26 January 2015

EU Clean Air Policy Package updates

The IIASA GAINS modelling team has produced an updated emissions control scenario for the EU Commission as part of its continued support for the Commission's Clean Air Policy Package. The update takes account of new information provided by Member States in the course of bilateral consultations with IIASA during summer 2014.

The updated scenario results in the same relative reduction in premature mortality as the original Commission proposal (52% by 2030 compared to 2005) with the same gap closure of 67%. Hence, the overall equivalent reduction of PM precursor emissions (primary PM2.5, NOx, SO2, VOC and NH3) remains the same compared to the earlier proposal.

However, the improved information on PM2.5 emission sources in 2005 and their likely future development suggests a larger decline of PM2.5 emissions in the baseline case, requiring fewer additional measures to achieve the targeted reduction in premature mortality. This also softens the emission reduction requirements for the other pollutants, and reduces costs for the additional measures by one third compared to the original proposal.

Where the national scenarios provided by Member States showed features that could not be matched with coherent EU‐wide scenarios, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. This demonstrated the attainability of re‐optimized emission ceilings with available technical emission control measures for the 19 Member States that provided such national projections.

The EU Commission's Climate and Energy Policy Package envisages substantially lower CO2 emissions in the future, with the co‐benefit of lower SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions compared to those assumed for the Clean Air Policy Package. Thus, the recent agreement on climate and energy policy offers an additional margin for the attainability of the emission reduction requirements.

Further information is available in the reports:


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Last edited: 02 May 2015

CONTACT DETAILS

Markus Amann

Program Director

Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases

T +43(0) 2236 807 432

Access to the GAINS online model

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