Future Impacts of Climate Change (FutureSoc)

Although there is ongoing research assessing the impact of future climate change on the Earth’s physical systems, there are few studies on the likely impacts of global change on human well-being. FutureSoc is an effort to define the likely consequences of future climate change for human societies and define what capacity those societies will have to adapt to the changes.

The study uses a multidisciplinary approach to answer questions about our ability to adapt and should inform policy makers about what paths to follow and what first steps to take in implementing adaptation strategies.

The study examines global long-term projections of human capital (population by age, sex and education level) as a key element of adaptive capacity. It also analyzes three multi-national studies of key factors involved in past “vulnerability and adaptation” events –the Sahelian drought in North Africa, Hurricane Mitch in Central America, and the Asian tsunami of 2004.

FutureSoc includes case studies of the future adaptive capacity of the Phuket region of Thailand, India’s Nicobar Islands, and the island of Mauritius in the southwest Indian Ocean.

The goal is to use the historic and prospective research to develop a new demographic theory of long-term social change with predictive power. The project is built on previous work by Wolfgang Lutz, FutureSoc’s lead investigator, and other IIASA researchers.

Last edited: 21 June 2012