23 November 2016
The EU has to submit a mid-century, long-term, low GHG strategy to the UNFCCC. This requires examination of actions that are needed to limit the increase in global temperature to well below 2°C or even 1.5°C (above pre-industrial levels). The Paris Agreement's goal is to balance anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. Research suggests that biomass plays a crucial role either as BECCS or as a carbon sink.
The objective of the EUCLIMIT project is to perform model-based scenario quantification which supports the European Commission in undertaking impact assessments and analysing policy options for implementing and further developing the Climate and Energy package and other climate-relevant policies in the EU.
IIASA's AIR team uses advanced systems analysis to inform key policy processes and international negotiations on clean air and greenhouse gas mitigation. As a model partner in the EUCLIMIT project financed by the European Commission DG-CLIMA, IIASA's GAINS model provides the scientific background on the future emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases as input to the policy process. The model identifies baseline emission pathways to 2050 for the non-CO2 greenhouse gases methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and F-gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6), as well as cost-effective mitigation pathways for each member state.
Based on projections of bioenergy demand for EU countries, researchers from the IIASA ESM program estimate impacts on emissions in the land use sector, including activities like forest management, deforestation, afforestation, cropland and grassland management. A reference and a business-as-usual scenario are being developed to assess impacts of policies on this sector. The global land use model GLOBIOM and the global forestry model G4M are applied. Both models have been substantially improved in their geographical resolution for this project. Results will give insight into the future emissions from different land uses and land use changes in EU countries and their drivers, as well as into impacts of EU policies including environmental, social and economic implications.
Last edited: 21 November 2016
Capros P, De Vita A, Tasios N, Siskos P, Kannavou M, Petropoulos A, Evangelopoulou S, Zampara M, et al. (2016). EU Reference Scenario 2016 - Energy, transport and GHG emissions Trends to 2050. European Commission Directorate - General for Energy, Directorate - General for Climate Action and Directorate - General for Mobility and Transport
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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