IMPACT2C - Quantifying projected Impacts under 2°C of warming

Impacts of a global temperature increase up to 2°C from pre-industrial levels in Europe and most vulnerable regions of the world

Impact 2C project logo

Impact 2C project logo

Overview

Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C demands that discussions are informed by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits. IMPACT2C enhances knowledge, quantifies climate change impacts, and adopts a clear and logical structure, with climate and impacts modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs, as well as potential responses, within a pan-European sector based analysis. IMPACT2C utilizes a range of models within a multidisciplinary international expert team and assesses effects on water, energy, infrastructure, coasts, tourism, forestry, agriculture, ecosystems services, and health and air quality-climate interactions. IMPACT2C introduces key innovations. First, harmonized socioeconomic assumptions/scenarios will be used, to ensure that both individual and cross-sector assessments are aligned to the 2°C (1.5°C scenario for both impacts and adaptation, e.g. in relation to land-use pressures between agriculture and forestry. Second, it has a core theme of uncertainty, and will develop a methodological framework integrating the uncertainties within and across the different sectors, in a consistent way. In so doing, analysis of adaptation responses under uncertainty will be enhanced. Finally, a cross-sectoral perspective is adopted to complement the sector analysis.

The linked video below, produced by Impact 2C consortium members at ENEA, provides a brief overview of the project's research goals and policy relevance.


A number of case studies will be developed for particularly vulnerable areas, subject to multiple impacts (e.g. the Mediterranean), with the focus being on cross-sectoral interactions
(e.g. land use competition) and cross-cutting themes (e.g. cities). The project also assesses climate change impacts in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins), and the Maldives. IMPACT2C integrates and synthesizes project findings suitable for awareness raising and are readily communicable to a wide audience, and relevant for policy negotiations.

IIASA Research

Researchers from IIASA are heavily involved in the modeling of biophysical and economic impacts of projected 2 degrees of warming; the ESM program is currently contributing to estimates of impacts to the agricultural, forestry, and ecosystem services sectors via the use of the EPIC and GLOBIOM models, while RPV researchers will use the outputs from ESM modelling to assess possible economic impacts to the same sectors within a Sustainable Livelihoods Approach framework.

These estimates will be informed by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways currently under development at IIASA, and outputs of RPV research will help to provide policymakers with a better understanding of possible futures for the EU under climate change, and in particular will help to emphasize the idea of a 5 capitals approach, incorporating estimates of natural, physical, financial, human, and social capital stock assets into assessments of future climate vulnerability.


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Last edited: 27 May 2014

CONTACT DETAILS

Reinhard Mechler

Deputy Program Director

Risk and Resilience

T +43(0) 2236 807 313

Petr Havlik

Deputy Program Director

Ecosystems Services and Management

T +43(0) 2236 807 511

Timeframe

October 2011 - September 2015

Project Homepage

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313