Myopic MESSAGE is a myopic or “limited foresight” version of the long-term energy system model, MESSAGE.

The model was developed to gain a better understanding of the implications for energy system evolution under decision-making conditions with a short- or medium-term time horizon.

About Myopic MESSAGE

In its basic form MESSAGE is a model with perfect foresight (i.e., it optimizes costs over the entire time horizon of the model). This equates to having a central planner with a very long-term perspective. But in reality, policy decisions are rarely made with decades into the future in mind.

Myopic MESSAGE allows the implications of alternative planning horizons for decision making to be analyzed. The framework is particularly useful for explicitly assessing the consequences of short-term and medium-term decisions in the context of achieving long-term objectives. 

Myopic MESSAGE also provides a suitable framework for exploring "path-dependency" and "lock-in effects" in the energy system.

How Myopic MESSAGE works

Myopic MESSAGE first runs only over a limited period into the future, say, until the year 2050. Only when the results until 2050 are known, does the model run over a longer time frame, from 2050 until, say, the year 2100. 

The Myopic MESSAGE model is thus, in effect, a multi-step way of running the MESSAGE model. The model can analyze any period of time and then return to optimizing costs over whatever remaining period is selected. 

Stylized emissions pathways for limiting global temperature change to 2°C with short-term vs. long-term emissions tradeoffs.

Background

Myopic MESSAGE was developed by IIASA's Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI), whose activities ranged across eight IIASA programs.

The GGI, which finished its work in 2010, addressed questions critical to understanding and responding to the challenges of climate change.

The first applications of Myopic MESSAGE were geared toward exploration of interim targets(mid-century) for long-term climate stabilization. The results were presented at the Copenhagen climate change conference in spring 2009.

Last edited: 17 February 2012