10 April 2013
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework has been enhanced to study the effects of climate change and socio-economic development on managed water-resource systems through the integration of a Water Resource System (WRS) component: a model of water system management at a river basin scale. Economics within the IGSM is modeled by a 16-region Global CGE model, EPPA, that drives water use in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors for 282 global river basins within 116 economic regions. Results of the impacts of energy policy on the global water sector will be presented.
A methodology to zoom into a detailed analysis of the USA that is linked to the results of the Global IGSM was developed. A 12-region economic model (CGE) of the USA (USREP) is linked with a 131 region electric-sector-only model (NREL’s ReEDS) with a model of Withdrawal and Consumption for Thermo-electric Systems (WiCTS) . These models simulate results driving water requirements estimated for five use sectors, with detailed sub-models employed for analysis of irrigation and electric power. The water system management is applied at 99 river basins for the continental USA. Results of the impacts of energy policy on the USA water sector will be presented.
The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. A technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2-D atmospheric model of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate-model projections will be presented. This approach is demonstrated in the context of an integrated assessment of climate resilient development of the Zambezi River Basin.
Professor Strzepek is a Research Scientist at MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change, Senior Research Associate at UNU-World Institute for Development Economics Research and Professor Emeritus at the University of Colorado.
Last edited: 11 April 2013
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313