Model performance

The Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program reviewed techniques available across various fields for characterizing the performance of environmental models with a focus on numerical, graphical, and qualitative methods.

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To use environmental models effectively for management and decision making, establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance is vital. The work reviewed techniques available in different fields. 

A five-step procedure for performance evaluation of models was suggested, with the key elements including:

  1.  (re)assessment of the model's aim, scale and scope;
  2.  characterization of the data for calibration and testing;
  3.  visual and other analysis to detect under- or non-modeled behavior and to gain an overview of overall performance;
  4. selection of basic performance criteria; and
  5. consideration of more advanced methods to handle problems such as systematic divergence between modeled and observed values.


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Last edited: 21 May 2014

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