29 November 2018 - 01 December 2018
The PAP Executive Council is pleased to announce its 19th Annual Population Research Conference on “Population and Development – Policy and Programme Implementation Challenges in Pakistan”. The PAP in collaboration with the University of Peshawar will organize this Annual Conference from November 29 to December 1, 2018 at the University of Peshawar, Pakistan. The conference provides an opportunity for policy makers, researchers, politicians, religious leaders, media, and civil society to discuss population and development related issues. The of this conference is to inspire policy action to address the challenges hindering development program implementation in Pakistan.
IIASA researcher Anne Goujon was invited to give a presentation on 30 November entitled "Assessing the 2017 census of Pakistan using demographic analysis: A sub-national perspective", coauthored by Asif Wazir of UNFPA. Her main research interests are the analysis and projections at macro-level of background characteristics of the population acquired during childhood that rarely change once an individual has emancipated from parental control such as education and religion. She has applied the methodology of multi-state population projections to many settings showing through scenarios the impact of the long-term dynamics of demographic change on these characteristics, and reversely the impact of heterogeneous demographic behaviors of these groups on the overall population.
For more information please visit the event website.
In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at sub-national level, in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this paper to use demographic analysis to assess potential counting issues with the 2017 census at the sub-national level, using the 1998 census data and all available intercensal surveys to reconstruct the 2017 population. Applying the cohort-component method of population projection, we subject each eight first-level subnational entities to assumptions regarding the level of fertility, mortality, international, and internal migration derived from the analysis of the existing data. Comparing the census results with our reconstruction, we find that the difference is minimal at the national level: an estimated 212.6 million compared to 207.7 million counted (2.3% difference). However, we found considerable sub-national variations particularly for the Islamabad Capital Territory and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, pointing at the possibility of over- and under-count in the census.
Last edited: 23 November 2018
Population Dynamics and Global Human Capital
Wazir MA & Goujon A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857 (2019). Assessing the 2017 Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis: A Sub-National Perspective. Vienna Institute of Demography
Kebede E, Goujon A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, & Lutz W (2019). Stalls in Africa’s fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: e201717288. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1717288116.
Speringer M, Goujon A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, KC S, Potančoková M ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6115-5952, Reiter C, Jurasszovich S, & Eder J (2019). Global Reconstruction of Educational Attainment, 1950 to 2015: Methodology and Assessment. Vienna Institute of Demography
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