Using GEO for Early Warning and Food Security in East Africa (GEOSAF)

Overview

In Eastern Africa, the influence of extreme weather events, in particular those related to flood and drought, hinders sustained development in agriculture and increases the difficulty of maintaining efficient water management. Although weather cannot be changed or modified, better monitoring and forecasting on both short and seasonal timescales can significantly improve adaptation and mitigation strategies.  Such forecasting can also improve the planning and conducting of humanitarian relief operations.

In East Africa there is currently only a very crude in-situ monitoring network for weather and climate data.  GEOSAF researchers will create short-term soil moisture forecasts using several crop growth and soil moisture models (ECMWF, EPIC, ALADIN), and the quality of the modelling data will be determined using a variety of satellite observation products.

By measuring the quality of forecasts and the predictability of weather-related events new insights into the ability of satellite-based applications to provide a more accurate early warnings of droughts, floods, and other severe weather events that could threaten East African agriculture. 

IIASA Research

IIASA researchers are developing a prototype system for early warning that will enhance existing products and bulletins with soil moisture information from satellites, seasonal meteorological forecasts and crop yield predictions from the EPIC model for the Horn of Africa. The project will assess the added value of soil moisture information and link this to profiles of NDVI, FAPAR and EVI. User requirements are driven by interviews with users of early warning information and a review of existing early warning bulletins. An interactive tool for querying soil moisture and NDVI profiles at the pixel and sub-national administrative unit will be developed for both the internet and a mobile platform. 

Last edited: 28 September 2012