Arnulf Grübler
Arnulf Grubler (Grübler) first joined IIASA in 1976 to work with the Energy Systems Program and currently works as a Senior Research Scholar and Acting Program Leader of the Transitions to New Technologies Program. He also holds a part-time appointment as Professor in the Field of Energy and Technology at the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, New Haven, USA. His teaching and research focuses on the long-term history and future of technology and the environment with emphasis on energy, transport, and communication systems.
Prof. Grubler received his master's degree in engineering from the Technical University of Vienna, where he was also awarded his PhD. He completed his Habilitation (venia legendi in systems science of environment and technology) at the Mining University Leoben, Austria. He is also foreign member elect of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences.
Prof. Grubler has been serving as Lead and Contributing Author and as Review Editor for the Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize). He was also Convening Lead and Coordinating Author for three knowledge modules of the Global Energy Assessment completed in 2012. He currently serves on the editorial boards of Carbon Management and Journal of Industrial Ecology.
He has published widely as author, coauthor, or editor of twelve books, three special journal issues, over 100 peer reviewed articles and book chapters, and over 30 additional professional papers in the domains of (modeling of) technological change and diffusion, long wave theory, historical transitions in energy and transport systems, long-term future scenarios, energy technology innovation systems and policy, climate change, and resource economics.
Examples of his latest publications include the book Energizing Sustainable Cities: Assessing Urban Energy, (edited together with David Fisk), Earthscan, 2013; and two major review articles on energy technology innovations systems and innovation portfolio biases: "The Energy Technology Innovation System", Annual Review of Environment and Resources 2012, 37:137-162 (with K. Sims Gallagher, L. Kuhl, G. Nemet, and C. Wilson); and "Marginalization of End-use Technologies in Energy Innovation for Climate Protection". Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, 26 October 2012:780-788.
Last update: 30-JAN-2013
McCollum,D.L. Krey,V. Riahi,K. Kolp,P. Grubler,A. Makowski,M. Nakicenovic,N. (2013)
Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges ... More
Wilson,C. Grubler,A. Gallagher,K.S. Nemet,G.F. (2012)
Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection ... More
Wilson,C. Grubler,A. Bauer,N. Krey,V. Riahi,K. (2012)
Future capacity growth of energy technologies: Are scenarios consistent with historical evidence? ... More
Gallagher,K.S. Grubler,A. Kuhl,L. Nemet,G. Wilson,C. (2012)
The Energy Technology Innovation System ... More
Grubler,A. (2012)
Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales ... More
Riahi,K. Dentener,F. Gielen,D. Grubler,A. Jewell,J. Klimont,Z. Krey,V. McCollum,D.L. Pachauri,S. Rao,S. van Ruijven,B. van Vuuren,D.P. Wilson,C. (2012)
Chapter 17: Energy pathways for sustainable development ... More
Grubler,A. Aguayo,F. Gallagher,K. Hekkert,M. Jiang,K. Mytelka,L. Neij,L. Nemet,G. Wilson,C. (2012)
Chapter 24: Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS) ... More
Grubler,A. Bai,X. Buettner,T. Dhakal,S. Fisk,D.J. Ichinose,T. Keirstead,J.E. Sammmer,G. Satterthwaite,D. Schulz,N.B. Shah,N. Steinberger,J. Weisz,H. (2012)
Chapter 18: Urban energy systems ... More
Grubler,A. Johansson,T.B. Muncada,L. Nakicenovic,N. Pachauri,S. Riahi,K. Rogner,H.-H. Strupeit,L. (2012)
Chapter 1: Energy primer ... More
Grubler,A. Fisk,D. (2012)
Energizing Sustainable Cities: Assessing Urban Energy ... More
Pachauri,S. Grubler,A. Krey,V. Riahi,K. (2012)
Der Nutzen liegt auf der Hand ... More
Grubler,A. (2012)
The urban energy challenge ... More
Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2011)
Lessons from the history of technological change for clean energy scenarios and policies ... More
Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2011)
A Comparative Analysis of Annual Market Investments in Energy Supply and End-use Technologies ... More
Wilson,C. Grubler,A. (2011)
Lessons from the History of Technology and Global Change for the Emerging Clean Technology Cluster ... More
Manning,M.R. Edmonds,J. Emori,S. Grubler,A. Hibbard,K. Joos,F. Kainuma,M. Keeling,R.F. Kram,T. Manning,A.C. Meinshausen,M. Moss,R. Nakicenovic,N. Riahi,K. Rose,S.K. Smith,S. Swart,R. van Vuuren,D.P. (2010)
Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios ... More
Grubler,A. Riahi,K. (2010)
Do governments have the right mix in their energy R&D portfolios? ... More
Grubler,A. (2010)
The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing ... More
Grubler,A. (2010)
Costly lessons of nuclear scale-up ... More
Grubler,A. Riahi,K. (2010)
Getting the right balance in energy R&D portfolios ... More
Grubler,A. (2009)
Determinants of the future of fossil extractive industries ... More
Krey,V. Canadell,J.G. Nakicenovic,N. Abe,Y. Andruleit,H. Archer,D. Grubler,A. Hamilton,N.T.M. Johnson,A. Kostov,V. Lamarque,J.-F. Langhorne,N. Nisbet,E.G. O'Neill,B.C. Riahi,K. Riedel,M. Wang,W. Yakushev,V. (2009)
Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or climate threat? ... More
Ma,T. Grubler,A. Nakamori,Y. (2009)
Modeling technology adoptions for sustainable development under increasing returns, uncertainty, and heterogeneous agents ... More
Grubler,A. Pachauri,S. (2009)
Problems with burden-sharing proposal among one billion high emitters (Letters) ... More
Grubler,A. (2009)
An Assessment of the Costs of the French Nuclear PWR Program 1970-2000 ... More
Grubler,A. (2008)
Energy transitions ... More
Ma,T. Grubler,A. (2008)
The evolution of technological complexity: An agent-based simulation model of the global energy system ... More
Ma,T. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Arthur,W.B. (2008)
Technologies as agents of change: A simulation model of the evolving complexity of the global energy system ... More
Riahi,K. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (2007)
Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization ... More
Grubler,A. O'Neill,B.C. Riahi,K. Chirkov,V. Goujon,A. Kolp,P. Prommer,I. Scherbov,S. Slentoe,E. (2007)
Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Riahi,K. Wagner,F. Fischer,G. Keppo,I. Obersteiner,M. O'Neill,B.C. Rao,S. Tubiello,F.N. (2007)
Integrated assessment of uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation: Introduction and overview ... More
Halsnaes,K. Shukla,P.R. Ahuja,D. Akumu,G. Beale,R. Edmonds,J. Gollier,C. Grubler,A. (2007)
Framing issues (Chapter 2) ... More
Dearing,J.A. Graumlich,L.J. Grubler,A. (2007)
Integrating socioenvironmental interactions over centennial timescales - Needs and issues ... More
Grubler,A. O'Neill,B.C. van Vuuren,D.P. (2006)
Avoiding hazards of best-guess climate scenarios ... More
Grubler,A. (2006)
Doing more with less: Improving the environment through green engineering ... More
Riahi,K. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (2006)
IIASA Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI) Long-term Emissions and Climate Stabilization Scenarios ... More
Grubler,A. (2006)
Doing More with Less - Improving the Environment through Green Engineering ... More
Grubler,A. (2005)
Energy transitions ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Chirkov,V. Kolp,P. (2005)
Synthetic Fuel Technology Adoption under Climatic Constraints in the Asian Region ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Alcamo,J. Davis,G. Fenhann,J. Hare,B. Mori,S. Pepper,B. Pitcher,H. Riahi,K. Rogner,H.-H. La Rovere,E.L. Sankovski,A. Schlesinger,M. Shukla,P.R. Swart,R. Victor,N. Jung,T.Y. (2004)
Emissions scenarios: A final response ... More
Grubler,A. (2004)
Transitions in energy use ... More
Grubler,A. (2004)
Technology and Global Change ... More
Grubler,A. (2004)
Technology and Global Change ... More
Grubler,A. Chirkov,V. Nakicenovic,N. Slentoe,E. (2004)
Long-Term Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Asian Region ... More
Grubler,A. (2004)
Transitions in Energy Use ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Gaffin,S. Jung,T.T. Kram,T. Morita,T. Pitcher,H. Riahi,K. Schlesinger,M. Shukla,P.R. van Vuuren,D.P. Davis,G. Michaelis,L. Swart,R. Victor,N. (2003)
IPCC SRES revisited: A response ... More
O'Neill,B.C. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Obersteiner,M. Riahi,K. Schrattenholzer,L. Toth,F.L. (2003)
Planning for future energy resources ... More
Grubler,A. (2003)
Technology, global change and industrial ecology ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Nordhaus,W.D. (2002)
Technological Change and the Environment ... More
Grubler,A. (2002)
Trends in Global Emissions: Carbon, Sulfur, and Nitrogen ... More
Hourcade,J.C. Ha-Duong,M. Grubler,A. Tol,R.S.J. (2001)
INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies ... More
Kates,R.W. Clark,W.C. Corell,R. Grubler,A. Hall,J.M. (2001)
Sustainability science ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (2001)
Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate ... More
Prather,M. Ehhalt,D. Dentener,F. Derwent,R. Grubler,A. (2001)
Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases ... More
Grubler,A. (2001)
Trends in global emissions: Carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen ... More
Kates,R.W. Clark,W.C. Corell,R. Hall,J.M. Jaeger,C.C. Lowe,I. McCarthy,J.J. Schellnhuber,H.J. Bolin,B. Dickson,N.M. Faucheux,S. Gallopin,G.C. Grubler,A. Huntley,B. Jaeger,J. Jodha,N.S. Kasperson,R.E. Mabogunje,A. Matson,P. Mooney,H. Moore III,B. O'Riordan,T. Svedin,U. (2001)
Sustainability Science ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (2000)
Energy and the protection of the atmosphere ... More
Grubler,A. (2000)
Resources and society ... More
Grubler,A. (2000)
Managing the global environment ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Davidson,O. Davis,G. Grubler,A. (2000)
Summary for policy makers ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Alcamo,J. Grubler,A. Riahi,K. Roehrl,R.A. Rogner,H.-H. Victor,N. (2000)
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Gritsevskii,A. Grubler,A. Riahi,K. (2000)
Global Natural Gas Perspectives ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (2000)
Energy and the Protection of the Atmosphere ... More
Grubler,A. (2000)
Managing the Global Environment ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)
Modeling technological change: Implications for the global environment ... More
Grubler,A. (1999)
Long-term energy futures: The critical role of technology ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)
Dynamics of energy technologies and global change ... More
Grubler,A. (1999)
Global energy perspectives: 2050 and beyond ... More
Klaassen,G. Grubler,A. Schrattenholzer,L. (1999)
Towards New Energy Infrastructures in Eurasia: A Background Paper ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)
Modeling Technological Change: Implications for the Global Environment ... More
Grubler,A. (1999)
Long-Term Energy Futures: The Critical Role of Technology ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Victor,D.G. (1999)
Dynamics of Energy Technologies and Global Change ... More
Grubler,A. (1998)
Globale Energieperspektiven ... More
Grubler,A. (1998)
From well or mine to the consumer: Long-term energy perspectives ... More
Grubler,A. Messner,S. (1998)
Technological change and the timing of mitigation measures ... More
Grubler,A. (1998)
A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. McDonald,A. (1998)
Global Energy Perspectives ... More
Grubler,A. (1998)
Technology and Global Change ... More
Grubler,A. (1998)
A Review of Global and Regional Sulfur Emission Scenarios ... More
Grubler,A. Messner,S. (1998)
Technological Change and the Timing of Mitigation Measures ... More
Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)
Global energy perspectives: A summary of the joint study by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy Council ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)
Globale Energieperspektiven 2050 ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)
Decarbonizing the global energy system ... More
Grubler,A. (1996)
Perspectives energetiques globales a l'horizon 2050 ... More
Grubler,A. (1996)
Time for a change: On the patterns of diffusion of innovation ... More
Foray,D. Grubler,A. (1996)
Technology and the environment: An overview ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Ishitani,H. Johansson,T.B. Marland,G. Moreira,J.R. Rogner,H.-H. (1996)
Energy primer ... More
Michaelis,L. Bleviss,D. Orfeuil,J.-P. Pischinger,R. Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (1996)
Mitigation options in the transportation sector ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (1996)
Energy and the Protection of the Atmosphere ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)
Decarbonizing the Global Energy System ... More
Foray,D. Grubler,A. (1996)
Technology and the Environment: An Overview ... More
Grubler,A. (1996)
Time for a Change: On the Patterns of Diffusion of Innovation ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Ishitani,H. Johansson,T.B. Marland,G. Moreira,J.R. Rogner,H.-H. (1996)
Energy Primer ... More
Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. Nakicenovic,N. (1996)
Global Energy Perspectives: A Summary of the Joint Study by IIASA and World Energy Council ... More
Buettner,T. Grubler,A. (1995)
The birth of a "green generation"? Generational dynamics of resource consumption patterns ... More
Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. (1995)
Working less and living longer: Long-term trends in working time and time budgets ... More
Alcamo,J. Bouwman,A. Edmonds,J. Grubler,A. Morita,T. Sugandhy,A. (1995)
An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios ... More
Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. McDonald,A. Messner,S. Nakicenovic,N. Rogner,H.-H. Schrattenholzer,L. (1995)
Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond ... More
Grubler,A. Kirsch,D. (1995)
Social behavior: Limiting global change or limits for mitigation? ... More
Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. (1995)
Working Less and Living Longer: Long-term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets ... More
Buettner,T. Grubler,A. (1995)
The Birth of a "Green" Generation? Generational Dynamics of Resource Consumption Patterns ... More
Alcamo,J. Bouwman,A. Edmonds,J. Grubler,A. Morita,T. Sugandhy,A. (1995)
An Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios ... More
Grubler,A. Jefferson,M. Nakicenovic,N. (1995)
A Summary of the Joint IIASA and WEC Study on Long-Term Energy Perspectives ... More
Grubler,A. (1995)
Time for a Change: Rates of Diffusion of Ideas, Technologies, and Social Behaviors ... More
Grubler,A. (1995)
Industrialization as a Historical Phenomenon ... More
Grubler,A. (1994)
The transportation sector: Growing demand and emissions ... More
Grubler,A. (1994)
Technology and global change: Land-use, past and present ... More
Grubler,A. (1994)
Global energy strategies ... More
Grubler,A. (1994)
Energy strategies and CO2 mitigation ... More
Grubler,A. (1994)
Industrialization as a historical phenomenon ... More
Grubler,A. Hoell,O. Lichem,W. Rakos,C. (1994)
Environment and Development ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1994)
International Burden Sharing in Greenhouse Gas Reduction ... More
Grubler,A. (1994)
Industrialization as a Historical Phenomenon ... More
Grubler,A. (1994)
A Comparison of Global and Regional Energy Emission Scenarios ... More
Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. (1994)
Working Less and Living Longer: Long-Term Trends in Working Time and Time Budgets ... More
Buettner,T. Grubler,A. (1994)
The Birth of a "Green" Generation? Generational Dynamics of Resource Consumption Patterns ... More
Grubler,A. (1993)
The Transportation Sector: Growing Demand and Emissions ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. Inaba,A. Messner,S. Nilsson,S. Nishimura,Y. Rogner,H.-H. Schaefer,A. Schrattenholzer,L. Strubegger,M. Swisher,J. Victor,D.G. Wilson,D. (1993)
Long-Term Strategies for Mitigating Global Warming ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Schaefer,A. (1993)
Summary of IPCC/EIS-IIASA International Workshop on Energy-Related Greenhouse Gases Reduction and Removal. 1-2 October 1992 ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. Schaefer,A. (1992)
Dynamics of Transport and Energy Systems. History of Development and a Scenario for the Future ... More
Grubler,A. (1992)
Technology and Global Change: Land Use, Past and Present ... More
Nakicenovic,N. Grubler,A. (1991)
Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1991)
Evolution of Transport Systems: Past and Future ... More
Grubler,A. Fujii,Y. (1991)
Inter-generational and Spatial Equity Issues of Carbon Accounts ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1991)
Long Waves, Technology Diffusion, and Substitution ... More
Grubler,A. (1990)
The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures: Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in Transport ... More
Astakhov,A. Grubler,A. Mookhin,A. (1990)
Technology Diffusion in the Coal-Mining Industry of the USSR - An Interim Assessment ... More
Foray,D. Grubler,A. (1990)
Morphological Analysis, Diffusion and Lock-out of Technologies: Ferrous Casting in France and the FRG ... More
Grubler,A. Nowotny,H. (1990)
Towards the Fifth Kondratiev Upswing: Elements of an Emerging New Growth Phase and Possible Development Trajectories ... More
Astakhov,A. Grubler,A. Mookhin,A. (1989)
Technology Diffusion in the Coal Mining Industry of the USSR: An Interim Assessment ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1988)
The dynamic evolution of methane technologies ... More
Ausubel,J.H. Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1988)
Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy ... More
Grubler,A. Nakicenovic,N. (1987)
The Dynamic Evolution of Methane Technologies ... More
Astakhov,A. Grubler,A. (1984)
Resource Requirements and Economics of the Coal-Mining Process: A Comparative Analysis of Mines in Selected Countries ... More
Grubler,A. Katsonis,F. Mazzoni,B. Wooding,S. (1984)
A Proposal for an Environmental Decision Support System at the Regional Level: Concepts, Support Methodology, Tools and their Terminology ... More
Grenon,M. Grubler,A. (1983)
Energy and Mineral Resources Data Bases ... More
Grubler,A. Hoffman,R. McInnis,B. (1982)
Process Information Systems: A Synthesis of Two Independent Approaches ... More
Grubler,A. (1980)
Resource Requirements for Industrial Processes: A WELMM Comparison of Energy Chains ... More