Egypt
IIASA’s World Population Program and the Cairo Demographic Center have finished a study on projecting future population and human capital growth at the level of governorates in Egypt. Their findings were presented March 7th 2007 at a symposium at the Egyptian Academy of Scientific Research and Technology.
This study applies a very powerful demographic methodology - called multi-state population projections - which was developed at IIASA and can model the dynamics of population change not only by age and sex, but also by additional dimensions such as the level of educational attainment. It also considers the fact that women with different levels of educational attainment tend to have different levels of fertility. Since the spatial distribution of the population greatly matters, and there are important differences in the levels of human capital among the different parts of Egypt, the analysis is carried out at the level of individual governorates. The data is based on the 1996 census and has been updated in terms of more recent trends with the help of the 2000 and 2005 Demographic and Health Surveys. The model is set up in a way that as soon as reliable data from the 2006 census becomes available at this level of disaggregation, the projections can be updated.
Executive summary (PDF): High resolution -- Low resolution (fax print quality)
The POPNET newsletter (No. 36, Autumn 2004) focus on Africa with emphasis on the IIASA PDE Case Study Egypt. Please download the POPNET by clicking here.
