Integrated robust management of food-energy-water-land use nexus for sustainable development

This project is a new stage of the IIASA-NASU project “Integrated modeling of food, energy and water management for sustainable social, economic, and environmental developments” conducted in 2012-2016. The goal of this project is to develop further and implement novel systems analysis approaches addressing problems of common interest for Ukraine, IIASA and globally, emerging in designing solutions for robust sustainable Food-Energy-Water-Environmental-Social (FEWES) nexus management, which cannot be solved with traditional approaches. The robustness is achieved by spatially-explicit portfolios of interdependent strategic (long-term) and adaptive (short-term) feasible solutions. 

© Diianadimitrova | Dreamstime.com

© Diianadimitrova | Dreamstime.com

Traditionally, FEWES sectors are being governed by independent policies, and the impact of each policy on the other systems is inadequately considered — if at all. The project investigates coordinated robust solutions accounting for complex linkages and differences in spatial and temporal scales between agriculture, energy, water systems, potential exogenously and endogenously generated collective systemic risks and new coherent feasible policies enabling FEWES nexus security. The policies take into account inter-regional and international trade, current and future national and international agreements and directives (WTO agreement, EU Water Framework Directive, Common Agricultural Policies, etc.), pollution and GHG emissions targets, current and future energy and water technologies, insurance markets, financial instruments, grain and water storage, direct and indirect exchange of resources, e.g. pollution trading, virtual water trade, etc.

The goal of the project is to develop a harmonized approach for integrated robust management of FEWES nexus under natural and human-related intentional and unintentional threats. Developing new linkage methods under asymmetric information allows integrated modeling without revealing information about individual sectorial models.  In order to achieve long-term sustainable functioning of FEWES systems, robust policies comprise both interdependent strategic long-term (anticipative, ex-ante) decisions and short-term (adaptive, ex-post) decisions (adjustments), which are designed via integrated stochastic optimization models based on novel ideas of systems’ linkage under asymmetric information and other uncertainties. Nested strategic-operational and local-global models, including deterministic and stochastic GLOBIOM, are used in combination with non-Bayesian probabilistic downscaling procedures for analyzing and managing global systemic risks having local implications. Quantile-based indicators are used to cope with new type of risks and extreme events generated by decisions of various stakeholders and potential adversaries. A harmonized Ukrainian data base is compiled to serve as models input. Appropriate strategic-adaptive Decision Support System (DSS) are developed enabling a dialogue among national and international stakeholders.  

In contrast to traditional studies using different research principles, isolated (independent) models and data from diverse regions at different time intervals, this project aims at systematic and coherent multimodel approaches by a research team from seven non-profit institutes of the National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine, working in collaboration with IIASA and other national and international organizations.


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Last edited: 06 December 2018

CONTACT DETAILS

Yurii Yermoliev

Institute Scholar

Advanced Systems Analysis

T +43(0) 2236 807 208

CONTACT DETAILS

Tatiana Ermolieva

Research Scholar

Ecosystems Services and Management

T +43(0) 2236 807 581

Timeframe

2017 - 2021

Research project

Integrated modeling of food, energy and water management for sustainable social, economic, and environmental developments

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313