An approach to modeling landuse change and forest management on a global scale

A geographically explicit approach to modelling landuse change and forestry on a global scale and a respective model are presented. The model simulates decisions of virtual land owners on landuse change (afforest or deforest) and forest management. The decisions are made in cells of a regular geographic grid (e.g. 0.5x0.5 deg). Landuse change decisions are based on comparison of net present values of forestry and agriculture. Forest management decisions are taken considering wood demand, forest productivity and net present value of forestry comparing to a baseline. Pricing of carbon stored in forest biomass, litter and soil alters forest net present value thus influencing landuse change and forest management decisions. Proposed approach allows estimation of marginal abatement costs for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) comparable across countries or regions.

KEYWORDS: Forest management modelling; Global forest model; Landuse change modelling; Policy assessment; REDD