Arnulf Grubler

Arnulf Grubler (Grübler) first joined IIASA in 1976 to work with the Energy Systems Program and currently works as a Senior Research Scholar and Acting Program Director of the Transitions to New Technologies Program. He also holds a part-time appointment as Professor in the Field of Energy and Technology at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, USA. His teaching and research focuses on the long-term history and future of technology and the environment with emphasis on energy, transport, and communication systems.

Prof. Grubler received his master's degree in engineering from the Technical University of Vienna, where he was also awarded his PhD. He completed his Habilitation (venia legendi in systems science of environment and technology) at the Mining University Leoben, Austria. He is also foreign member elect of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences.

Prof. Grubler has been serving as Lead and Contributing Author and as Review Editor for the Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize). He was also Convening Lead and Coordinating Author for three knowledge modules of the Global Energy Assessment completed in 2012. He currently serves on the editorial boards of Carbon Management and Journal of Industrial Ecology.

He has published widely as author, coauthor, or editor of twelve books, three special journal issues, over 100 peer reviewed articles and book chapters, and over 30 additional professional papers in the domains of (modeling of) technological change and diffusion, long wave theory, historical transitions in energy and transport systems, long-term future scenarios, energy technology innovation systems and policy, climate change, and resource economics.

Examples of his latest publications include the book Energizing Sustainable Cities: Assessing Urban Energy, (edited together with David Fisk), Earthscan, 2013; and two major review articles on energy technology innovations systems and innovation portfolio biases: "The Energy Technology Innovation System", Annual Review of Environment and Resources 2012, 37:137-162 (with K. Sims Gallagher, L. Kuhl, G. Nemet, and C. Wilson); and "Marginalization of End-use Technologies in Energy Innovation for Climate Protection". Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, 26 October 2012:780-788.

Last update: 02-JAN-2014

Rao,N.D. Riahi,K. Grubler,A. (2014)

Climate impacts of poverty eradication ... More

Grubler,A. Wilson,C. (2014)

Policies for energy technology innovation ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2014)

Lessons learnt from the Energy Technology Innovation System ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2014)

A comparative analysis of annual market investments in energy supply and end-use technologies ... More

Grubler,A. Diaz Anadon,L. Gallagher,K.S. Kempener,R. O'Rourke,A. Wilson,C. (2014)

Global R&D, market formation, and diffusion investments in energy technology innovation ... More

Meyer,D. Mytelka,L. Press,R. Dall'Oglio,E.L. Teixeira de Sousa Jr.,P. Grubler,A. (2014)

Brazilian ethanol: Unpacking a success story of energy technology innovation ... More

Grubler,A. (2014)

The French Pressurised Water Reactor Programme ... More

Grubler,A. Nemet,G.F. (2014)

Sources and consequences of knowledge depreciation ... More

Grubler,A. Fuss,S. (2014)

Technology portfolios: Modelling technological uncertainty and innovation risks ... More

Grubler,A. (2014)

Grand designs: Historical patterns and future scenarios of energy technological change ... More

Grubler,A. Wilson,C. (2014)

Historical case studies of energy technology innovation ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2014)

The Energy Technology Innovation System ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2014)

Energy technology innovation ... More

Grubler,A. Wilson,C. (2014)

Energy Technology Innovation: Learning from Historical Successes and Failures ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Pachauri,S. Rogner,H.-H. Smith,K.R. (2014)

Energy Primer ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. Bauer,N. Krey,V. Riahi,K. (2013)

Future capacity growth of energy technologies: Are scenarios consistent with historical evidence? ... More

McCollum,D.L. Krey,V. Riahi,K. Kolp,P. Grubler,A. Makowski,M. Nakicenovic,N. (2013)

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges ... More

Grubler,A. (2013)

Interview with Arnulf Grubler ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. Gallagher,K.S. Nemet,G.F. (2012)

Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection ... More

Gallagher,K.S. Grubler,A. Kuhl,L. Nemet,G. Wilson,C. (2012)

The Energy Technology Innovation System ... More

Grubler,A. (2012)

Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales ... More

Riahi,K. Dentener,F. Gielen,D. Grubler,A. Jewell,J. Klimont,Z. Krey,V. McCollum,D.L. Pachauri,S. Rao,S. van Ruijven,B. van Vuuren,D.P. Wilson,C. (2012)

Chapter 17: Energy pathways for sustainable development ... More

Grubler,A. Aguayo,F. Gallagher,K.S. Hekkert,M. Jiang,K. Mytelka,L. Neij,L. Nemet,G. Wilson,C. (2012)

Chapter 24: Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS) ... More

Grubler,A. Bai,X. Buettner,T. Dhakal,S. Fisk,D.J. Ichinose,T. Keirstead,J.E. Sammmer,G. Satterthwaite,D. Schulz,N.B. Shah,N. Steinberger,J. Weisz,H. (2012)

Chapter 18: Urban energy systems ... More

Grubler,A. Johansson,T.B. Muncada,L. Nakicenovic,N. Pachauri,S. Riahi,K. Rogner,H.-H. Strupeit,L. (2012)

Chapter 1: Energy primer ... More

Grubler,A. Fisk,D. (2012)

Energizing Sustainable Cities: Assessing Urban Energy ... More

Pachauri,S. Grubler,A. Krey,V. Riahi,K. (2012)

Der Nutzen liegt auf der Hand ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2011)

Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2011)

A Comparative Analysis of Annual Market Investments in Energy Supply and End-use Technologies ... More

Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2011)

Lessons from the History of Technology and Global Change for the Emerging Clean Technology Cluster ... More

Manning,M.R. Edmonds,J. Emori,S. Grubler,A. Hibbard,K. Joos,F. Kainuma,M. Keeling,R.F. Kram,T. Manning,A.C. Meinshausen,M. Moss,R. Nakicenovic,N. Riahi,K. Rose,S.K. Smith,S.J. Swart,R. van Vuuren,D.P. (2010)

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios ... More

Grubler,A. Riahi,K. (2010)

Do governments have the right mix in their energy R&D portfolios? ... More

Grubler,A. (2010)

The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing ... More

Grubler,A. (2009)

Determinants of the future of fossil extractive industries ... More

Krey,V. Canadell,J.G. Nakicenovic,N. Abe,Y. Andruleit,H. Archer,D. Grubler,A. Hamilton,N.T.M. Johnson,A. Kostov,V. Lamarque,J.-F. Langhorne,N. Nisbet,E.G. O'Neill,B.C. Riahi,K. Riedel,M. Wang,W. Yakushev,V. (2009)

Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or climate threat? ... More

Ma,T. Grubler,A. Nakamori,Y. (2009)

Modeling technology adoptions for sustainable development under increasing returns, uncertainty, and heterogeneous agents ... More

Grubler,A. Pachauri,S. (2009)

Problems with burden-sharing proposal among one billion high emitters (Letters) ... More

Grubler,A. (2009)

An Assessment of the Costs of the French Nuclear PWR Program 1970-2000 ... More

Grubler,A. (2008)

Energy transitions ... More

Ma,T. Grubler,A. (2008)

The evolution of technological complexity: An agent-based simulation model of the global energy system ... More

Ma,T. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Arthur,W.B. (2008)

Technologies as agents of change: A simulation model of the evolving complexity of the global energy system ... More

Riahi,K. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (2007)

Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization ... More

Grubler,A. O'Neill,B.C. Riahi,K. Chirkov,V. Goujon,A. Kolp,P. Prommer,I. Scherbov,S. Slentoe,E. (2007)

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Riahi,K. Wagner,F. Fischer,G. Keppo,I. Obersteiner,M. O'Neill,B.C. Rao,S. Tubiello,F.N. (2007)

Integrated assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation: Introduction and overview ... More

Halsnaes,K. Shukla,P.R. Ahuja,D. Akumu,G. Beale,R. Edmonds,J. Gollier,C. Grubler,A. (2007)

Framing issues (Chapter 2) ... More

Dearing,J.A. Graumlich,L.J. Grubler,A. (2007)

Integrating socioenvironmental interactions over centennial timescales - Needs and issues ... More

Grubler,A. O'Neill,B.C. van Vuuren,D.P. (2006)

Avoiding hazards of best-guess climate scenarios ... More

Grubler,A. (2006)

Doing more with less: Improving the environment through green engineering ... More

Riahi,K. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (2006)

IIASA Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI) Long-term Emissions and Climate Stabilization Scenarios ... More

Grubler,A. (2006)

Doing More with Less - Improving the Environment through Green Engineering ... More

Grubler,A. (2005)

Energy transitions ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Chirkov,V. Kolp,P. (2005)

Synthetic Fuel Technology Adoption under Climatic Constraints in the Asian Region ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Alcamo,J. Davis,G. Fenhann,J. Hare,B. Mori,S. Pepper,B. Pitcher,H. Riahi,K. Rogner,H.-H. La Rovere,E.L. Sankovski,A. Schlesinger,M. Shukla,P.R. Swart,R. Victor,N. Jung,T.Y. (2004)

Emissions scenarios: A final response ... More

Grubler,A. (2004)

Transitions in energy use ... More

Grubler,A. (2004)

Technology and Global Change ... More

Grubler,A. (2004)

Technology and Global Change ... More

Grubler,A. Chirkov,V. Nakicenovic,N. Slentoe,E. (2004)

Long-Term Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Asian Region ... More

Grubler,A. (2004)

Transitions in Energy Use ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Gaffin,S. Jung,T.T. Kram,T. Morita,T. Pitcher,H. Riahi,K. Schlesinger,M. Shukla,P.R. van Vuuren,D.P. Davis,G. Michaelis,L. Swart,R. Victor,N. (2003)

IPCC SRES revisited: A response ... More

O'Neill,B.C. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Obersteiner,M. Riahi,K. Schrattenholzer,L. Toth,F.L. (2003)

Planning for future energy resources ... More

Grubler,A. (2003)

Technology, global change and industrial ecology ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Nordhaus,W.D. (2002)

Technological Change and the Environment ... More

Grubler,A. (2002)

Trends in Global Emissions: Carbon, Sulfur, and Nitrogen ... More

Hourcade,J.C. Ha-Duong,M. Grubler,A. Tol,R.S.J. (2001)

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies ... More

Kates,R.W. Clark,W.C. Corell,R. Grubler,A. Hall,J.M. (2001)

Sustainability science ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (2001)

Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate ... More

Prather,M. Ehhalt,D. Dentener,F. Derwent,R. Grubler,A. (2001)

Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases ... More

Grubler,A. (2001)

Trends in global emissions: Carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen ... More

Kates,R.W. Clark,W.C. Corell,R. Hall,J.M. Jaeger,C.C. Lowe,I. McCarthy,J.J. Schellnhuber,H.J. Bolin,B. Dickson,N.M. Faucheux,S. Gallopin,G.C. Grubler,A. Huntley,B. Jaeger,J. Jodha,N.S. Kasperson,R.E. Mabogunje,A. Matson,P. Mooney,H. Moore III,B. O'Riordan,T. Svedin,U. (2001)

Sustainability Science ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (2000)

Energy and the protection of the atmosphere ... More

Grubler,A. (2000)

Resources and society ... More

Grubler,A. (2000)

Managing the global environment ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Davidson,O. Davis,G. Grubler,A. (2000)

Summary for policy makers ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Alcamo,J. Grubler,A. Riahi,K. Roehrl,R.A. Rogner,H.-H. Victor,N. (2000)

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Gritsevskii,A. Grubler,A. Riahi,K. (2000)

Global Natural Gas Perspectives ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (2000)

Energy and the Protection of the Atmosphere ... More

Grubler,A. (2000)

Managing the Global Environment ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)

Modeling technological change: Implications for the global environment ... More

Grubler,A. (1999)

Long-term energy futures: The critical role of technology ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)

Dynamics of energy technologies and global change ... More

Grubler,A. (1999)

Global energy perspectives: 2050 and beyond ... More

Klaassen,G. Grubler,A. Schrattenholzer,L. (1999)

Towards New Energy Infrastructures in Eurasia: A Background Paper ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)

Modeling Technological Change: Implications for the Global Environment ... More

Grubler,A. (1999)

Long-Term Energy Futures: The Critical Role of Technology ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)

Dynamics of Energy Technologies and Global Change ... More

Grubler,A. (1998)

Globale Energieperspektiven ... More

Grubler,A. (1998)

From well or mine to the consumer: Long-term energy perspectives ... More

Grubler,A. Messner,S. (1998)

Technological change and the timing of mitigation measures ... More

Grubler,A. (1998)

A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. McDonald,A. (1998)

Global Energy Perspectives ... More

Grubler,A. (1998)

Technology and Global Change ... More

Grubler,A. (1998)

A Review of Global and Regional Sulfur Emission Scenarios ... More

Grubler,A. Messner,S. (1998)

Technological Change and the Timing of Mitigation Measures ... More

Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)

Global energy perspectives: A summary of the joint study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)

Global energy perspectives 2050 [Globale Energieperspektiven 2050] ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)

Decarbonizing the global energy system ... More

Grubler,A. (1996)

Perspectives energetiques globales a l'horizon 2050 ... More

Grubler,A. (1996)

Time for a change: On the patterns of diffusion of innovation ... More

Foray,D. Grubler,A. (1996)

Technology and the environment: An overview ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Ishitani,H. Johansson,T.B. Marland,G. Moreira,J.R. Rogner,H.-H. (1996)

Energy primer ... More

Michaelis,L. Bleviss,D. Orfeuil,J.-P. Pischinger,R. Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (1996)

Mitigation options in the transportation sector ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (1996)

Energy and the Protection of the Atmosphere ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)

Decarbonizing the Global Energy System ... More

Foray,D. Grubler,A. (1996)

Technology and the Environment: An Overview ... More

Grubler,A. (1996)

Time for a Change: On the Patterns of Diffusion of Innovation ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Ishitani,H. Johansson,T.B. Marland,G. Moreira,J.R. Rogner,H.-H. (1996)

Energy Primer ... More

Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)

Global Energy Perspectives: A Summary of the Joint Study by IIASA and World Energy Council ... More

Buettner,T. Grubler,A. (1995)

The birth of a "green generation"? Generational dynamics of resource consumption patterns ... More

Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. (1995)

Working less and living longer: Long-term trends in working time and time budgets ... More

Alcamo,J. Bouwman,A. Edmonds,J. Grubler,A. Morita,T. Sugandhy,A. (1995)

An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios ... More

Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. McDonald,A. Messner,S. Nakicenovic,N. Rogner,H.-H. Schrattenholzer,L. (1995)

Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond ... More

Grubler,A. Kirsch,D. (1995)

Social behavior: Limiting global change or limits for mitigation? ... More

Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. (1995)

Working Less and Living Longer: Long-term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets ... More

Buettner,T. Grubler,A. (1995)

The Birth of a "Green" Generation? Generational Dynamics of Resource Consumption Patterns ... More

Alcamo,J. Bouwman,A. Edmonds,J. Grubler,A. Morita,T. Sugandhy,A. (1995)

An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios ... More

Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. Nakicenovic,N. (1995)

A Summary of the Joint IIASA and WEC Study on Long-Term Energy Perspectives ... More

Grubler,A. (1995)

Time for a Change: Rates of Diffusion of Ideas, Technologies, and Social Behaviors ... More

Grubler,A. (1995)

Industrialization as a Historical Phenomenon ... More

Grubler,A. (1994)

The transportation sector: Growing demand and emissions ... More

Grubler,A. (1994)

Technology and global change: Land-use, past and present ... More

Grubler,A. (1994)

Global energy strategies ... More

Grubler,A. (1994)

Energy strategies and CO2 mitigation ... More

Grubler,A. (1994)

Industrialization as a historical phenomenon ... More

Grubler,A. Hoell,O. Lichem,W. Rakos,C. (1994)

Environment and Development ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1994)

International Burden Sharing in Greenhouse Gas Reduction ... More

Grubler,A. (1994)

Industrialization as a Historical Phenomenon ... More

Grubler,A. (1994)

A Comparison of Global and Regional Energy Emission Scenarios ... More

Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. (1994)

Working Less and Living Longer: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets ... More

Buettner,T. Grubler,A. (1994)

The Birth of a "Green" Generation? Generational Dynamics of Resource Consumption Patterns ... More

Grubler,A. (1993)

The Transportation Sector: Growing Demand and Emissions ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Inaba,A. Messner,S. Nilsson,S. Nishimura,Y. Rogner,H.-H. Schaefer,A. Schrattenholzer,L. Strubegger,M. Swisher,J. Victor,D.G. Wilson,D. (1993)

Long-Term Strategies for Mitigating Global Warming ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Schaefer,A. (1993)

Summary of IPCC/EIS-IIASA International Workshop on Energy-Related Greenhouse Gases Reduction and Removal. 1-2 October 1992 ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Schaefer,A. (1992)

Dynamics of Transport and Energy Systems. History of Development and a Scenario for the Future ... More

Grubler,A. (1992)

Technology and Global Change: Land Use, Past and Present ... More

Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (1991)

Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1991)

Evolution of Transport Systems: Past and Future ... More

Grubler,A. Fujii,Y. (1991)

Inter-generational and Spatial Equity Issues of Carbon Accounts ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1991)

Long Waves, Technology Diffusion, and Substitution ... More

Grubler,A. (1990)

The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport ... More

Astakhov,A. Grubler,A. Mookhin,A. (1990)

Technology Diffusion in the Coal-Mining Industry of the USSR - An Interim Assessment ... More

Foray,D. Grubler,A. (1990)

Morphological Analysis, Diffusion and Lock-out of Technologies: Ferrous Casting in France and the FRG ... More

Grubler,A. Nowotny,H. (1990)

Towards the Fifth Kondratiev Upswing: Elements of an Emerging New Growth Phase and Possible Development Trajectories ... More

Astakhov,A. Grubler,A. Mookhin,A. (1989)

Technology Diffusion in the Coal Mining Industry of the USSR: An Interim Assessment ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1988)

The dynamic evolution of methane technologies ... More

Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1988)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy ... More

Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1987)

The Dynamic Evolution of Methane Technologies ... More

Astakhov,A. Grubler,A. (1984)

Resource Requirements and Economics of the Coal-Mining Process: A Comparative Analysis of Mines in Selected Countries ... More

Grubler,A. Katsonis,F. Mazzoni,B. Wooding,S. (1984)

A Proposal for an Environmental Decision Support System at the Regional Level: Concepts, Support Methodology, Tools and their Terminology ... More

Grenon,M. Grubler,A. (1983)

Energy and Mineral Resources Data Bases ... More

Grubler,A. Hoffman,R. McInnis,B. (1982)

Process Information Systems: A Synthesis of Two Independent Approaches ... More

Grubler,A. (1980)

Resource Requirements for Industrial Processes: A WELMM Comparison of Energy Chains ... More