About MESSAGE-Access

The MESSAGE-Access model is a dynamic linear optimization model developed at IIASA. It is being used to assess to achieve universal access to modern energy by 2030 by accelerating the transition to clean cooking fuels and rural electrification in the regions of South Asia, Pacific Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.

MESSAGE-Access provides a strong modeling framework for analyzing effective policy choices to improve the penetration of modern cooking fuels among the poor and electrifying rural areas. It is the first model to explicitly account for heterogeneous economic conditions and the preferred energy choices of poor populations living in rural and urban settings.

The MESSAGE-Access Model is based on data from nationally representative consumer surveys. This data is used to calibrate the model in the base year to represent the existing patterns of energy use in households distinguished by their place of residence and income level.

A basic micro-economic "choice model" serves as the backbone of the new model. This is then expanded to incorporate different practical determinants relevant to the choice problems in the model. The model chooses the least-cost equipment and fuel combination that satisfies household energy demand. 

The choice model is embedded within the overall IIASA MESSAGE model - a global-scale, multi-region, energy system model. The linkage with the larger MESSAGE energy system model allows for residential energy use to be influenced by macro feedbacks from the larger energy system, particularly via energy prices.

Background

Past attempts to develop models of improving access to clean energy for cooking and electricity have failed to take account of consumer preferences. MESSAGE-Access acknowledges that different consumer groups have different preference for stoves and fuels, based on convenience and constraints such as costs and credit availability.

The collection and burning of woody biomass to cook food has consequences on many levels. It traps women (in particular) in poverty as they must devote much of their time to wood collection. It affects the environment and climate due to deforestation and the emission of black carbon and greenhouse gases that result from burning, and tragically it is costing the lives of many woman and children in the developing world, predominantly in India, sub-Saharan African nations, and China.

As of 2011, over 20% of the world’s population still lives without electric lighting, and the number of people without access to electricity is on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa. Many income-generating activities require access to electricity, and adequate lighting can hardly be supplied by alternative fuels such as kerosene. Using kerosene for lighting also has negative health impacts at the household level.

Challenges

The main challenges for the adoption of modern fuels, like LPG, are the high up-front investment cost and credit constraints that affect consumers' energy-related decisions. Subsidies alone are inefficient for promoting modern fuels, as they do not affect the steep up-front investment costs. Improved financing opportunities for the appliance investment would ease the burden of purchasing modern stoves, but high fuel cost could still constrain populations from adopting cleaner-combusting fuels. Combining both policies is the most effective in facilitating the switch to modern fuels (LPG in the model), by all households. 

Effective methods for electrification depend highly on future electricity demands and geographical location of settlements. New technologies such as off-grid technology or decentralized distributed generation (DDG) could play an important role, particularly in the early stage of development when demands are low, but grid electricity could become more viable under higher demands in the future. Identifying key factors that determine the least cost way to achieve universal electrification under different development pathways is crucial to directing investments most effectively.

Last edited: 14 September 2012