Assessing Climate Change Impacts on China’s Agro-Ecosystem

 Overview

This project, “Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Intensive Human Activities on China's Agro-Ecosystem and its Supply Potentials,” brings together researchers from IIASA and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) to do analysis using a new multi-scale agro-ecosystem model that has been developed to build on the strengths of two leading crop models already in use –Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT), and the Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ). The goal is to use the new model to identify climate change adaptation options for China’s agricultural sector.

The new integrated model allows for a novel and much needed approach to analyze farm-level (DSSAT) and regional (AEZ) agricultural dynamics and associated water relations. The integrated modeling framework has been validated with field observation data, remote sensing data, and socio-economic statistical datasets. Thirty year (1981-2010) observed agriculture site data were used to test model predictions for recent climate change impacts on Chinese agriculture production.

Future short-term and long-term climate impacts are analyzed by driving a Regional Climate Model with results from two General Circulation Models for the simulation of changes in crop productivity and water use. Agronomic impacts of future climate-induced changes of Chinese agricultural systems are assessed using a spatial agro-system model and county-level databases of IIASA’s CHINAGRO framework.

The results will provide an important contribution to global research on the ability of agricultural systems to adapt to climate change. The research will provide support for developing policy decisions that enable sustainable adaptation of China’s agriculture to globalization and climate change.

Last edited: 24 July 2012