Arnulf Grubler

Arnulf Grubler (Grübler) first joined IIASA in 1976 to work with the Energy Systems Program and currently works as a Senior Research Scholar and Acting Program Director of the Transitions to New Technologies Program. He also holds a part-time appointment as Professor in the Field of Energy and Technology at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, USA. His teaching and research focuses on the long-term history and future of technology and the environment with emphasis on energy, transport, and communication systems.

Prof. Grubler received his master's degree in engineering from the Technical University of Vienna, where he was also awarded his PhD. He completed his Habilitation (venia legendi in systems science of environment and technology) at the Mining University Leoben, Austria. He is also foreign member elect of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences.

Prof. Grubler has been serving as Lead and Contributing Author and as Review Editor for the Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize). He was also Convening Lead and Coordinating Author for three knowledge modules of the Global Energy Assessment completed in 2012. He currently serves on the editorial boards of Carbon Management and Journal of Industrial Ecology.

He has published widely as author, coauthor, or editor of twelve books, three special journal issues, over 100 peer reviewed articles and book chapters, and over 30 additional professional papers in the domains of (modeling of) technological change and diffusion, long wave theory, historical transitions in energy and transport systems, long-term future scenarios, energy technology innovation systems and policy, climate change, and resource economics.

Examples of his latest publications include the book Energizing Sustainable Cities: Assessing Urban Energy, (edited together with David Fisk), Earthscan, 2013; and two major review articles on energy technology innovations systems and innovation portfolio biases: "The Energy Technology Innovation System", Annual Review of Environment and Resources 2012, 37:137-162 (with K. Sims Gallagher, L. Kuhl, G. Nemet, and C. Wilson); and "Marginalization of End-use Technologies in Energy Innovation for Climate Protection". Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, 26 October 2012:780-788.

Last update: 02-JAN-2014

Grubler A, Wilson C, and Nemet GF (2016) Apples, oranges, and consistent comparisons of the temporal dynamics of energy transitions. Energy Research & Social Science, 22. pp. 18-25.

Koomey J, Hultman N E, and Grubler A (2016) A reply to “Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors”. Energy Policy. (In Press)

Leibowicz BD, Krey V, and Grubler A (2016) Representing spatial technology diffusion in an energy system optimization model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 103. pp. 350-363.

Nemet GF, Grubler A, and Kammen DM (2016) Countercyclical energy and climate policy for the US. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIREs). Climate Change, 7 (1). pp. 5-12.

Smith P, Davis SJ, Creutzig F, Fuss S, et al. (2016) Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nature Climate Change, 6 (1). pp. 42-50.

Shchiptsova A, Zhao J, Grubler A, Kryazhimskiy A, et al. (2016) Assessing historical realibility of the agent-based model of the global energy system. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. (In Press)

Shchiptsova A, Zhao J-J, Grubler A, Kryazhimskii A, et al. (2016) Assessing historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 25 (3). pp. 326-350.

Wilson C and Grubler A (2015) Historical Characteristics and Scenario Analysis of Technological Change in the Energy System. In: Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research . Bloomsbury Academic, Norwich, UK, pp. 45-80. ISBN 978-1-4725-8079-5

Grubler A, Ermoliev Y, and Kryazhimskiy A (2015) Coping with uncertainties-examples of modeling approaches at IIASA. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 98. pp. 213-222.

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, Pachauri S, Rogner H-H, et al. (2014) Energy Primer. Online Textbook based on Chapter 1 of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (September 2014)

Rao ND, Riahi K, and Grubler A (2014) Climate impacts of poverty eradication. Nature Climate Change, 4 (9). pp. 749-751.

Grubler A (2014) The French Pressurised Water Reactor Programme. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A (2014) Grand designs: Historical patterns and future scenarios of energy technological change. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A, Diaz Anadon L, Gallagher KS, Kempener R, et al. (2014) Global R&D, market formation, and diffusion investments in energy technology innovation. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A and Fuss S (2014) Technology portfolios: Modelling technological uncertainty and innovation risks. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A and Nemet GF (2014) Sources and consequences of knowledge depreciation. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A and Wilson C (2014) Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A and Wilson C (2014) Historical case studies of energy technology innovation. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A and Wilson C (2014) Policies for energy technology innovation. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Meyer D, Mytelka L, Press R, Dall'Oglio EL, et al. (2014) Brazilian ethanol: Unpacking a success story of energy technology innovation. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Wilson C and Grubler A (2014) The Energy Technology Innovation System. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Wilson C and Grubler A (2014) Energy technology innovation. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Wilson C and Grubler A (2014) Lessons learnt from the Energy Technology Innovation System. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Wilson C and Grubler A (2014) A comparative analysis of annual market investments in energy supply and end-use technologies. In: Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9781107023222

Grubler A (2013) Interview with Arnulf Grubler. [[Carbon Management]]; 4(4):359-363 (August 2013)

McCollum DL, Krey V, Riahi K, Kolp P, et al. (2013) Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges. Climatic Change, 119 (2). pp. 479-494.

Wilson C, Grubler A, Bauer N, Krey V, et al. (2013) Future capacity growth of energy technologies: Are scenarios consistent with historical evidence? Climatic Change, 118 (2). pp. 381-395.

Gallagher KS, Grubler A, Kuhl L, Nemet GF, et al. (2012) The Energy Technology Innovation System. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37. pp. 137-162.

Grubler A (2012) Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales. Energy Policy, 50. pp. 8-16.

Wilson C, Grubler A, Gallagher KS, and Nemet GF (2012) Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection. Nature Climate Change, 2 (11). pp. 780-788.

Grubler A, Aguayo F, Gallagher KS, Hekkert M, et al. (2012) Chapter 24: Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS). In: Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge University Press and IIASA, pp.1665-1744 (October 2012).

Grubler A, Bai X, Büttner T, Dhakal S, et al. (2012) Chapter 18: Urban energy systems. In: Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge University Press and IIASA, pp.1307-1400 (October 2012).

Grubler A, Johansson TB, Muncada L, Nakicenovic N, et al. (2012) Chapter 1: Energy primer. In: Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge University Press and IIASA, pp.99-150 (October 2012).

Riahi K, Dentener F, Gielen D, Grubler A, et al. (2012) Chapter 17: Energy pathways for sustainable development. In: Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge University Press and IIASA, pp.1203-1306 (October 2012).

Grubler A and Fisk D (2012) Energizing Sustainable Cities: Assessing Urban Energy. Earthscan/Routledge. ISBN 9781849714389

Pachauri S, Grubler A, Krey V, and Riahi K (2012) Der Nutzen liegt auf der Hand. [[Weltnachrichten]] Nr.3/2012, Austrian Development Agency (ADA), p.11

Grubler A and Buettner T (2012) Urbanization past and future. In: Energizing Sustainable Cities. Taylor & Francis, pp. 17-30. ISBN 978-020311012-6

Grubler A and Schulz N (2012) Urban energy use. In: Energizing Sustainable Cities. Taylor & Francis, pp. 57-70. ISBN 978-020311012-6

Schulz N, Grubler A, and Ichinose T (2012) Energy demand and air pollution densities, including heat island effects. In: Energizing Sustainable Cities. Taylor & Francis, pp. 95-107. ISBN 978-020311012-6

Wilson C and Grubler A (2011) A Comparative Analysis of Annual Market Investments in Energy Supply and End-use Technologies. IIASA Interim Report . IR-11-032, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Wilson C and Grubler A (2011) Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies. Natural Resources Forum, 35 (3). pp. 165-184.

Wilson C and Grubler A (2011) Lessons from the History of Technology and Global Change for the Emerging Clean Technology Cluster. IIASA Interim Report . IR-11-001, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Riahi K (2010) Do governments have the right mix in their energy R&D portfolios? Carbon Management, 1 (1). pp. 79-87.

Grubler A (2010) The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing. Energy Policy, 38 (9). pp. 5174-5188.

Manning MR, Edmonds J, Emori S, Grubler A, et al. (2010) Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios. Nature Geoscience, 3 (6). pp. 376-377.

Grubler A and Pachauri S (2009) Problems with burden-sharing proposal among one billion high emitters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106 (43). E122-E123.

Grubler A (2009) An Assessment of the Costs of the French Nuclear PWR Program 1970-2000. IIASA Interim Report . IR-09-036, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Pachauri S (2009) Problems with burden-sharing proposal among one billion high emitters (Letters). [[PNAS]], 106(43):E122-E123 (27 October 2009)

Krey V, Canadell JG, Nakicenovic N, Abe Y, et al. (2009) Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or climate threat? Environmental Research Letters, 4 (3). no.034007.

Grubler A (2009) Determinants of the future of fossil extractive industries. Berg- und Hüttenmännische Monatshefte (BHM), 154 (6). pp. 243-248.

Ma T, Grubler A, and Nakamori Y (2009) Modeling technology adoptions for sustainable development under increasing returns, uncertainty, and heterogeneous agents. European Journal of Operational Research, 195 (1). pp. 296-306.

Ma T, Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Arthur WB (2008) Technologies as agents of change: A simulation model of the evolving complexity of the global energy system. IIASA Interim Report . IR-08-021, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (2008) Energy transitions. In: The Encyclopedia of Earth. Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment.

Ma T and Grubler A (2008) The evolution of technological complexity: An agent-based simulation model of the global energy system. In: Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations under Uncertainty. Routledge, London, UK, pp. 205-244. ISBN 978-0-415-46376-8

Grubler A, O'Neill BC, Riahi K, Chirkov V, et al. (2007) Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74 (7). pp. 980-1029.

Grubler A (2007) An Historical Perspective on Global Energy Transitions. In: Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Oak Ridge, Tennessee, pp. 53-60.

Dearing JA, Graumlich LJ, and Grubler A (2007) Integrating socioenvironmental interactions over centennial timescales - Needs and issues. In: Sustainability or Collapse. MIT Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0-262-03366-6

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Wagner F, et al. (2007) Integrated assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation: Introduction and overview. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74 (7). pp. 873-886.

Halsnaes K, Shukla PR, Ahuja D, Akumu G, et al. (2007) Framing issues (Chapter 2). In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of WG III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Riahi K, Grubler A, and Nakicenovic N (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74 (7). pp. 887-935.

Grubler A (2006) Doing More with Less - Improving the Environment through Green Engineering. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RP-06-005. Reprinted from Environment, 48(2): 22-37 [March 2006]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A, O'Neill BC, and van Vuuren DP (2006) Avoiding hazards of best-guess climate scenarios. Nature, 440 (7085).

Riahi K, Grubler A, and Nakicenovic N (2006) IIASA Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI) Long-term Emissions and Climate Stabilization Scenarios. IIASA Interim Report . IR-06-018, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (2006) Doing more with less: Improving the environment through green engineering. Environment, 48 (2). pp. 22-37.

O'Neill B, Crutzen P, Grubler A, Duong MH, et al. (2006) Learning and climate change. Climate Policy, 6 (5). pp. 585-589.

Riahi K, Kolp P, and Grubler A (2005) National Scenarios of Economic Activity (GDP) - A Downscaling Analysis based on SRES. IIASA Interim Report . IR 05-063, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (2005) Energy transitions. In: Dictionary of Energy. Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands, p. 146. ISBN 0-080-44578-0

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Chirkov V, and Kolp P (2005) Synthetic Fuel Technology Adoption under Climatic Constraints in the Asian Region. Research study conducted for the Environmental Research Center (ERC), Tsukuba, Japan; IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria [2005]

Grubler A (2004) Technology and Global Change. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing. ISBN 7-302-05893-8

Grubler A (2004) Technology and Global Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 9-780-52154332-3

Grubler A (2004) Transitions in Energy Use. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RP-04-005. Reprinted from Encyclopedia of Energy, 6:163-177 [2004]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (2004) Transitions in energy use. In: Encyclopedia of Energy. Elsevier Science, 6:163-177 [2004].

Grubler A, Chirkov V, Nakicenovic N, and Slentoe E (2004) Long-Term Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Asian Region. IIASA Policy Report. XQ-04-823, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. (2004) Emissions scenarios: A final response. Energy and Environment, 15 (1). pp. 11-24.

Grubler A (2003) Technology, global change and industrial ecology. In: Perspectives on Industrial Ecology. Greenleaf Publishing Ltd, Sheffield. ISBN 1-1874719-462

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Gaffin S, Jung TT, et al. (2003) IPCC SRES revisited: A response. Energy & Environment, 14 (2-3).

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Nordhaus WD (2002) Technological Change and the Environment. Resources for the Future, Washington. ISBN 9781891853463

Grubler A (2002) Trends in Global Emissions: Carbon, Sulfur, and Nitrogen. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-02-004. Reprinted from Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, 3:35-53 [2002]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (2001) Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate. Nature, 412 (6842).

Kates RW, Clark WC, Corell R, Grubler A, et al. (2001) Sustainability science. Science, 292 (5517). pp. 641-642.

Grubler A (2001) Trends in global emissions: Carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen. In: Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change. Vol. 3: Causes and Consequences of Global Environmental Change, John Wiley & Sons Inc.. ISBN 0471-97796-9

Hourcade JC, Ha-Duong M, Grubler A, and Tol RSJ (2001) INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies. Integrated Assessment, 2 (1). pp. 31-35.

Kates RW, Clark WC, Corell R, Hall JM, et al. (2001) Sustainability Science. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-01-007. Reprinted from Science, 292 (5517):641-642 [2001], IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Prather M, Ehhalt D, Dentener F, Derwent R, et al. (2001) Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report. Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC. ISBN 0521-01495-6

Schlesinger ME, Malyshev S, Rozanov EV, Yang F, et al. (2000) Geographical Distributions of Temperature Change for Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65 (2). pp. 167-193.

Nakicenovic N, Gritsevskii A, Grubler A, and Riahi K (2000) Global Natural Gas Perspectives. International Gas Union (IGU), Office of the Secretary General, Denmark and IIASA, Austria (October 2000)

Grubler A (2000) Managing the global environment. Environmental Science & Technology.

Grubler A (2000) Managing the Global Environment. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-00-012. Reprinted from Environmental Science and Technology, 34(7) [April 1, 2000]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (2000) Resources and society. Berg- und Hüttenmännische Monatshefte (BHM), 10. pp. 386-394.

Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Grubler A, Riahi K, et al. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-80493-0

Nakicenovic N, Davidson O, Davis G, and Grubler A (2000) Summary for policy makers. In: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. ISBN 92-9169-113-5

Nakicenovic N and Grubler A (2000) Energy and the Protection of the Atmosphere. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-00-018. Reprinted from International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 13(1-3):4-57 [2000]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Nakicenovic N and Grubler A (2000) Energy and the protection of the atmosphere. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 13 (1). pp. 4-57.

Plutzar C, Grubler A, Stojanovic V, Riedl L, et al. (2000) A GIS-based Approach for Modeling the Spatial and Temporal Development of Night-time Lights. In: Angewandte Geographische Informationsverarbeitung XII, Beiträge zum AGIT-Symposium Salzburg 2000. Wichmann, Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 389-394. ISBN 3-87907-349-X

Klaassen G, Grubler A, and Schrattenholzer L (1999) Towards New Energy Infrastructures in Eurasia: A Background Paper. IIASA Interim Report . IR-99-017, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Victor DG (1999) Modeling technological change: Implications for the global environment. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 24. pp. 545-569.

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Victor DG (1999) Dynamics of energy technologies and global change. Energy Policy, 27 (5). pp. 247-280.

Grubler A (1999) Global energy perspectives: 2050 and beyond. In: ENERGY - The Next Fifty Years. OECD Publication, Paris. ISBN 92-64-17016-2

Grubler A (1999) Long-Term Energy Futures: The Critical Role of Technology. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-00-002. Reprinted from Revue de l'Energie, 508:373-384 [1999]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1999) Long-term energy futures: The critical role of technology. Revue de l'Energie, 508. pp. 373-384.

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Victor DG (1999) Dynamics of Energy Technologies and Global Change. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-99-007. Reprinted from Energy Policy, 27:247-280, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Victor DG (1999) Modeling Technological Change: Implications for the Global Environment. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-00-003. Reprinted from Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 24:545-69 [1999]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1998) A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3 (2). pp. 383-418.

Grubler A and Messner S (1998) Technological change and the timing of mitigation measures. Energy Economics, 20 (5). pp. 495-512.

Grubler A (1998) From well or mine to the consumer: Long-term energy perspectives. Berg- und Hüttenmännische Monatshefte (BHM), 12. pp. 449-456.

Grubler A (1998) Globale Energieperspektiven. Gas, Wasser, Abwasser, 6 (98). pp. 462-470.

Grubler A (1998) A Review of Global and Regional Sulfur Emission Scenarios. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-99-005. Reprinted from Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2-4):383-418, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1998) Technology and Global Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. ISBN 0-521-59109-0

Grubler A and Messner S (1998) Technological Change and the Timing of Mitigation Measures. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-99-001. Reprinted from Energy Economics, 20(5,6):495-512 [December 1998]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, and McDonald A (1998) Global Energy Perspectives. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Grubler A and Gritsevskii A (1997) A Model of Endogenous Technological Change Through Uncertain Returns on Learning (R&D and Investments). In: International Workshop on Induced Technical Change and the Environment, 26-27 June 1997, Laxenburg, Austria.

Grubler A and Messner S (1996) Technological uncertainty. In: Climate Change: Integrating Science, Economics, and Policy. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 295-314.

Grubler A (1996) Perspectives energetiques globales a l'horizon 2050. La Lettre du Conseil Francais de l'Energie.

Foray D and Grubler A (1996) Introduction: Technology and the Environment. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53 (1). pp. 1-2.

Foray D and Grubler A (1996) Technology and the Environment: An Overview. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-97-005. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1):3-13 [September 1996]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Foray D and Grubler A (1996) Technology and the environment: An overview. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53 (1). pp. 3-13.

Grubler A (1996) Time for a Change: On the Patterns of Diffusion of Innovation. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-97-003. Reprinted from Daedelus, 125(3):19-42 [1996]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1996) Time for a change: On the patterns of diffusion of innovation. Daedalus, 125 (3). pp. 19-42.

Grubler A, Jefferson M, and Nakicenovic N (1996) Global Energy Perspectives: A Summary of the Joint Study by IIASA and World Energy Council. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-96-010. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 51(3):237-264 [1996]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A, Jefferson M, and Nakicenovic N (1996) Global energy perspectives: A summary of the joint study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 51 (3). pp. 237-264.

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1996) Decarbonizing the Global Energy System. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-97-006. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1):97-110 [September 1996]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1996) Decarbonizing the global energy system. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53 (1). pp. 97-110.

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1996) Global energy perspectives 2050 [Globale Energieperspektiven 2050]. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, 46 (5). pp. 304-312.

Michaelis L, Bleviss D, Orfeuil J-P, Pischinger R, et al. (1996) Mitigation options in the transportation sector. In: Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-56431-X

Nakicenovic N and Grubler A (1996) Energy and the Protection of the Atmosphere. IIASA Policy Report. XQ-96-823, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Ishitani H, Johansson TB, et al. (1996) Energy Primer. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-97-001. Reprinted from Climate Change 1995; International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 75-92 [1996], IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Ishitani H, Johansson TB, et al. (1996) Energy primer. In: Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-56431-X

Grubler A, Jefferson M, and Nakicenovic N (1995) A Summary of the Joint IIASA and WEC Study on Long-Term Energy Perspectives. IIASA Working Paper. WP-95-102, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1995) Time for a Change: Rates of Diffusion of Ideas, Technologies, and Social Behaviors. IIASA Working Paper. WP-95-082, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1995) Industrialization as a Historical Phenomenon. IIASA Working Paper. WP-95-029, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Alcamo J, Bouwman A, Edmonds J, Grubler A, et al. (1995) An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-95-010. Reprinted from Climate Change 1994. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC 1992 IS92 Emission Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 247-304, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Alcamo J, Bouwman A, Edmonds J, Grubler A, et al. (1995) An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. In: Climate Change 1994. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC 1992 IS92 Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 247-304. ISBN 0-521-55055-6

Ausubel JH and Grubler A (1995) Working Less and Living Longer: Long-term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-96-004. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 50(3):195-213, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Ausubel JH and Grubler A (1995) Working less and living longer: Long-term trends in working time and time budgets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 50 (3). pp. 195-213.

Büttner T and Grubler A (1995) The Birth of a "Green" Generation? Generational Dynamics of Resource Consumption Patterns. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-96-003. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 50:113-134 [1995], IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Büttner T and Grubler A (1995) The birth of a "green generation"? Generational dynamics of resource consumption patterns. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 50 (2). pp. 113-134.

Grubler A, Jefferson M, McDonald A, Messner S, et al. (1995) Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond. IIASA Policy Report. XQ-95-802, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Kirsch D (1995) Social behavior: Limiting global change or limits for mitigation? In: Global Change, Proceedings of the First Demetra Meeting. European Commission, Brussels, Belgium, pp. 392-409. ISBN 92-826-7757-5

Grubler A (1994) A Comparison of Global and Regional Energy Emission Scenarios. IIASA Working Paper. WP-94-132, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Büttner T and Grubler A (1994) The Birth of a "Green" Generation? Generational Dynamics of Resource Consumption Patterns. IIASA Working Paper. WP-94-079, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Ausubel JH and Grubler A (1994) Working Less and Living Longer: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets. IIASA Working Paper. WP-94-099, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1994) International Burden Sharing in Greenhouse Gas Reduction. IIASA Research Report. RR-94-009, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1994) Das Paradoxon der wissenschaftlich-technischen Entwicklung. In: Spannungsfeld Umwelt und Entwicklung. Jugend & Volk, Vienna, Austria, pp. 78-92. ISBN 3-85191-020-6

Grubler A (1994) Energiestrategien und CO2-Minderung. In: Gesellschaftliche Aspekte von Klimaänderungen. Berichte aus der ökologischen Forschung, 13 . Forschungszentrum Jülich, Programmgruppe Technologiefolgenforschung, Jülich, Germany, pp. 36-71. ISBN 978-3-89336-131-1

Grubler A (1994) Energy strategies and CO2 mitigation. In: Social Aspects of Climate Change. Konferenzen des Forschungszentrums Juelich, Juelich.

Grubler A (1994) Global energy strategies. In: Handbuch der Umwelttechnik 1994. Trend Commerz Gesellschaft mbH, Linz.

Grubler A (1994) Industrialization as a Historical Phenomenon. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-95-009. Reprinted from Industrial Ecology and Global Change, R. Socolow, C. Andrews, F. Berkhout, and V. Thomas (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 43-68, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1994) Industrialization as a historical phenomenon. In: Industrial Ecology and Global Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 43-68.

Grubler A (1994) Technology and global change: Land-use, past and present. In: Changes in Land Use and Land Cover: A Global Perspective. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 287-328.

Grubler A (1994) The transportation sector: Growing demand and emissions. Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 3 (2).

Grubler A, Hoell O, Lichem W, and Rakos C (1994) Environment and Development. J&V.

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Schaefer A (1993) Summary of IPCC/EIS-IIASA International Workshop on Energy-Related Greenhouse Gases Reduction and Removal. 1-2 October 1992. IIASA Status Report. SR-93-001, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1993) Energy and environment: Post UNCED. In: Road from Rio : environment and development policy issues in Asia. Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, India, pp. 104-112. ISBN 81-85419-02-7

Grubler A (1993) Energy for the 21st century: Towards improved efficiency and environmental compatibility. In: Energy Efficiency 2000, 8-10 March 1993, Lausanne, Switzerland.

Grubler A (1993) The Transportation Sector: Growing Demand and Emissions. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-94-005. Reprinted from Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 3(2):179-199, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1993) The Transportation Sector: Growing Demand and Emissions. In: Seminar on Population and Natural Resources, 30 September - 1 October 1993, TERI, New Delhi, India.

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Inaba A, Messner S, et al. (1993) Long-Term Strategies for Mitigating Global Warming. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-93-011. Reprinted from Energy, 18(15):401-609, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Inaba A, Messner S, et al. (1993) Long-term strategies for mitigating global warming. Energy, 18 (5). pp. 401-609.

Grubler A (1992) Technology and Global Change: Land Use, Past and Present. IIASA Working Paper. WP-92-002, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, and Schaefer A (1992) Dynamics of Transport and Energy Systems. History of Development and a Scenario for the Future. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-93-019. Reprinted from Energy and Life, Proceedings of the 15th WEC Congress, Madrid, 20-25 September 1992, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1991) Evolution of Transport Systems: Past and Future. IIASA Research Report. RR-91-008, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Foray D and Grubler A (1991) Morphological Analysis, Diffusion, and Patterns of Technological Evolution: Ferrous Casting in France and the FRG. In: Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 407-431. ISBN 978-3-662-02702-8

Foray D and Grubler A (1991) Towards a taxonomy of technological change. IIASA Report. , IIASA, Laxenburg Austria

Grubler A (1991) Diffusion: Long-term patterns and discontinuities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 39 (1-2). pp. 159-180.

Grubler A (1991) Diffusion: Long-term patterns and discontinuities. In: International Conference on Diffusion Technologies and Social Behaviour: Theories, Case Studies and Policy Applications, 14-16 June 1989, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

Grubler A (1991) Energy in the 21st Century: From Resource to Environmental and Lifestyle Constraints. Entropie: revue scientifique et technique de thermodynamique, 164/65. pp. 29-33.

Grubler A (1991) Introduction to Diffusion Theory. In: Computer Integrated Manufacturing, Volume 3. Models, Case Studies and Forecasts of Diffusion. Chapman and Hall, London, UK, pp. 3-52.

Grubler A and Fujii Y (1991) Inter-generational and Spatial Equity Issues of Carbon Accounts. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-92-006. Reprinted from Energy, 16 (11/12):1397-1416, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Fujii Y (1991) Inter-generational and spatial equity issues of carbon accounts. Energy, 16 (11-12). pp. 1397-1416.

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1991) Energy and the environment in the 21st century. IIASA Report. , IIASA, Laxenburg Austria

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1991) Long Waves, Technology Diffusion, and Substitution. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-91-017. Reprinted from Review, XIV(2):313-342 [Spring 1991]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1991) Long waves, technology diffusion, and substitution. Review (Fernand Braudel Center), 14 (2). pp. 313-343.

Nakicenovic N and Grubler A (1991) Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg. ISBN 3-540-53846-1

Foray D and Grubler A (1990) Morphological analysis, diffusion and lockout of technologies: Ferrous casting in France and the FRG. Research Policy, 19 (6). pp. 535-550.

Astakhov A, Grubler A, and Mookhin A (1990) Technology Diffusion in the Coal-Mining Industry of the USSR - An Interim Assessment. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-91-004. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 38(3):223-256, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Foray D and Grubler A (1990) Morphological Analysis, Diffusion and Lock-out of Technologies: Ferrous Casting in France and the FRG. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-91-001. Reprinted from Research Policy, 19(6) [December 1990]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1990) The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport. Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg. ISBN 3-7908-0479-7

Grubler A (1990) Technology Diffusion in a Long-Wave Context: The Case of the Steel and Coal Industries (Chapter 8). In: Life Cycles and Long Waves. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 340 . Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, pp. 117-146. ISBN 3-540-52473-8

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1990) Economic Map of Europe: Transport, Communication and Energy Infrastructures in a Wider Europe (Annex: European Spatial and Temporal Dynamics - Past and a Scenario for the Future). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

Grubler A and Nowotny H (1990) Towards the Fifth Kondratiev Upswing: Elements of an Emerging New Growth Phase and Possible Development Trajectories. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-90-007. Reprinted from International Journal of Technology Management, 5(4) [1990]., IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A and Nowotny H (1990) Towards the fifth Kondratiev upswing: elements of an emerging new growth phase and possible development trajectories. International Journal of Technology Management, 5 (4). pp. 431-471.

Grubler Arnulf (1990) Perspectives à longue échéance de l'approvisionnement énergétique et le rôle potentiel du gaz naturel. Gaz - Eaux - Eaux usées, 70 (4). pp. 259-272.

Nakicenovic N and Grubler A (1990) Development of energy and transport systems. In: Economics, Modelling, Planning and Management of Energy. World Scientific Publishing, Singapore, pp. 80-115. ISBN 9-971-50949-0

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Bodda L, and Gilli PV (1990) Technological Progress, Structural Change and Efficient Energy Use: Trends Worldwide and in Austria. Schriftenreihe des Verbundkonzerns (6). Verbundgesellschaft, Vienna, Austria.

Nakicenovic N, Grubler A, Bodda L, and Gilli PV (1989) Technological Progress, Structural Change and Efficient Energy Use: Trends Worldwide and in Austria. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Astakhov A, Grubler A, and Mookhin A (1989) Technology Diffusion in the Coal Mining Industry of the USSR: An Interim Assessment. IIASA Working Paper. WP-89-046, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1989) Langfristaussichten der Energieversorgung und die potentielle Rolle von Erdgas. In: 40. Sitzung der Studiengruppe Energieperspektiven, 18 May 1989, Baden, Austria.

Ausubel JH, Grubler A, and Nakicenovic N (1988) Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). RR-88-007. Reprinted from Climatic Change, 12 (3). pp. 245-263, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Ausubel JH, Grubler A, and Nakicenovic N (1988) Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy. Climatic Change, 12 (3). pp. 245-263.

Grubler A (1988) Der Kampf ums Dasein: Eine Analyse der langfristigen Entwicklungvon Infrastruktur und Transporttechnologien. Schweizer Ingenieur und Architekt, 108 (8). pp. 197-207.

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1988) The dynamic evolution of methane technologies. In: The Methane Age. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. ISBN 978-90-277-2745-9

Posch M, Grubler A, and Nakicenovic N (1988) Methods of Estimating S-Shaped Growth Functions: Algorithms and Computer Programs. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, mimeo.

Grubler A and Nakicenovic N (1987) The Dynamic Evolution of Methane Technologies. IIASA Working Paper. WP-87-002, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1987) Aufstieg und Fall von Infrastrukturen: Eine Analyse der langfristigen Entwicklung von Verkehrsinfrastruktur und Transporttechnologien. Der öffentliche Sektor - Forschungsmemoranden, 13 (3/4). pp. 52-83.

Grubler A (1987) Vom Erdöl- zum Methanzeitalter: Betrachtungen zur langfristigen Technologieentwicklung und der potentiellen Rolle von Erdgas im 21. Jahrhundert. In: Jahresversammlung der USOGAS und des Verbandes der Schweizerischen Gasindustrie, 20 May 1987, Zug, Switzerland.

Grubler A and Amann M (1986) Grenzkosten der Reduktion von SO2-Emissionen in Österreich. Wirtschaftspolitische Blaetter, 33 (4). pp. 467-484.

Grubler A, Katsonis F, Mazzoni B, and Wooding S (1984) A Proposal for an Environmental Decision Support System at the Regional Level: Concepts, Support Methodology, Tools and their Terminology. IIASA Collaborative Paper. CP-84-038, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Astakhov A and Grubler A (1984) Resource Requirements and Economics of the Coal-Mining Process: A Comparative Analysis of Mines in Selected Countries. IIASA Research Report. RR-84-013, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grenon M and Grubler A (1983) Energy and Mineral Resources Data Bases. IIASA Collaborative Paper. CP-83-002, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A, Hoffman R, and McInnis B (1982) Process Information Systems: A Synthesis of Two Independent Approaches. IIASA Collaborative Paper. CP-82-024, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Grubler A (1980) Resource Requirements for Industrial Processes: A WELMM Comparison of Energy Chains. IIASA Working Paper. WP-80-050, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria