Workshop on
Comparisons of GHG Mitigation Efforts between Annex I Countries

May 28-29 , 2009
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Scientific workshop
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
May 28-29, 2009

Background
Various recent national and international studies have estimated mid-term potentials and costs of GHG mitigation measures in Annex I countries. Potentially, such information could provide valuable input to negotiations on further mitigation commitments, in particular for the period after 2012. However, results of the available studies differ due to employed methodologies and exogenous assumptions. The workshop will synthesize findings on which all studies agree, and identify key factors that lead to differences in the estimates of future mitigation potentials and costs.

Approach
On the first day (May 28, 2009) the workshop will review on a sector-by-sector basis the critical issues in estimating future mitigation potentials and costs. This will be done taking the GAINS methodology developed by IIASA as an example, and expert modellers from other teams are invited to comment and present alternative approaches.
On the second day (May 29), the workshop will present existing national and international estimates of mid-term GHG mitigation potentials and associated costs in Annex I countries. It will discuss strengths and weaknesses of alternative approaches, compare estimates from different modelling teams, and identify critical assumptions that influence policy-relevant outcomes. A background document will compare existing estimates, based on key results that are invited from modelling teams in advance of the meeting.
Expected outcome
Policy-relevant findings of the workshop will be presented by the participants at a side event at the UNFCCC Convention subsidiary bodies, Bonn, June 1-12, 2009.
Participants
The workshop aims at participation of modellers and national experts that are involved in estimating mitigation potentials and costs, and in using such estimates for decision making.
Workshop venue and time
The workshop will take place at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria (14 km from Vienna). It will start on May 28, 2009 at 9 am and close on May 29, 2009 at 5 pm. More details can be found in the attached registration form.

Draft Agenda

May 28, 2009: 
Issues in estimating mitigation potentials and costs, including a review of IIASA’s GAINS methodology (see gains.iiasa.ac.at)

• For each topic a presentation of the GAINS methodology (20’), followed by comments from a non-IIASA expert modeller (10’) and general discussion (15’):
• General approach
• Energy sector
• Transport emissions
• Non-CO2 emissions
• LULUCF
• Overall results, sensitivities
• Conclusions

May 29, 2009:
Comparison of national and international estimates of GHG mitigation potentials and costs

• Introduction of existing model approaches (20 minutes each + 15 minutes discussion). Modelling approaches include:

  • GAINS
  • NIES
  • RITE
  • IMAGE
  • EMF
  • POLES
  • OECD ENV linkages study
  • McKinsey
  • various national estimates.
• Comparison of current estimates, reasons for differences:

  • Analysis by IIASA/Ecofys
  • Analysis by NIES
  • Analysis by OECD/IEA.
• Synthesis: Lessons for negotiators (robustness of estimates, key sensitivities, etc.). The workshop aims at a one page document listing the areas where existing estimates agree and the key factors/assumptions that lead to disagreement.

To register, please fill in the registration and hotel reservation sheet and return to IIASA (gottsleb@iiasa.ac.at, Fax: ++43 2236 807-533 before May 10, 2009.

For more information contact Markus Amann at IIASA (amann@iiasa.ac.at).