Education Back and Forward Projections 1970-2050

Education Back and Forward Projections (1970-2050) try to improve the assumptions for the scenarios about future school enrollment changes and educational transition  probabilities from one state of attainment to the next.

A serious and policy-relevant effort in education forecasting requires more than the application of existing multi-state models.

These methods need educational transition rates as input variables, but deriving realistic values for these transition rates is far from trivial.

Some major issues are:

  • How fast can educational systems expand when you start at a low level?
  • How quickly can the teachers be trained?
  • How fast can the schools be built?
  • What are the repetition rates?

Within IIASA such issues have been addressed in the context of recent PDE (population-development-environment) case studies on Mozambique and Namibia. It has involved using separate demographic  models for the population of teachers and students, which distinguish individual year school grades, in addition to the multi-state model of the adult population.

Similarly sophisticated analyses will be needed for applications to other countries.

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Last edited: 22 July 2013


Samir K.C.

Project Leader

World Population

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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