22 April 2014 - 25 April 2014
EMCSR 2014: Civilization at the Crossroads – Response and Responsibility of the Systems Sciences
IIASA is co-organizing a conference session. This session demonstrates how novel system analytical methods can support the generation and evaluation of options for complex contemporary policy issues. Specifically, IIASA researchers present applications of advanced mathematical methods to decision-making problems for the management of land use, renewable resources and disaster risk.
Elena Rovenskaya is moderating the session while some IIASA scientists are giving presentations:
- Ulf Dieckmann: Modeling consensual bi-lateral negotiations on fishery policy
Ulf Dieckmann presents a methodology that by means of stakeholder-specific utility functions explores the “zones of consensus” regarding fishing quotas. This analysis helps defining fisheries management regimes with compatible objectives of all involved stakeholders.
- Tatiana Ermolieva together with Yuri Ermoliev, Petr Havlik, Aline Mosnier, David Lecler, and Michael Obersteiner: Systemic risks and security management in land use systems: Stochastic GLOBIOM model
Tatiana Ermolieva discusses how advanced stochastic optimization techniques help solving food, (bio)energy, environment, water (FBEW) security problems in the presence of climatic risks accounting for spatio-temporal heterogeneities and interdependencies among FBEW systems. The portfolio of decisions comprises not only strategic decisions on production allocation and grain storages but also market regulations enabling the design of robust integrated policies to maintain security given systemic risks.
- Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler: Catastrophe risk modeling to inform proactive public finance for disasters: A focus on Madagascar
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler presents the latest version of IIASA’s Catastrophe Simulation (CATSIM) model. CATSIM simulates natural disaster losses on public infrastructure and evaluates the financial coping capacity of the government as well as the costs and benefits of vulnerability-reducing options including various risk management strategies. The model has been applied interactively with financial ministry staffs (in countries such as Turkey, Philippines, India, Nepal, Mexico, the Caribbean countries, and most recently in Madagascar) intent on preparing for extreme losses. It illustrates the tradeoffs and choices necessary for proactively managing catastrophic disaster risks.