and precipitation patterns on agricultural activities is uncertain, but models also respond differently to these shocks when economic adjustments are considered.  

Results showed that, although models differ on the distribution of responses, much of the climate shock is expected to be buffered through management and market responses.

Models were also compared on other technical aspects, from food demand to land use or technical change. 

Figure 1. Variability of biophysical impact due to climate change (YEXO) and response in 9 economic models on final yield (YTOT), area (AREA), production (PROD), trade share in production (TRSH), consumption (CONS) and prices (PRICE). Results are analyzed for 4 crops aggregates, 13 regions and 7 biophysical models output, based on a high climate change scenario (RCP8.5) without consideration of CO2 fertilization effect.


References

[1] Nelson GC, Valin H, Sands RD, Havlík P, Ahammad H, Deryng D, Elliott J, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, von Lampe M, Lotze-Campen H, Mason D'Croz D, van Meijl H, van der Mensbrugghe D, Müller C, Popp A , Robertson R, Robinson S, Schmid E, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, Willenbockel D (2013). Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[2] von Lampe M, Willenbockel D, Ahammad H, Blanc E, Cai Y, Calvin K, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlík P, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Lotze-Campen H, Mason D'Croz D, Nelson GC, Sands RD, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, Valin H, van der Mensbrugghe D, van Meijl H (2014).Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison. Agricultural Economics 45 (1) 3-20.
[3] Lotze-Campen H, von Lampe M, Kyle P, Fujimori S, Havlik P, van Meijl H, Hasegawa T, Popp A, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, Valin H, Willenbockel D, Wise M (2014). Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: An AgMIP economic model intercomparison. Agricultural Economics 45(1) 103-16.
[4] Nelson GC, van der Mensbrugghe D, Ahammad H, Blanc E, Calvin K, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Lotze-Campen H, von Lampe M, Mason d'Croz D, van Meijl H, Müller C, Reilly J, Robertson R, Sands RD, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, Takahashi K, Valin H, Willenbockel D (2014). Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree. Agricultural Economics 45 (1) 85--101.
[5] Robinson S, van Meijl H, Willenbockel D, Valin H, Fujimori S, Masui T, Sands R, Wise M, Calvin K, Havlik P, Mason d'Croz D, Tabeau A, Kavallari A, Schmitz C, Dietrich J P, von Lampe M (2014). Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system. Agricultural Economics 45 (1) 21-35.
[6] Schmitz C, van Meijl H, Kyle P, Nelson GC, Fujimori S, Gurgel A, Havlík P, Heyhoe E, D'Croz DM, Popp A, Sands RD, Tabeau A, van der Mensbrugghe D, von Lampe M, Wise M, Blanc E, Hasegawa T, Kavallari A, Valin H (2014). Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison. Agricultural Economics 45 (1) 69-84.
[7] Valin H, Sands RD, van der Mensbrugghe D, Nelson GC, Ahammad H, Blanc E, Bodirsky B, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlík P, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Manson-D'Croz D, Paltsev S, Rolinski S, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, von Lampe M, Willenbockel D (2014). The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models. Agricultural Economics 45 (1) 51-67.

Collaborators

Gerald Nelson. International Food Policy Research Institute, USA;
Martin von Lampe, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, France;
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Food and Agriculture Organisation, Italy;
Herman Lotze-Campen, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany;
Hans van Meijl, LEI-Wageningen University, Netherlands;
Ronald Sands, US Department of Agriculture, USA;
Shinishiro Fujimori, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan;
Helal Ahammad, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australia;
Page Kyle, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, USA.


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Last edited: 22 May 2014

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