24 July 2017 - 26 July 2017
Bergamo, Italy

Applying demographic methods and concepts to the study of vulnerability to global environmental change

The concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections present an effective analytical tool box to forecast important aspects of societal change that directly affect future adaptive capacity.

Bergamo © leoks/shutterstock

Bergamo © leoks/shutterstock

This conference is focused to bring together statisticians and other scientists to collaborate on the topics of climate and environment. It is organized jointly by the International Environmetrics Society (TIES) and the Italian Research Group for Statistical Applications to Environmental Problems (GRASPA) and will be held at the University of Bergamo, Italy from Monday 24th July to Wednesday 26th July and it will be a satellite meeting of the 61st World Statistics Congress – ISI2017 in Marrakesh.

Raya Muttarak will present latest research from the World Population Program that she conducted together with Wolfgang Lutz during the session on the interaction between population and environment on Wednesday, 26 July, from 2:00-3:20PM. The presentation entitled "Applying demographic methods and concepts to the study of vulnerability to global environmental change" will highlight the relevance of incorporating knowledge and analytical tools from a demography in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.

For more information to the conference please visit the event website.

Abstract

Applying demographic methods and concepts to the study of vulnerability to global environmental change • Raya Muttarak and Wolfgang Lutz, Wed, 26 July, 2:00-3:20PM

How future societies will be different from today’s in their capacities to cope with climate change is one of the most significant gaps in our understanding of how dangerous climate change will be for future human well-being. Simply assuming that future societies will be identical to those seen today is misleading because we know that both climate conditions and societies are changing. In this presentation, we contend that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections present an effective analytical tool box to forecast important aspects of societal change that directly affect future adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition (as one important demographic characteristic that is quantifiable and forecastable) of the population in the future can influence societies’ adaptive capacity. By demonstrating how multi-dimensional population projections have been used to form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, we highlight the relevance of incorporating knowledge and analytical tools from a demography in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.


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Last edited: 24 July 2017

CONTACT DETAILS

Raya Muttarak

Research Scholar

World Population

T +43(0) 2236 807 329

Project

Forecasting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313