Activities for 2014

While existing research will continue from 2013, advances are expected in the Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) Program's key methodological areas in 2014.

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2014

New results are expected in Dynamic systems, control, and optimization. Continuing work is planned on the analysis of economic growth models and innovative research is planned on bringing income and other inequities into theoretical models of economic growth. Within the project "Optimization of Resource Productivity for Sustainable Economic Development” drivers of balanced multi-sectoral economic growth will be addressed.

In Multiple objectives, trade-offs, and games, novel dynamic market equilibria alternatives to the Nash equilibrium will be developed. In the ASA Forum, the MAG-ESM-ASA project “Analysis of close-to-optimal zones in LP decision-support models” new methodology will be developed to enhance IIASA's GAINS model. An assessment is planned of tradeoffs related to underground coal mining in Shanxi province in China. An MCMA prototype software tool has been developed and application of dedicated versions of the IIASA’s MESSAGE model will be discussed.

In Systemic risk, networks and information theory, within the EEP-ASA-RPV project “Systemic risk and network dynamics,” a unified methodology for the measuring, predicting, reducing, and repairing of systemic risks in different network types will start development. In the ASA Forum, the EEP-ASA project “Systematic misperception of systemic risk” research will be conducted into influences on people’s perception of systemic risk.

In Uncertainty, resilience, risk and robust solutions, software is planned for a network-based analysis and measurement of social cohesion and resilience of critical systems in Austria. Within the project “Efficiency and security of land resource management under rapid agricultural land use transformation and increasing interactions between urban-rural processes sloping areas in China: Case studies in Chongqing” a stochastic model will be developed for assessing decisions “on-farming” vs. “off-farming” and potential abandonment of agricultural plots in sloping areas of Chongqing municipality, China.

In Integrated modeling and qualitative analysis within the project "COMPLEX” a comparison of approaches to the integration of partners' economy-climate models will take place. In the Eurasian project, workshops are planned on several scenarios of economic integration for the countries and regions involved. The project EnRiMa will be completed in 2014; results will be adapted to the needs of the project “Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS)”.

In Artificial intelligence and data analysis, new methodology for the ASA-TNT project on stochastic agent-based modeling of the global energy system will be developed and used for scenario assessment. A downscaling procedure will be developed for “Development of robust rescaling methods for integrated water, food, energy security management under uncertainty." For the COMPLEX project a new methodology is planned to detect and predict structural changes in land-use patterns. Gamification as an approach to collect data for further analysis of behavioral patterns will be explored.

In Simulations and agent-based modeling it is planned to develop a generic agent-based modeling framework for the “Dream Valley” and to customize it to other Finnish and possibly Korean regions.


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Last edited: 21 May 2014

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Elena Rovenskaya

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