Population Forecasting and Aging

While the 20th century was the century of population growth, the 21st century is likely to become the century of population aging

There is no doubt that global population aging will be one of the “megatrends” of the coming century. While significant research efforts have recently been initiated on the health aspects and on the social and economic consequences of aging, no research organization has so far given the dynamics of aging in different parts of the world (including the uncertainties involved) systematic and explicit scientific consideration. For example, the UN does not consider mortality uncertainty in its projections, making them entirely inappropriate for the analysis of dependency ratios.

Based on its probabilistic population forecasts, IIASA has a competitive advantage for establishing a position of global leadership in the analysis of the dynamics of possible and likely population aging in different parts of the world. With this in mind, a new project has been initiated on the Dynamics of Global Population Aging.

Substantively, the Dynamics of Global Population Aging Project will focus primarily on the demographic processes that lead to different paths of aging in different world regions and countries, and estimate the uncertainties involved in these assessments. 

The Dynamics of Global Population Aging Project

The Dynamics of Global Population Aging Project focuses primarily on the demographic processes that lead to different paths of aging in different world regions and countries, and estimates the uncertainties involved in these assessments. More



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Last edited: 03 June 2013

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Sergei Scherbov

Deputy Program Director

World Population

T +43(0) 2236 807 584

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313