The revision of the EU directive on National Emission Ceilings

As a follow-up of the CAFE (Clean Air For Europe) programme, the European Commission proposed in its Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution to revise its directive on National Emission Ceilings to safeguard the achievement of the environmental objectives laid down in the Thematic Strategy. The GAINS model is applied as the central analytical tool to explore quantitive emission ceilings that meet these environmental objectives in a cost-effective way.

Latest development:

In June 2008 it became clear that the European Commission will decide on the revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive at a later and considered more appropriate moment, taking into account the possibility that the European institutions will agree on the Climate and Energy Package by the end of 2008. NEC Report #6 (National Emission Ceilings for 2020 based on the 2008 Climate & Energy Package) analyzes a range of scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution for energy projections that are compatible with the Climate and Energy Package. (Download report and underlying data.)

Earlier steps:

The analytical process for the establishment of national emission ceilings follows a step-wise approach:

• As preparatory steps, input data of the GAINS model have been reviewed by stakeholders from Member States and industry in an extensive series of bilateral consultations with IIASA. A scientific review of the GAINS model will take place in early 2007.
  
• The GAINS model has been applied to develop the NEC baseline projections for future emissions and air quality impacts, as they are likely to emerge as a consequence of current economic trends and the implementation of already agreed air quality legislation. Three baseline projections have been presented to the stakeholders in September 2007 and are documented in the NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 1: Baseline scenarios for the revision of the NEC Emission Ceilings Directive. September 2006. Download document ...
  
• A first round of optimization analyses explored emission control scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. These scenarios have been discussed with the stakeholders in the EU working group on National Emission Ceilings and Policy Instruments (NECPI) in December 2006, and are documented in the NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 2: Emission control scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. December 2006. Download document.
  
• Following further comments from stakeholders, in March 2007 a third round of model analyses explored the translation of the environmental objectives given in the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution into quantitative targets for the NEC analysis. NEC Scenario Analysis Report #3: Cost-optimized reductions of air pollutant emissions in the EU Member States to meet the environmental targets of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution.. Download ...
• For June 2007, IIASA updated the national activity projections with recent information received from Member States and compared them with illustrative projections that explore the potential impacts of a more ambitiious climate policy. The reports demonstrated that future air pollution will be strongly influenced by decision on climate policy, and that cost-optimized emission ceilings will crucially depend on the exact implementation of climate measures. ( NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 4: Updated Baseline Projections for the Revision of the Emission Ceilings Directive of the European Union . December 2006. Download ...,
• NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 5: Cost-effective Emission Reductions to meet the Environmental Targets of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution under Different Greenhouse Gas Constraints. December 2006. Download ...
• In June 2008 it became clear that the European Commission will decide on the revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive at a later and considered more appropriate moment, taking into account the possibility that the European institutions will agree on the Climate and Energy Package by the end of 2008. NEC Report #6 (National Emission Ceilings for 2020 based on the 2008 Climate & Energy Package) analyzes a range of scenarios that meet the environmental objectives of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution for energy projections that are compatible with the Climate and Energy Package. (Download report and underlying data.)

All input data for the GAINS analysis and all results of the baseline and policy scenarios are available from the GAINS-online version at this web site.

Responsible for this page: Markus Amann
Last updated: 11 Jul 2008